Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 30, 2022, 3:25 am

Snell July ERA now 2.81.... not sure I just want to move him just to move him... and he is on a super cheap deal lux tax wise for 23..$13 mil..He was hitting 98 last night.  And Nasty.

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2022, 3:34 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 30, 2022, 3:25 am

Snell July ERA now 2.81.... not sure I just want to move him just to move him... and he is on a super cheap deal lux tax wise for 23..$13 mil..He was hitting 98 last night.  And Nasty.

He looked at his best last night against a good hitting team … 6 innings / 93 pitchers only 1 BB and his only run was a HR.

Maybe that reputation of a “second half” pitcher has legs in 2022. With Manaea imploding in recent starts and Gore out of the picture for 2022 … keeping Snell seems the only practical route.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2022, 3:47 am

Have to give some credit to Kim … been getting better as the season moves on with more playing time. His defense is a plus and his bat is improving. He actually grades out (per WAR) as around #10 SS (better in July).

Does his work give Preller some strategic latitude in negotiations at the deadline? Essentially, if the become comfortable with Kim at SS that allows Tatis to return to the OF … maybe CF displacing Grisham. Kim in the line-up may be better offensively than Grisham (sub-.200) and the Kim-Tatis combo may be better defensively for the team than Tatis-Grisham. Grisham’s defense just has faded … another poor play last night. Think of this as a 2022 playoff run plan and can reevaluate in 2023.

Might alter what Preller gives for an OF and/or add focus on a catcher, RP, SP. Only so many trade chips and can’t force other GM to sell at your price.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 30, 2022, 4:06 am

302 .393 .453 last 15 games 53 AB for Hosmer.. 8 BB only 4 SO... 2 Hr 7 RBI...looks like he is heating up... keep? Sell highish 😆?..Bell would be clear upgrade... Bell has 19 GDP.. Hos 12..... bottoming unless we get Bell like upgrade ..we ride with HOS at 1B.. especially when SOTO roams RF..

 

Profar quietly at 3 WAR in LF.. Profar/Tatis/Soto vs lhp with Kim at SS.. when/IF CJ goes to Nats.. maybe give Batten a start or 2 at SS vs RHP.. he seems to be a ++ defender anywhere we put him (a game or 2 in CF would be good to see as well) and I love his approach at the plate...sees a lot of pitches

Yaztremski (SF) looking like a nice fit ..cheapish at CF ..Grish needs a reset (AAA) or a change of scenery

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 30, 2022, 4:10 am

333 .420 .541 Josh Bell 111 ABs last 30 days ..17 BB vs 16 SO..

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2022, 4:12 am

Interesting GM strategy on the Castillo deal from both sides … getting it down now and not waiting to the last minute. Castillo was the #1 SP on the market and reportedly in demand by multiple teams. Yet, CINN chose not to milk the negotiations to squeeze out more, potentially. Suggests that CINN saw the offer, know what others where offering now and concluded others could (would) not match Seattle’s offer.

Seattle apparently was not wanting to wait to see if they were the successful bidder (and maybe miss on other deals) and put a premium offer on the table now rather than reserving some part of the offer for a later upgrade as the deadline approaches.

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Maybe a ripple effect on the market (and Preller) with the #1 SP off the market and a main buyer probably out on the big names … the priority for the remaining buyers and sellers could change. Also, if the contenders NOT in the Soto race choose to follow SEA and push their offers up to get a deal done before Tuesday … could leave the Soto hunters in the cold … that could spell disaster for the Padres.

IF you believe that SD-LAD-TEX-STL are the “finalists” … maybe only SD and STL are really under pressure to make upgrade moves as they are legit competitors for a Wild Card slot. LAD is by far the dominated team and the #1 seed in the NL (no pressure) and TEX is out of it (so also not pressure to get anything done now). Neither have to make the a move and can wait it out. Then add that WASH may not even sell.

Assuming WASH takes this into Tuesday … if either STL or SD win the bidding good chance the loser blows the playoffs. If neither get Soto … maybe a push but makes both more vulnerable to PHIL who is currently tied with STL and will be making their own deadline upgrades.

Has to be a lot of pressure on SD and STL to pull out of the Soto bidding (at max offer) and move on to other options to ensure they have upgrades for the playoff run.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 30, 2022, 4:34 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2022, 4:12 am

Interesting GM strategy on the Castillo deal from both sides … getting it down now and not waiting to the last minute. Castillo was the #1 SP on the market and reportedly in demand by multiple teams. Yet, CINN chose not to milk the negotiations to squeeze out more, potentially. Suggests that CINN saw the offer, know what others where offering now and concluded others could (would) not match Seattle’s offer.

Seattle apparently was not wanting to wait to see if they were the successful bidder (and maybe miss on other deals) and put a premium offer on the table now rather than reserving some part of the offer for a later upgrade as the deadline approaches.

—————-

Maybe a ripple effect on the market (and Preller) with the #1 SP off the market and a main buyer probably out on the big names … the priority for the remaining buyers and sellers could change. Also, if the contenders NOT in the Soto race choose to follow SEA and push their offers up to get a deal done before Tuesday … could leave the Soto hunters in the cold … that could spell disaster for the Padres.

IF you believe that SD-LAD-TEX-STL are the “finalists” … maybe only SD and STL are really under pressure to make upgrade moves as they are legit competitors for a Wild Card slot. LAD is by far the dominated team and the #1 seed in the NL (no pressure) and TEX is out of it (so also not pressure to get anything done now). Neither have to make the a move and can wait it out. Then add that WASH may not even sell.

Assuming WASH takes this into Tuesday … if either STL or SD win the bidding good chance the loser blows the playoffs. If neither get Soto … maybe a push but makes both more vulnerable to PHIL who is currently tied with STL and will be making their own deadline upgrades.

Has to be a lot of pressure on SD and STL to pull out of the Soto bidding (at max offer) and move on to other options to ensure they have upgrades for the playoff run.

Stl needs P more than it needs Soto ..maybe they go after Eovaldi or Montas..same with NYY and LAD now... Padres maybe bidding vs themselves at the end...

Having a backup plan Happ/Contreras perhaps...would be wise

Not sure where Reynolds is at (available? Not available?) But position wise (CF) he represents the single most upgradeable OPS in our lineup.. Profar/Reynolds/Tatis still plays as a Huge upgrade to our OF.. as does Tatis at SS vs RHP ..Profar/Reynolds/(Mazars/Myers)..

I dont feel comfortable with Nola's poor CS % of 13.. I think Sean Murphy add would be terrific ..

Get one deal done Sean Murphy?

Go all in on Soto/Ohtani... plan B Reynolds ..plan C Happ

Have a BP/SP deal or 2 on the burner

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 30, 2022, 4:40 am

Deal I would make today

Sean Murphy C + Laureano CF to SDP

Grisham + Wethers + Zavala + Ornelas + Efrain Contreras + Knerr to A's

Shop Nola to Clev/Mets/StrosTWO of them are going to lose out on Contreras...

Murphy I trust to build rapport with Yu quickly..Contreras never had rapport with him in Chicago (Carantini did)

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 30, 2022, 4:45 am

Snell to Blue Jays for Guriel Jr would be an interesting swap.   As long as we had a SP deal in place for a replacement..

Cam play LF/2B/SS/1B... grades really good at 1B.. brings an .811 career OPS.. Road/Home splits suggests he will hit well anywhere . Power in line with Hos as is OBP.. BUT SLG about 50 pts higher and BA > Hos too..