Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 15, 2022, 9:29 pm

Quote from fenn68 on August 15, 2022, 3:29 pm

Looking at the returning players (assuming Profar - Martinez - Suarez opt in) … the Padres are very close the CBT threshold … but have needs. With Soto and Tatis in the line-up not sure focusing on adding bats is a primary need. SP is with only Musgrove, Snell, and Darvish returning.

So, my priorities are:

1a … new contract for Profar to stabilize LF with Soto in RF and Grisham in CF and little in reserve (unless Tatis)

1B … new contract for Clevinger … his rebound from TJ has progressed and when healthy a top of the rotation type arm

2 … clear some payroll by trading Hader (could be $15MM+ in ARB and should be wanted by a few AL contenders) and trade/non-tender Alfaro who should get a nice ARB decision but has really fallen off in the 2nd half. Both have only 1 year control. Gamble on LRHP Promeranz, Morejon, Castillo, Cosgrove. Either Galleger or Campusano take the 2nd catcher role. That would but the Padres under the CBT (probably) again.

3 … sign a reliable veteran innings eater SP (Davis or the like) for #5 until one of the prospects step up (Morejon, Groome, Weathers, Knehr).

Then “hold” into the season to see the weak spots before making the next moves … limited money / trade chips limits flexibility so need to be right and targeted.

I have avoided aiming any money towards a 1B/DH type … thinking the offense may be OK but if not the 1B/DH bat may be the easiest to add mid-season or at the trade deadline. In the short run have to gamble on some combo of Rosario, Beaty, Campusano, Azocar, Batten, Gallagher as the 9th bat in the line-up.

I mean with a 1 to 4 of Profar/Soto/Manny/Tatis.... a 5-9 of Croneworth/Kim/Grisham/Nola and (Kowhley/Campusano/Azocar/Rosario/Sullivan/Hollis/Batten/Beaty etc) the lineup would still be insane... Bench a bit lite and lacking Vets... it would only take bringing back Drury to seal the deal one a top 3 lineup in all of baseball...

SP for 23 and beyond is Key.. our offense should be extremely good with Soto/Manny/Tatis ... Right now only Musgrove/Snell/Yu for 2023.. and only Musgrove for 2024 are signed... so Clev on a 2 +1 or 3 +1 type deal makes a ton of sense.. Groome looked terrific the other day maybe he can answer at least a Menaea type at 5th (or Wethers/Khner can emerge..need one of the 3) Not as worry about 2023 as I am about 2024 tbh.. what do we do with Snell? Extend? How much is he going to demand?... for the $$ Yu and Snell would command (combined) in 2024 could we get Ohtani .. and is Othani/Musgrove/Clev/ Martinez/Groome a > 5 than 2022?

If Snell keeps pitching like this he is going to command $20-$25+ per.. Yu will too (shorter term).. so what will 2024 look like?.. need to finish 2022 1st.. I suppose 😆

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 16, 2022, 8:16 am

Top Korean HS RHP prospect Shim Jun-Seok is not entering the KBO Draft, which would certainly mean that he is aiming to sign with an ML club. Shim is also a Boras Corporation client. 6-4 227 98-100mph teen

 

Looks like an AJP special for 2023 offseason.. Invite the young man to ST 23.. and do some aggressive placement A+/AA see if he can handle it and move him up accordingly

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 16, 2022, 8:30 am

• TAX TIER THRESHOLD TAX RATE

First

 

$230 million

 

20%

 

Second*

 

$250 million

 

32%

 

Third

 

$270 million

 

62.5%

 

Fourth

 

$290 million

 

80%

 

Also for reference..$$ CBT amount goes up every yr

2022: $230 million

2023: $233 million

2024: $237 million

2025: $241 million

2026: $244 million

Quote from fenn68 on August 17, 2022, 10:40 am

No not signing FA Contreras or trading for All-Star Murphy but think the Padres have to work on upgrading catching. Since defense is what Melvin prefers ... a defensive first catcher with at least some offense (not Hedges).

