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#1241 · August 3, 2022, 1:26 pm
Quote from BoosterSD on August 3, 2022, 12:51 pmToying with the idea of the Soto extension in my brain. 15 years, at $34M per year, equals out to $510M. That should do it, dont you think?
So here is the question, if $34M is the number, look at it this way. He made $17.1M this season in arb, and that was double from the 2021 season. So its easy to see his 2023 number to be at least $25M+, and 2024 number to push $33M+. So you would only save $10M or less in dollars to not sign him to the $500M in the offseason.
Between Tatis, Machado, and Musgrove, their CBT number is $76.29M, and add the $34M for Soto, that comes to $110.29M for the 5 years of Musgroves contract.
In the zone … he and Boras probably want to crush that $500MM level for the total contract. Probably also want to crush the AAV but that may be secondary if they are basically getting a baseball life deal.
Agree on his next two ARB levels … and if they are comfortable with those … going the distance might work for the Padres. Sounded as though the Padres would consider extension but maybe right now. IF they could get the extension worked in the winter after next season … would not mess with 2023 AAV and room would happen with the FA of Darvish and Snell.
#1242 · August 3, 2022, 3:48 pm
Quote from fenn68 on August 3, 2022, 1:26 pmQuote from BoosterSD on August 3, 2022, 12:51 pmToying with the idea of the Soto extension in my brain. 15 years, at $34M per year, equals out to $510M. That should do it, dont you think?
So here is the question, if $34M is the number, look at it this way. He made $17.1M this season in arb, and that was double from the 2021 season. So its easy to see his 2023 number to be at least $25M+, and 2024 number to push $33M+. So you would only save $10M or less in dollars to not sign him to the $500M in the offseason.
Between Tatis, Machado, and Musgrove, their CBT number is $76.29M, and add the $34M for Soto, that comes to $110.29M for the 5 years of Musgroves contract.
In the zone … he and Boras probably want to crush that $500MM level for the total contract. Probably also want to crush the AAV but that may be secondary if they are basically getting a baseball life deal.
Agree on his next two ARB levels … and if they are comfortable with those … going the distance might work for the Padres. Sounded as though the Padres would consider extension but maybe right now. IF they could get the extension worked in the winter after next season … would not mess with 2023 AAV and room would happen with the FA of Darvish and Snell.
I am thinking more in the 12/500 ..category
#1243 · August 3, 2022, 4:02 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 3, 2022, 3:48 pmI am thinking more in the 12/500 ..category
That would take him through age 35, and thats an awkward spot. Plus the last offer was 15/440, and 15 takes him to 38. So....
#1244 · August 3, 2022, 4:30 pm
Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 3, 2022, 3:48 pmQuote from fenn68 on August 3, 2022, 1:26 pmQuote from BoosterSD on August 3, 2022, 12:51 pmToying with the idea of the Soto extension in my brain. 15 years, at $34M per year, equals out to $510M. That should do it, dont you think?
So here is the question, if $34M is the number, look at it this way. He made $17.1M this season in arb, and that was double from the 2021 season. So its easy to see his 2023 number to be at least $25M+, and 2024 number to push $33M+. So you would only save $10M or less in dollars to not sign him to the $500M in the offseason.
Between Tatis, Machado, and Musgrove, their CBT number is $76.29M, and add the $34M for Soto, that comes to $110.29M for the 5 years of Musgroves contract.
In the zone … he and Boras probably want to crush that $500MM level for the total contract. Probably also want to crush the AAV but that may be secondary if they are basically getting a baseball life deal.
Agree on his next two ARB levels … and if they are comfortable with those … going the distance might work for the Padres. Sounded as though the Padres would consider extension but maybe right now. IF they could get the extension worked in the winter after next season … would not mess with 2023 AAV and room would happen with the FA of Darvish and Snell.
I am thinking more in the 12/500 ..category
Should be a strategic decision by Boras/Soto. Pretty sure the $500MM is the floor.
However, the years (and AAV) may be played a bit considering at 23 a 12 year deal makes him a FA at 35 and they may not want to be a FA at that point. Both also want to be on a winner in the near term as to the Padres.
Also, one of the hang ups with the initial WASH offer was that it was backloaded ... so that will not fly.
So maybe a compromise to get the $500MM+ is a longer deal resulting in a lower AAV allowing the Padres to spend on players around him. That may appeal to Soto / Boras ... may not.
IF Boras / Soto want this to be a final landing spot ... and at age 23 ... some team may actually longer than 15 years taking the contract well over $500K but then go with the lower AAV. $600MM / 17 years (AAV at $35MM) and he retires at 40.
