Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2022, 5:01 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 30, 2022, 4:34 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2022, 4:12 am

Interesting GM strategy on the Castillo deal from both sides … getting it down now and not waiting to the last minute. Castillo was the #1 SP on the market and reportedly in demand by multiple teams. Yet, CINN chose not to milk the negotiations to squeeze out more, potentially. Suggests that CINN saw the offer, know what others where offering now and concluded others could (would) not match Seattle’s offer.

Seattle apparently was not wanting to wait to see if they were the successful bidder (and maybe miss on other deals) and put a premium offer on the table now rather than reserving some part of the offer for a later upgrade as the deadline approaches.

—————-

Maybe a ripple effect on the market (and Preller) with the #1 SP off the market and a main buyer probably out on the big names … the priority for the remaining buyers and sellers could change. Also, if the contenders NOT in the Soto race choose to follow SEA and push their offers up to get a deal done before Tuesday … could leave the Soto hunters in the cold … that could spell disaster for the Padres.

IF you believe that SD-LAD-TEX-STL are the “finalists” … maybe only SD and STL are really under pressure to make upgrade moves as they are legit competitors for a Wild Card slot. LAD is by far the dominated team and the #1 seed in the NL (no pressure) and TEX is out of it (so also not pressure to get anything done now). Neither have to make the a move and can wait it out. Then add that WASH may not even sell.

Assuming WASH takes this into Tuesday … if either STL or SD win the bidding good chance the loser blows the playoffs. If neither get Soto … maybe a push but makes both more vulnerable to PHIL who is currently tied with STL and will be making their own deadline upgrades.

Has to be a lot of pressure on SD and STL to pull out of the Soto bidding (at max offer) and move on to other options to ensure they have upgrades for the playoff run.

Stl needs P more than it needs Soto ..maybe they go after Eovaldi or Montas..same with NYY and LAD now... Padres maybe bidding vs themselves at the end...

Having a backup plan Happ/Contreras perhaps...would be wise

Not sure where Reynolds is at (available? Not available?) But position wise (CF) he represents the single most upgradeable OPS in our lineup.. Profar/Reynolds/Tatis still plays as a Huge upgrade to our OF.. as does Tatis at SS vs RHP ..Profar/Reynolds/(Mazars/Myers)..

I dont feel comfortable with Nola's poor CS % of 13.. I think Sean Murphy add would be terrific ..

Get one deal done Sean Murphy?

Go all in on Soto/Ohtani... plan B Reynolds ..plan C Happ

Have a BP/SP deal or 2 on the burner

 

The problem with any Plan B or Plan C is that if they wait for the Soto deal to resolve (maybe Tuesday morning) a very good chance the Plan B and Plan C targets have gone in other deals or the seller (if he does not have to sell … see PITT/OAK) will really up the demand for a return from a desperate Padres.

Have to worry … a lot … that going all in on Soto will result in no upgrades except for the 2022 version of Jake Marisnick or Adam Frazier.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2022, 5:14 am

All speculation but hearing that if STL concedes and includes their #1 prospect Jordon Walker (3B/AA) and MLB #6 in the deal that may put them in the winner’s circle.

If LAD follow their usual strategy … they put their best offer on the table and will just sit back and wait. With that in hand … WASH just works SD and STL to max their offers and if they don’t beat the in-hand LAD offer … LAD wins (or they don’t trade). TEX may have the same strategy as LAD.

I would not rule out the result being WASH not trading Soto now and defer to the off season … again not making that call until the last minute and after the other prime trade targets are off the market.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 30, 2022, 5:14 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2022, 5:01 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 30, 2022, 4:34 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2022, 4:12 am

Interesting GM strategy on the Castillo deal from both sides … getting it down now and not waiting to the last minute. Castillo was the #1 SP on the market and reportedly in demand by multiple teams. Yet, CINN chose not to milk the negotiations to squeeze out more, potentially. Suggests that CINN saw the offer, know what others where offering now and concluded others could (would) not match Seattle’s offer.

Seattle apparently was not wanting to wait to see if they were the successful bidder (and maybe miss on other deals) and put a premium offer on the table now rather than reserving some part of the offer for a later upgrade as the deadline approaches.

