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2023 offseason
#1 · August 10, 2022, 8:33 am
Way too early .. and without taking anything away from our 2022 season..feel free to start talking re-signings/QOs/ FA and trade possibilities as well as who in the minors get ST invites and can be counted on as role players... have at it... (Focus on the Now! Though)
PS- we also don't know where Siedler is taking this payroll so I am going off a hunch he is pushing it to the $245mil range just below Tier 2
#2 · August 10, 2022, 8:56 am
One move I'd make......With Yu turning 36 on Tuesday and a $18 mil salary for 2023.. BUT a $21,350,000 lux tax hit.. I would reneg his contract to 3/52 $17.33 per for 23 24 25.. (26 is when some of our draftees TOR types (Lesko/Snelling / etc) so matches that time line.. Yu would be 36..37..38 yrs old and his FB still has a lot of velo. Will roughly equate to $4mil dollars savings per against the Lux tax...
#3 · August 10, 2022, 9:57 am
I just went back to spotrac.com and went to SD's 2023 payroll. And according to them, here are the totals for 2023.
Under contract - Machado, Tatis, Darvish, Musgrove, Snell, Pomeranz, Profar, Kim, Martinez, Suarez, and Garcia. All others are either FAs or still under the arbitration system. They do not list Hosmer's money for 2023, but I think it comes to about $12.3M for SD. (Fenn??) And for this purpose, lets not count Hosmers money, since maybe Seidler is willing to write the check for his dollars and the penalties, or God willing, Hosmer hates BOS and opts out. Anyway
All contracts for 2023 comes to $143.66M, $16.5M in Estimated Players Benefits, $2.25M in Estimated MiL Contracts, and $1.67M for Pre-Arb Bonus Pool Contribution. All told, that comes to $164M, leaving $69M for FA signings and arb salaries. Out of that $69M you need to still pay Soto, Hader, Crone, Alfaro, Hill, Adams, Grisham, Nola, Beatty, Crismatt, Morejon, Wilson, Batten.
If Profar and Martinez opt out, then it goes to $151M, leaving $82M for FA signings and arb cases.
#4 · August 10, 2022, 10:56 am
Yep, $12.3MM is the legacy AAV for Hosmer.
When I project 2023 I try to work on a base case that create a roster just below the threshold ($233MM) then play with the moves that adjust the roster to remain under then only at that point consider moves that take the team over. 2023 would be 3 consecutive over and besides the larger monetary penalties ... think starting to loose significant draft positions.
Assuming Profar, Martinez, and Suarez DO NOT OPT OUT ... I have contracted AAV at $143.7MM. Add in eight ARB players at an estimated $51MM (big for Soto $25MM / Hader $15MM) ... then seven pre-arb totaling another $5.3MM. Roll in the Benefits et al and Hosmer ... and basically just under the threshold.
IF Profar, Martinez, and Suarez opt out ... opens another $18.9MM ... but down a LF and two RP. Already a need to replace Bell, Drury, Mazara, Clevinger, Manaea. Clearly have to bet on some players at minimum to fill out the roster (eg. Campusano, Rosario, Beaty, Castillo, et al) and most likely trade some salary to add some salary in a more needed position to balance the roster.
Sort of why think a trade decision has to be made on Hader vs Pomeranz, Kim, Alfaro ... open up more payroll space for whatever is deemed of higher value. (note if Martinez / Suarez don't opt out will have to think about trading them).
Has to be some uncomfortable moves coming ... but with only Musgrove, Darvish, Snell returning SP then gamble on Morejon and ??? ... SP may be the first priority for adding to the roster.
#5 · August 10, 2022, 11:09 am
The counter to the idea of extending Darvish to lower his AAV is the issue that may cause when the Padres want to entertain a new contract for Soto who will get a massive AAV. Darvish going to zero opens the path to fit Soto in.
Sort of base 2023 with Darvish at $21MM/Soto at $25MM COULD translate to $46MM AAV for Soto going forward and stay in the safe zone in 2024. Maybe don't need all the $46MM but need any excess (along with $10MM from Snell) to work on SP post Darvish / Snell.