The one thing about Soto ... is the belief he is a generational hitter in the Willie Mays / Ted Williams mold who remained productive well into their late 30s so locking him in that long might make sense.Plus the time value of money would take those out years and them "cheap" from an economic standpoint. Of course they said that about Pujols and Cabrera and that has not turned out so well.
First is projection on Soto ... is he a GOAT ... they pay for that. The "small" AAV saving should not be an issue if they get that Hall of Fame talent.
Did hear Bowden on radio saying that the Padres (if they are intent on extending Soto) to move during a high point in the season (ie successful run in the playoffs / world series) while emotions are high and positive with Soto.
#1245 · August 3, 2022, 6:22 pm
Quote from fenn68 on August 3, 2022, 4:30 pmQuote from Henry Silvestre on August 3, 2022, 3:48 pmQuote from fenn68 on August 3, 2022, 1:26 pmQuote from BoosterSD on August 3, 2022, 12:51 pmToying with the idea of the Soto extension in my brain. 15 years, at $34M per year, equals out to $510M. That should do it, dont you think?
So here is the question, if $34M is the number, look at it this way. He made $17.1M this season in arb, and that was double from the 2021 season. So its easy to see his 2023 number to be at least $25M+, and 2024 number to push $33M+. So you would only save $10M or less in dollars to not sign him to the $500M in the offseason.
Between Tatis, Machado, and Musgrove, their CBT number is $76.29M, and add the $34M for Soto, that comes to $110.29M for the 5 years of Musgroves contract.
In the zone … he and Boras probably want to crush that $500MM level for the total contract. Probably also want to crush the AAV but that may be secondary if they are basically getting a baseball life deal.
Agree on his next two ARB levels … and if they are comfortable with those … going the distance might work for the Padres. Sounded as though the Padres would consider extension but maybe right now. IF they could get the extension worked in the winter after next season … would not mess with 2023 AAV and room would happen with the FA of Darvish and Snell.
I am thinking more in the 12/500 ..category
Should be a strategic decision by Boras/Soto. Pretty sure the $500MM is the floor.
However, the years (and AAV) may be played a bit considering at 23 a 12 year deal makes him a FA at 35 and they may not want to be a FA at that point. Both also want to be on a winner in the near term as to the Padres.
Also, one of the hang ups with the initial WASH offer was that it was backloaded ... so that will not fly.
So maybe a compromise to get the $500MM+ is a longer deal resulting in a lower AAV allowing the Padres to spend on players around him. That may appeal to Soto / Boras ... may not.
IF Boras / Soto want this to be a final landing spot ... and at age 23 ... some team may actually longer than 15 years taking the contract well over $500K but then go with the lower AAV. $600MM / 17 years (AAV at $35MM) and he retires at 40.
The one thing about Soto ... is the belief he is a generational hitter in the Willie Mays / Ted Williams mold who remained productive well into their late 30s so locking him in that long might make sense.Plus the time value of money would take those out years and them "cheap" from an economic standpoint. Of course they said that about Pujols and Cabrera and that has not turned out so well.
First is projection on Soto ... is he a GOAT ... they pay for that. The "small" AAV saving should not be an issue if they get that Hall of Fame talent.
Did hear Bowden on radio saying that the Padres (if they are intent on extending Soto) to move during a high point in the season (ie successful run in the playoffs / world series) while emotions are high and positive with Soto.
Yeah Soto-s OBP is in a different planet as is his walk rate..i don't see age changing that part of his game unless he all of the sudden at 36 needs glasses... where I can see a decline is in his power #s as he gets beyond 36 or so.. BUT not his XBH.. so yeah if he stays in shape he can easily be productive (like Miggy) later on in his career
#1246 · August 3, 2022, 6:53 pm
If his power doesn’t start to fade for 12 years I’m OK with that.
#1247 · August 8, 2022, 1:01 pm
Heard an interview with former MLer/Padre Greg Garcia and the discussion drifted to Eric Hosmer.
He was focusing on Homser’s “clubhouse presence” being exceptional in dealing with the young players on one hand and being able to get into the face of veterans if needed … all this while remaining a well liked by the players. We have heard this from “outsiders” for some time but hearing it from a former player adds credibility.
Now how is that valued in relationship to on field performance … clearly not that much by Preller since he dealt him and is paying his salary.
#1248 · August 8, 2022, 3:24 pm
In talking to my buddy who played in the league for over a dozen years, he says team chemistry is overblown in baseball. So having a non productive vet who's a good guy is just a non productive guy.
Hosmer didn't cut it. Hopefully he does better for Boston.