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2023 offseason
#81 · August 18, 2022, 3:27 am
I can see a baseline (based on current players returning) of:
OF: Tatis - Grisham (stronger 2nd half) - Soto
INF: Machado - Kim - Cronenworth - Beaty
C (see note 1): Nola - Alfaro
DH (rotational)/Bench: Campusano - Rosario - Azocar - (see note 2)
… Note 1: Gallagher (out of options) and Sullivan are on the roster and one could likely bump one of the incumbent catchers
… Note 1: Profar is the wild card and gets the 13th position player if he opts in … otherwise Batten (OF/INF) or non-roster Kohlway (OF/1B) get that last slot.
#82 · August 18, 2022, 3:41 am
Pitching is hard to baseline given the opt-out uncertainty of Martinez and Suarez … for now … given their performance and opt-in salary … I will assume they opt in (gets really dicey if they both opt out):
SP: Snell - Darvish - Musgrove - Martinez - Morejon
LHRP: Hader - Pomeranz - Hill
RHRP: Suarez - Garcia - Crismatt - Wilson
13th pitcher select from: Knehr - Baez - Scott - Groome - Weathers … or non-roster Castillo - Cosgrove - Lugo (adds a pretty deep call-up set of options)
So some level of protection if Martinez or Suarez opt out or it they don’t some level of trade chips given the need for RP across MLB.
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Note that (my prediction) is if they went with my baseline for pitching and offense … the Padres would be below the $233MM CBT threshold if everyone opts in and room if some opt out.
#83 · August 18, 2022, 6:28 am
Good call on Beaty. I did a comp on Baseball Reference..obviously Drury much more versatile and 5x more PA's ..but their numbers (career) are almost identical.. Biggest? For me is Its this (2022) the new Drury or just an outlier. Cause the difference is 80 or so OPS points which is significant.
#84 · August 18, 2022, 7:17 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 18, 2022, 6:28 am
Good call on Beaty. I did a comp on Baseball Reference..obviously Drury much more versatile and 5x more PA's ..but their numbers (career) are almost identical.. Biggest? For me is Its this (2022) the new Drury or just an outlier. Cause the difference is 80 or so OPS points which is significant.
On Drury worry about the CINN effect in 2022 bloating is production. Look at Castillanos last year in CINN vs now in PHIL … and he had a better history than Drury.
#85 · August 18, 2022, 7:34 am
Quote from fenn68 on August 18, 2022, 7:17 amQuote from Henry Silvestre on August 18, 2022, 6:28 am
Good call on Beaty. I did a comp on Baseball Reference..obviously Drury much more versatile and 5x more PA's ..but their numbers (career) are almost identical.. Biggest? For me is Its this (2022) the new Drury or just an outlier. Cause the difference is 80 or so OPS points which is significant.
On Drury worry about the CINN effect in 2022 bloating is production. Look at Castillanos last year in CINN vs now in PHIL … and he had a better history than Drury.
I still like Drury.. just not at anything north of $5mil.. Obviously his power plays at Petco in August.. not sure it does in April-May though .. and obviously dead ball vs other could impact all.. but his versatility and what I've seen from his PA's I like
#86 · August 18, 2022, 8:29 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 18, 2022, 7:34 amQuote from fenn68 on August 18, 2022, 7:17 amQuote from Henry Silvestre on August 18, 2022, 6:28 am
Good call on Beaty. I did a comp on Baseball Reference..obviously Drury much more versatile and 5x more PA's ..but their numbers (career) are almost identical.. Biggest? For me is Its this (2022) the new Drury or just an outlier. Cause the difference is 80 or so OPS points which is significant.
On Drury worry about the CINN effect in 2022 bloating is production. Look at Castillanos last year in CINN vs now in PHIL … and he had a better history than Drury.
I still like Drury.. just not at anything north of $5mil.. Obviously his power plays at Petco in August.. not sure it does in April-May though .. and obviously dead ball vs other could impact all.. but his versatility and what I've seen from his PA's I like
Beaty at league minimum vs Drury at $4-5MM ... is there really that much difference in their projection for 2023 to warrant the difference. Could use the money to upgrade elsewhere (see SP).
#87 · August 18, 2022, 8:40 am
Quote from fenn68 on August 18, 2022, 8:29 amQuote from Henry Silvestre on August 18, 2022, 7:34 amQuote from fenn68 on August 18, 2022, 7:17 amQuote from Henry Silvestre on August 18, 2022, 6:28 am
Good call on Beaty. I did a comp on Baseball Reference..obviously Drury much more versatile and 5x more PA's ..but their numbers (career) are almost identical.. Biggest? For me is Its this (2022) the new Drury or just an outlier. Cause the difference is 80 or so OPS points which is significant.