Assumes Padres want (and can) sign Soto. If they do (and think they can) ... they might hold back a bit on long term big money deals to others to ensure the payroll space is there. Pivot once Soto is settled.
#6 · August 10, 2022, 11:31 am
The 3rd time offender penalty is 50% on all overages. Then you have the regular 12% surcharge for going anywhere between 20-40m over. There's no draft penalty until a team gets beyond 40m over. So, in theory Seidler could push as high as 273m before draft positioning factors in. I don't think he will go that high, but somewhere around 250m might be feasible.
#7 · August 10, 2022, 11:58 am
Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 10, 2022, 11:31 amThe 3rd time offender penalty is 50% on all overages. Then you have the regular 12% surcharge for going anywhere between 20-40m over. There's no draft penalty until a team gets beyond 40m over. So, in theory Seidler could push as high as 273m before draft positioning factors in. I don't think he will go that high, but somewhere around 250m might be feasible.
Agree that Siedler will go over but guessing it will be for that final piece that gives him real confidence in making a run for the World Series. Probably not for marginal support. Also, have to be a bit cagey about saving some dry powder for a trade deadline add.
As it stands IF everyone opts in … they are at the first threshold … resigning Bell and Clevinger will cost more than $20MM (probably high 20’s) and push the second tier with still some needs. Gets back to make some tough decisions on deleting some salaries to create a better roster mix with strategic adds. Maybe cheaper (and less talented) alternative to Bell / Clevinger?
#8 · August 10, 2022, 12:13 pm
Quote from fenn68 on August 10, 2022, 10:56 amYep, $12.3MM is the legacy AAV for Hosmer.
When I project 2023 I try to work on a base case that create a roster just below the threshold ($233MM) then play with the moves that adjust the roster to remain under then only at that point consider moves that take the team over. 2023 would be 3 consecutive over and besides the larger monetary penalties ... think starting to loose significant draft positions.
Assuming Profar, Martinez, and Suarez DO NOT OPT OUT ... I have contracted AAV at $143.7MM. Add in eight ARB players at an estimated $51MM (big for Soto $25MM / Hader $15MM) ... then seven pre-arb totaling another $5.3MM. Roll in the Benefits et al and Hosmer ... and basically just under the threshold.
IF Profar, Martinez, and Suarez opt out ... opens another $18.9MM ... but down a LF and two RP. Already a need to replace Bell, Drury, Mazara, Clevinger, Manaea. Clearly have to bet on some players at minimum to fill out the roster (eg. Campusano, Rosario, Beaty, Castillo, et al) and most likely trade some salary to add some salary in a more needed position to balance the roster.
Sort of why think a trade decision has to be made on Hader vs Pomeranz, Kim, Alfaro ... open up more payroll space for whatever is deemed of higher value. (note if Martinez / Suarez don't opt out will have to think about trading them).
Has to be some uncomfortable moves coming ... but with only Musgrove, Darvish, Snell returning SP then gamble on Morejon and ??? ... SP may be the first priority for adding to the roster.
Where did you get the numbers for the projected arb raises?
#9 · August 10, 2022, 12:42 pm
Just my estimate based on the current salaries and what is usually seen as ARB increases for players based on which ARB they are in and performance.
The only two of consequence are:
Soto with a current salary of $17.1MM going to $25MM (I have seen others in that range and in 2024 going to the mid-30s). That is maybe 60% of his market value if a FA which the old rule of thumb for the second to last ARB.
Hader with a current salary of $11MM going to $15MM in his last arbitration … maybe a million high but close for his career.
Usually the arbitrator considers the career not just the last season, so even if Hader not at his peak in 2022 he still gets credit if you will for being under paid vs the free market in his previous years.
So $40MM for those two is going to be close. Of the others, not much … Alfaro and Cronenworth have cases for increases but nothing significant.
I expect Soto and Hader’s agents will be able to convince a neutral arbitrator for the high side calls … both will have a lot of ammo to sell each as the best in baseball … one of the best of all time. Plus Soto’s agent is a guy named Boras … and he wins.
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BoosterSD
#10 · August 10, 2022, 12:46 pm
$15 million for a CLOSER!!!!!!
Uh......no.......