The two incumbents are lacking defensively (and really offensively) so both are vulnerable:

ALFARO (note last control year in 2023 and should be making around $4MM) ... yes, part of Preller Texas connection and had a hot start to 2022 but things have gone south. Post All-Star game, Alfaro is hitting 220/267/317 (584) and at PETCO for the season only a 585 OPS. Add to that his dWAR is -0.1 putting him #27 out of 37 catchers with greater than 200 PA.

NOLA (at 32 aging for a catcher but only in 1st ARB for 2023 ... so low cost and controlled for 3 years). Nola is grading out worse defensively than Alfaro ... -5.0 / 34th out of 37. However, post All-Star game he is hitting better than Alfaro at 250/339/354 (693). For the season at PETCO a .675 OPS is better than Alfaro.

Basically Alfaro had the hot start and faded ... Nola had the cold start and heated up. However, both a lacking defensively.

Internal options (all low cost):

GALLAGHER acquired from KC and in AAA. 30 next season and probably only a #2 catcher at best BUT defense is his calling card. His ML history shows him maybe the the +5.0 dWAR which would place him about #15 defensively. Not much of a hitter with a 77 wRC+ which would put him near the bottom offensively. No minor league options remain after 2022.

CAMPUSANO a major prospect but zip proven offensively at the ML level and TBD on his defense improvement. One minor league option remains in 2023.

SULLIVAN a career minor leaguer really ... not great scouting reports on his defense but has some minor league hitting skills. Has two more years of minor league options. Seems like the emergency AAA call-up option.

---

I guess in one sense not the highest priority (see SP) but I expect Preller to multi-task ... so what does he do? I don't expect that either Alfaro or Nola have any trade value but given Alfaro's potential contract ... he could be a non-tender candidate.

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 17, 2022, 11:09 am

I'd like to see Nola(cheap and traded alot to get him so not going anywhere) and Campusano(it's time to give him real AB's to see what he can do) next season.

I like Alfaro,he's a bit of a Padre Cult hero now,but it's time for Campy to sink or swim.

Unless we keep all three at the ML level with Campy/Alfaro getting some DH time and Nola as emergency IF backup?

Having versatile players like Kim and Cronenworth help this be a possibility.

But,we then run the risk of having "three" under performing bats on the roster......

Quote from fenn68 on August 17, 2022, 11:27 am

Agree that it is time to sink or swim with Campusano ... zero point in a third year in AAA.

I would move on from Alfaro ... his second half bat may be more reflective of his skill level and costly for that level of performance.

If the Padres don't bring back Bell, Drury, Mazara, and Myers (good chance they don't) could see both Nola and Campusano sharing C/DH and have Gallagher as the other catcher for his defensive chops as needed ... at least until they see what that really have in Campusano.

IF they want to be in the playoff hunt in 2023 ... might need some protection against Campusano just being a bust (and that is a risk both offensively and defensively).

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 17, 2022, 6:32 pm

321

.345

.500

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 17, 2022, 6:34 pm

Kim's numbers in August 2022... This kid (just went over the rookie threshold in 2021) would be a ROY favorite had he not had so many PAs last yr... He just keeps getting better and better...

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 17, 2022, 6:43 pm

So back on topic

2023

1B?

2B Cronesworth

3B Manny

SS Kim

LF ?

CF Grisham

RF Soto

C Alfaro/Nola

DH ?

Bench

1) Beatty replaces Mazara *I expect Beatty to be > Mazara 2022

2) Azocar replaces Myers *I expect Azocar to be >Myers 2022 version

3) backup C see above

4) Batten 23>Batten 22

So the bench is basically = 2022 version (can be upgraded as well..but as is just counting who was here and is ready for 23 should be at least = 2022..and a whole lot cheaper)

TATIS ?? Position?.. 3 openings 1B/DH/LF ..to address be it current or other in the offseason...