On Drury worry about the CINN effect in 2022 bloating is production. Look at Castillanos last year in CINN vs now in PHIL … and he had a better history than Drury.
I still like Drury.. just not at anything north of $5mil.. Obviously his power plays at Petco in August.. not sure it does in April-May though .. and obviously dead ball vs other could impact all.. but his versatility and what I've seen from his PA's I like
Beaty at league minimum vs Drury at $4-5MM ... is there really that much difference in their projection for 2023 to warrant the difference. Could use the money to upgrade elsewhere (see SP).
I need more Drury data as a Padres for me to answer that.. lol
#88 · August 21, 2022, 11:52 am
Comparing Rizzo and Bell to access value .. Rizzo WAR is > Rizzo is a 3x AS and WS guy..Bell 1x AS... no playoff experience yet..Rizzo signed a 3 + 1 at $16.5 per...(back in 2019) What's Bell worth in 2022..assuming he ends up with career Normal #'s in SD... 3/45.. 4/60? Less?.. Interest was Lowish at Deadline and 1B/DH types usually don't get too many suitors in FA .. not for the Big $$ anyways..
#89 · August 21, 2022, 12:25 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 21, 2022, 11:52 am
Comparing Rizzo and Bell to access value .. Rizzo WAR is > Rizzo is a 3x AS and WS guy..Bell 1x AS... no playoff experience yet..Rizzo signed a 3 + 1 at $16.5 per...(back in 2019) What's Bell worth in 2022..assuming he ends up with career Normal #'s in SD... 3/45.. 4/60? Less?.. Interest was Lowish at Deadline and 1B/DH types usually don't get too many suitors in FA .. not for the Big $$ anyways..
I have Rizzo signing a FA deal with NYY this spring at $32MM/2 years ($16MM AAV) coming off a 2021 with a wRC+ 112 (and good defense at 1B).
Bell is a bit younger and is currently at wRC+ of 128 (with lesser defense) … however if the DH defense is not a factor.
The 2019-22 comparison of wRC+ is Rizzo at 125 and Bell at 121.
So, I would suggest the Rizzo deal is a good comp as is … $32MM/2 years ($16MM AAV). However, given the lack of hitters on the Padres horizon in the near term in the system, might see them go 3 years (even 4) to maybe lower the AAV and get him signed quickly and off the market. Could 4 years get his AAV down to $12.5MM for the security of a guarentee?
#90 · August 25, 2022, 4:09 am
I would guess the results of 2022 will alter the 2023 strategy … not only the remaining performance of the players (and their positions) but the motivation to keep spending beyond the luxury tax threshold. Make a strong run in the playoffs and think Siedler will spend … collapses again and miss the playoffs and maybe avoid adding big payroll options.
One set of decisions will surround the three “player option” guys … that will happen within days after the conclusion of the World Series.
1. Martinez ($6.5MM vs $1.5MM buyout). Martinez is pitching well enough for the Padres to want him back at $6.5MM (especially with the FA pending) but is he pitching so well that he wants to opt out? If he does, would the Padres try to re-sign him on a guaranteed multi-year deal (he is in his early 30s). Under this numbers is a verify strong mid-RP but only OK in his limited SP work. Are you getting a SP or RP … and what is that worth?
2. Suarez ($5.0MM vs $1.0MM buyout). Maybe more under the radar than Martinez but after settling in back in the states and post-injury he has been one of the best RP on the team. Also in his early 30s and a FA after 2023. Padres would probably want him back at $5MM but could he (at worst) get that same contract as a FA with the potential to get a guaranteed multi-year deal? Reasonable chance he opts out … how high / how long would the Padres go to re-sign him?
3. Profar ($7.5MM vs $1.oMM buyout). This is the hard one to project. For most of the season Profar has looked to be as an opt out given 2023 is not an overpay at $7.5MM given his performance in LF defensively and his decent offense (high OBP). Was thinking he could land a multi-year guaranteed deal at a bit more. However, his second half has cratered offensively … still getting on base via walks but zero hitting. Now thinking he opts in BUT beginning to think the Padres may go with the buyout to use the $6.5MM differential to do other upgrades. The return of Tatis in the OF may help that decision and although Grisham is under performing he is a CF and will be just above minimum and provide better versatility
Possible that all three depart … net savings of $15.5MM-19.5MM. Next six weeks (player and team) may make all the difference.