Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 25, 2022, 7:50 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 25, 2022, 7:23 am

Was surprised to see Grisham with 2.2 WAR for this season to date.

 

Yup... almost 1 came from his Hot streak a few weeks ago when he hit like 5 HRs in a short span.... He was like 1.2 a month ago..

I dont mind Grishman at #8 in the order ..I also don't mind Azocar there... We just can't have ..Myers/Grisham/Alfaro in the same lineup at anyone point... I know Tatis helps (lengthen the lineup).. But for 2023 as of now

1. Tatis CF/SS

2. Soto RF

3. MANNY 3B

4.

5. Crone zone 2B

6. Beaty LF

7. Campusano DH

8. Grish/Azocar CF

9. Nola C

 

* Kim SS/2B/3B gets to play vs LHP and Bats #5/6

We need 1B.. and OF'ers

Resign Bell?

Resign Drury?

Profar Option?

Other FA targets..Benintendi/Nimmo/Comforto/Gallo/Abreu/Peralta/Contreras others

If Contreras doesn't get too pricey C/DH .. He may be the best fit from a production /position Upgrade..and would fit right into the #4 spot in the batting order...

Quote from fenn68 on August 25, 2022, 8:02 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 25, 2022, 7:23 am

Was surprised to see Grisham with 2.2 WAR for this season to date.

 

Has to be the the mechanics of creating WAR from season to season. Using Fangraphs, Grisham had a 2.2 WAR in 2021 and is sitting at 1.7 with projections moving him to 2.2+/- by the end of the season.

This while his BA/OBP/SLG are all down and dWAR is about the same. However, he does grade out in the top 10-15 qualified CF in MLB (says something about the lack of CF).

An example where composite stats don’t appear to fit the observable game production (at least by fan standards). The actual number may not be relevant but what is important is that he is near the upper end of qualified CF … due to a lot of poor CF … and that should caution about easily finding an upgrade … and with Grisham being controlled for 3 more years and in 2023 will be low cost he may be back (at worse case the 4th OF).

Too good to get rid of and not good enough to be a major trade chip.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 25, 2022, 8:05 am

P wise

For 2023 (not counting options)

SP

1 Yu

2 Snell

3 Musgrove

4

5 Groome/Khner/Wethers

 

BP

1 Hader (arb $13.5 mil decosion) look like his old self yesterday..albeit on a blow out situation ..still 4 outs 4 SOs vs a team that doesn't strikeout is impressive

Adams/Pomz/Garcia/Wilson/Morejon(could be push to SP)/Baez/Cristmat/Scott/Castillo

At AAA/AA ..Scholtens/Jacob/Cosgrove/Knerr/others

 

Need at least 1-SP... BP seems loaded

Options pending - Martinez /Suarez could affect both SP/BP

Resigning possibilities Clevinger/Menaea

FA possibilities.. many to consider ..on the extreme high end Degroom.. all the way down to Davies/Eflin types

Quote from fenn68 on August 25, 2022, 8:15 am

Based the the 2nd half of the season … can’t see the Padres not giving Kim the full time SS role … his defense is well above Tatis and his bat is working vs RHP/LHP. Plus I have a bias of not moving the top players around the field and opt for the stability helping the player maximize his defense at one.

I would plop Tatis in LF and just sit him there … stability would (should) help him get back to his old production after what will be a total lost 2022 and while recovering from the surgery. If Profar returns (because he has a history of multiple positons) becomes that super utility guy but “saving” by not bringing him back helps in signing 1B or SP.

Side: I would not rely on Beaty being anything more than a part-time bench player … he will be 30 … only one decent season with the LAD … and the LAD were willing to deal him to the Padres for a Rookie ball player (not a good sign given the LAD record of prospect development).

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 25, 2022, 8:41 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 25, 2022, 8:15 am

Based the the 2nd half of the season … can’t see the Padres not giving Kim the full time SS role … his defense is well above Tatis and his bat is working vs RHP/LHP. Plus I have a bias of not moving the top players around the field and opt for the stability helping the player maximize his defense at one.

I would plop Tatis in LF and just sit him there … stability would (should) help him get back to his old production after what will be a total lost 2022 and while recovering from the surgery. If Profar returns (because he has a history of multiple positons) becomes that super utility guy but “saving” by not bringing him back helps in signing 1B or SP.

Side: I would not rely on Beaty being anything more than a part-time bench player … he will be 30 … only one decent season with the LAD … and the LAD were willing to deal him to the Padres for a Rookie ball player (not a good sign given the LAD record of prospect development).

Not counting on Beaty being more than a bench role player.. my position based lineup above was more of an indication (starting point) where we sit heading into the offseason...

I also think Tatis in the OF/DH is a good way to get his bat BACK at elite level before tinkering with his Defensive position (if that's back at SS or CF ) with LF being a bit easier to play..

Quote from fenn68 on August 25, 2022, 8:44 am

Since I am always worried about limitations of payroll … trying to prioritize moves that balance the needs while not just spending becomes the real challenge.

