Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 26, 2022, 10:34 am

So I am looking at JRod and Braves throwing $$ around and I am beginning to sense a trend in baseball of teams that draw well spending big $$... Assume each seat =$100 (net profit to Padres..concessiins/parking/ticket/merchandise) per game.. 37k avg attendance ×$100 3.7 mil per Home game x 81 = $300mil +++.. not counting TV/Sponsors/adds/MLB revenue sharing etc.. easy $500mil for a team like the Padres.. so a $250 CBT takes care of all minors/MLB players and player expenses... say another $200 mil for operating expenses ..salaries and yes Siedler draws paycheck.  Leaving $50mil net profit (at worst).. meanwhile the franchise keeps going up and up in value towards $5Billion...

So yes Siedler can operate in the just below Tier 2 level yr in and yr out ..with the occasional reset.... we are said to be a few 100k over lux at thus moment.. but that's an estimate and most likely we are a few $100k below as some have said for 2022.. so I fully expect Soto extension incoming and Padres to be active in rounding the roster into shape for 2023... I do think at least 3-4 spots would be occupied by rookie BP/SP/Bench types with perhaps only C and 1 Vet bench guy..being if the Vet variety in 2023.. BUT I can see a Padre world in which a Nimmo and a Bell + SP (like Clev or >) are added/resigned in the offseason...we all want a WS .. and I think we all knew 2022 was as good as any year to get it..(it may still be,but it won't be easy).. But with Tatis/Soto/Manny all here in 2023 ..at least on paper 2023 seems to be the yr with the highest odds for us.... With that said I need my Padres to make the post season in 2022 and gain as much post season experience as possible..obviously once in anything can happen ..but it took the Nats like 4 straight postseasons to get it right.. and LAD (unless u count 60 games WS) hasn't done it in a couple decades.. sooo??LETS GET INTO THE DANCE and Make some noise... But know the window is just starting!

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 26, 2022, 10:49 am

The Braves have been smart by locking up their young stars at well below what they will be worth in the coming years.Albies and Acunas' agents should be fired.

The Mariners don't have large deals already in place.

In our case extending Soto (while obviously we all hope it happens) would give us over $100 mil a year in three players.

Doable?....yes.

Wise?...remains to be seen.

If nothing else Tatis's actions this year shows us how dangerous these huge deals can be.

If 1...or God forbid more than 1, get injured, the season is in trouble.

While I would love nothing more than a future of Machado/Tatis/Soto it puts us in dangerous territory.

Extending Soto would most likely have the positive effect of helping to persuade Manny to stay in SD.

 

Edit: I realize Tatis's large yearly salary wont kick in for a couple more years.

But the point remains

 

Quote from fenn68 on August 26, 2022, 10:58 am

Not going to buy into those revenue / expense assumptions as a starting point. Have zero insight into operating expenses … for running the ballpark (when games and when no games) … front office (business side / baseball operations side) … and the debt funding (left on the ball park construction and the debt portion of the purchase … don’t think this was an all cash purchase).

Bottom line is we have no idea on their cash flow (or really any MLB team). Having said that, don’t think Siedler (and his partners) are withdrawing any money from the club … guessing they are managing close to “breakeven” over a multi-year horizon knowing their “profit” will come when they sell the club.

Of all the Padre owners, have faith that Siedler is deploying all the money as needed (should say as he sees it) but not be reckless.

Quote from fenn68 on August 26, 2022, 11:13 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 26, 2022, 10:49 am

The Braves have been smart by locking up their young stars at well below what they will be worth in the coming years.Albies and Acunas' agents should be fired.

The Mariners don't have large deals already in place.

In our case extending Soto (while obviously we all hope it happens) would give us over $100 mil a year in three players.

Doable?....yes.

Wise?...remains to be seen.

If nothing else Tatis's actions this year shows us how dangerous these huge deals can be.

If 1...or God forbid more than 1, get injured, the season is in trouble.

While I would love nothing more than a future of Machado/Tatis/Soto it puts us in dangerous territory.

Extending Soto would most likely have the positive effect of helping to persuade Manny to stay in SD.

 

Edit: I realize Tatis's large yearly salary wont kick in for a couple more years.

But the point remains

 

I have the same issue with four long term / big money deals (Manny, Tatis, Soto, and include Musgrove) … way too top heavy without enough left to fill out a “quality” roster … and yes, if one gets injured (and likely occurrence) in a hole they can’t buy their way out.

Don’t see Soto’s signing having any effect on Machado … he will go for the best deal … that seems to be his DNA and why he signed in SD. For me, he has to opt out and push for a greater than $150MM/5 year deal (from someone) and if he is anywhere near his 2022 performance in 2023 … he will get a bigger / longer deal. Also, a very good chance that some “better teams” will be in the hunt creating a better chance of playoffs / World Series.

Also, not “sold” on signing Soto … at a price tag pushing $500MM for the next decade an a half. He is a great hitter (or is it walker) but pure cost/benefit of one player and the risk of injury (out with a back issue at 23 … see Trout with a very long time remaining on a very big contract going down … and maybe out … with his back issue).