Padres have the 6th highest CBT payroll right now (behind LAD, NYM, NYY, BOS, PHIL) and even with the FA (assuming the opt ins) it should stay about the same with major impact from full season salaries (via ARB) for Soto and Hader. Not likely the Padres fill all those holes (1B/DH/SP/C) with premium FA costing between $10-20MM each). If they continue to play as they have in recent weeks … less motivation to just throw good money after bad.

Even with little coming up in the system … will have to gamble on some (especially for the reserves and back end of the pen). As they pursue FA … will need to be some serviceable low cost options (Mazara / Alfaro types) to fill the roster.

We are beginning to experience the effect of multiple big contracts putting a squeeze on the rest of the roster construction. Machado - Tatis - Soto - Musgrove - Darvish - Hader plus dead money for Hosmer suck up a lot of money.

So, if the money is there for only one premium FA signing … which position is priority #1 and how do they address the remain holes?

Quote from fenn68 on August 25, 2022, 10:54 am

I guess I am becoming adverse to signing anyone to long term deals …> 3 years (maybe even 3 years) given the Padres (and really most teams) not having those players live up to the expectations over the deal.

Other than Machado … Padres

Shields … Myers … Hosmer … Pomeranz … all have failed. Tatis has moved into the “questionable” category. Musgrove is a TBD. Probably forgetting someone from the past few years but so far only a 20% success rate … and that is not going to make a winner.

Also, since I have a lot of concern about the Padres staying competitive after 2023 given all the FA to be (and the LAD likely to remain strong) plus nothing to backfill via the internal options … might be a pure waste of money to sign anyone to long term deal this winter. Oh yeh, Machado opts out after 2023 would be the nail in the coffin.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 25, 2022, 11:48 am

Something I've been wondering about for awhile is if the best investment the team could make would actually be to invest more off the field. I saw a graph going around social media showing that the Padres have the 6th smallest analytics department in baseball. That's the smallest of all of the current playoff teams and the White Sox are the only team below us with a winning record.

I just read an article on The Athletic about how the Braves analytics team found a difference in Robbie Grossman's left-handed swing from years past to this year. They have now gotten him back on track and he's doing much better in Atlanta than he was in Detroit. The Dodgers seem to thrive at finding guys they can teach to throw that sweeping slider they love and transforming their careers. Quantrill started throwing a cutter in Cleveland to great success. MLBTR put out an article about how Lauer had started throwing his slider a lot more and added velocity to his fastball since he got to Milwaukee. There were talks that the Mets and Twins both thought they could get more out of Paddock by changing his arsenal and sequencing. I'm sure I could keep coming up with more examples. I wonder if expanding our analytics department would help us get the most out of more players.

The other area I wonder if we could improve in is the incorporation of new technology. I remember a lot of the Giants players attributed their success to training off of high velocity pitching machines. I also remember a report about how they had modified a pitching machine to use to take more challenging ground balls off of. The Astros were also reportedly early adopters of high velocity pitching machines. Now there are new pitching machines out that can reportedly be programmed to mimic individual pitchers that some teams have started using. I don't really know where the Padres are at from a technology standpoint. It seems like it could potentially be another area of improvement that could help bring out the best in our guys.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 25, 2022, 12:54 pm

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 25, 2022, 11:48 am

Something I've been wondering about for awhile is if the best investment the team could make would actually be to invest more off the field. I saw a graph going around social media showing that the Padres have the 6th smallest analytics department in baseball. That's the smallest of all of the current playoff teams and the White Sox are the only team below us with a winning record.

I just read an article on The Athletic about how the Braves analytics team found a difference in Robbie Grossman's left-handed swing from years past to this year. They have now gotten him back on track and he's doing much better in Atlanta than he was in Detroit. The Dodgers seem to thrive at finding guys they can teach to throw that sweeping slider they love and transforming their careers. Quantrill started throwing a cutter in Cleveland to great success. MLBTR put out an article about how Lauer had started throwing his slider a lot more and added velocity to his fastball since he got to Milwaukee. There were talks that the Mets and Twins both thought they could get more out of Paddock by changing his arsenal and sequencing. I'm sure I could keep coming up with more examples. I wonder if expanding our analytics department would help us get the most out of more players.

The other area I wonder if we could improve in is the incorporation of new technology. I remember a lot of the Giants players attributed their success to training off of high velocity pitching machines. I also remember a report about how they had modified a pitching machine to use to take more challenging ground balls off of. The Astros were also reportedly early adopters of high velocity pitching machines. Now there are new pitching machines out that can reportedly be programmed to mimic individual pitchers that some teams have started using. I don't really know where the Padres are at from a technology standpoint. It seems like it could potentially be another area of improvement that could help bring out the best in our guys.

Saw that graph too.. 💯 agree.. if we added 10 .. we would move towards the upper half.. be nice to poach a guy or 2 from the more successful clubs