Quote from BoosterSD on August 26, 2022, 11:34 am

I can see one final push for the 2023 season, where I think Sielder will write the checks that Preller deems necessary for a true WS run. Which IMO would suggest a resign of Clevinger, and possibly Bell. CBT level be damned for 2023. Then after 2023 season, if we dont win or come close to winning the WS, I think you see a full reset.

That would be the FA departure of Darvish, and the possible opt out of Machado. That would include the dismissal of Preller and Melvin, and then selling off most high dollar players, except for Musgrove (no trade and now SD legend. And yes, that could include both Tatis and Soto.

Let a new GM come in and set a new direction, restock the system with young players, while having the payroll that previous GM didnt have in SD, prior to Siedler. Probably leaving SD in a rebuild through the 2025 season.

Quote from fenn68 on August 26, 2022, 12:31 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on August 26, 2022, 11:34 am

I can see one final push for the 2023 season, where I think Sielder will write the checks that Preller deems necessary for a true WS run. Which IMO would suggest a resign of Clevinger, and possibly Bell. CBT level be damned for 2023. Then after 2023 season, if we dont win or come close to winning the WS, I think you see a full reset.

That would be the FA departure of Darvish, and the possible opt out of Machado. That would include the dismissal of Preller and Melvin, and then selling off most high dollar players, except for Musgrove (no trade and now SD legend. And yes, that could include both Tatis and Soto.

Let a new GM come in and set a new direction, restock the system with young players, while having the payroll that previous GM didnt have in SD, prior to Siedler. Probably leaving SD in a rebuild through the 2025 season.

Sort of agree … a final push in 2023 (but only if the Padres don’t continue to fall and badly out of the playoffs this year) then move to a rebuild starting in 2024 but if 2023’s final push is successful …maybe try again in 2024 and start rebuild in 2025.

However, with a 2024 pitching staff of Musgrove and a bunch of question marks and no blue chip prospects arriving … can’t see a contender especially if Machado is gone. Frankly if Machado opts out … would move Soto (and recoup at last some prospect capital). Musgrove and Tatis have no trade deals … so that is an issue.

Oddly under those circumstances I would not fire Preller … his one strong skill is scouting and drafting / signing international FA … and that will be the core value needed for the foreseeable future. Not the time to disassemble the scouting. Just put reigns on him in the near term signing any big time FA.

Melvin may just retire given the hand he was dealt (given what he probably expected). No issue with Melvin given his track record as a manager (3X manager of the year). They will not find anyone better … just someone to blame for losses and to fire after 2024.

Given the FA to be and the current farm system … expect 5 years of a rebuild with a lot of 90 loss seasons. There just will not be enough talent.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 26, 2022, 12:41 pm

I dont see Siedler resetting anything (see SF).. he may reduce payroll or + payroll but the goal is to remain relevant yr after yr after yr... sure sone yrs maybe 84-78.. and miss post season.. and sone will be 95-67..  But I don't see this team doing the complete tear down that we grew accustomed to in the previous decades....

I can see moving on from AJP and/or Bo Mel if we don't make the post season in 22 or 23.. But I don't think is WS or bust in either 22 or 23... I do think Soto/Tatis will be together for a decade + in SD.. Tatis has a full NoTrade and is going to come back with fire 🔥 in his veins to redeem himself..The new schedule should help a lot with a more balance schedule for all concerned as well.. I maybe right..I maybe 💯 off base here .. BUT I don't think Siedler likes the tear it all down rebuild approach.. he has done that and now the Fams have put their trust and $$ on the continuation of the Journey to WS Glory.. another 5 yr rebuild will cost ownership Fan support and big revenue losses.. for better or worse we will be very RedSox like

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 26, 2022, 1:25 pm

I want Tirso Ornelas LF to have a tremendous winter and come into ST 23 with a shot at the LF job... he puts ball to bat and has improved his slg every yr in the minors.. The Tijuana, Mexico connection is next level Marketing ++ in all likelihood he goes to EP and comes up at some point in 23

Quote from BoosterSD on August 26, 2022, 1:30 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 26, 2022, 12:41 pm

I dont see Siedler resetting anything (see SF).. he may reduce payroll or + payroll but the goal is to remain relevant yr after yr after yr... sure sone yrs maybe 84-78.. and miss post season.. and sone will be 95-67..  But I don't see this team doing the complete tear down that we grew accustomed to in the previous decades....

I can see moving on from AJP and/or Bo Mel if we don't make the post season in 22 or 23.. But I don't think is WS or bust in either 22 or 23... I do think Soto/Tatis will be together for a decade + in SD.. Tatis has a full NoTrade and is going to come back with fire in his veins to redeem himself..The new schedule should help a lot with a more balance schedule for all concerned as well.. I maybe right..I maybe off base here .. BUT I don't think Siedler likes the tear it all down rebuild approach.. he has done that and now the Fams have put their trust and $$ on the continuation of the Journey to WS Glory.. another 5 yr rebuild will cost ownership Fan support and big revenue losses.. for better or worse we will be very RedSox like

I dont think it will be a total teardown $60M payroll. I think it will be Siedler gave Preller 4 seasons with not a lot of payroll limitations, and while we have star players on the team, apparently it might not be the right mix.

So after 2023 depending on playoff success. I could see a new GM, new Manager, and see the mix of players change. But I dont see Siedler crying poor, and running a PIT level ML salary. Still spending money, just a different mix based on the new GMs preferences.