—————-

Maybe a ripple effect on the market (and Preller) with the #1 SP off the market and a main buyer probably out on the big names … the priority for the remaining buyers and sellers could change. Also, if the contenders NOT in the Soto race choose to follow SEA and push their offers up to get a deal done before Tuesday … could leave the Soto hunters in the cold … that could spell disaster for the Padres.

IF you believe that SD-LAD-TEX-STL are the “finalists” … maybe only SD and STL are really under pressure to make upgrade moves as they are legit competitors for a Wild Card slot. LAD is by far the dominated team and the #1 seed in the NL (no pressure) and TEX is out of it (so also not pressure to get anything done now). Neither have to make the a move and can wait it out. Then add that WASH may not even sell.

Assuming WASH takes this into Tuesday … if either STL or SD win the bidding good chance the loser blows the playoffs. If neither get Soto … maybe a push but makes both more vulnerable to PHIL who is currently tied with STL and will be making their own deadline upgrades.

Has to be a lot of pressure on SD and STL to pull out of the Soto bidding (at max offer) and move on to other options to ensure they have upgrades for the playoff run.

Stl needs P more than it needs Soto ..maybe they go after Eovaldi or Montas..same with NYY and LAD now... Padres maybe bidding vs themselves at the end...

Having a backup plan Happ/Contreras perhaps...would be wise

Not sure where Reynolds is at (available? Not available?) But position wise (CF) he represents the single most upgradeable OPS in our lineup.. Profar/Reynolds/Tatis still plays as a Huge upgrade to our OF.. as does Tatis at SS vs RHP ..Profar/Reynolds/(Mazars/Myers)..

I dont feel comfortable with Nola's poor CS % of 13.. I think Sean Murphy add would be terrific ..

Get one deal done Sean Murphy?

Go all in on Soto/Ohtani... plan B Reynolds ..plan C Happ

Have a BP/SP deal or 2 on the burner

 

The problem with any Plan B or Plan C is that if they wait for the Soto deal to resolve (maybe Tuesday morning) a very good chance the Plan B and Plan C targets have gone in other deals or the seller (if he does not have to sell … see PITT/OAK) will really up the demand for a return from a desperate Padres.

Have to worry … a lot … that going all in on Soto will result in no upgrades except for the 2022 version of Jake Marisnick or Adam Frazier.

 

Yeah it's  nerve racking for sure.. Seattle pivoted already.. I'd up my offer for Soto and Ohtani.. best and final need an answer by tomorrow .type ..or you risk losing my offer convo... obviously play LAA vs Wash.. "If I make a deal for Soto I can't come back in the offseason with anything better than thus bro"... then with Rizzo."Don't know what else you want but I just put an offer in for Ohtani and can only make 1 of the 2 deals so ball is in your court"...

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 30, 2022, 5:45 am

I just don’t see LAA trading Ohtani.

‘With Trout out indefinitely, yes their chances of contending are slim….but Ohtani is now their only draw.

But maybe?

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 30, 2022, 6:02 am

I mean LAA would be stupid not to trade Ohtani.. what they going to get next deadline a comp pick type deal...

We could offer Snell ..<SP than Othani but solid...Voit <Ohtani but in that ballpark HRs up combined they at least maintain a resemblance of Ohtani without the consistency of Ohtani...

Then add to the deal CJ + Hassell + Zavala + Campusano + Rosario and LAA gets a Huge return and a path going foward..add Rendon + Trout back in 23.. and this team has some exciting young pieces

Wait and lose Ohtani to FA ..=disaster

Everyone that would want Othani in the offseason is in on him right now.. so his value goes down with 1 playoff vs 2 playoff chances...also he already said he wants to win and LAA is not winning anything anytime soon..so he will leave LAA ...

Word has it if we had the DH when he signed he would have been a Padre..so our chances of extending him are > than most

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 30, 2022, 6:14 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 30, 2022, 6:02 am

I mean LAA would be stupid not to trade Ohtani.. what they going to get next deadline a comp pick type deal...

We could offer Snell ..<SP than Othani but solid...Voit <Ohtani but in that ballpark HRs up combined they at least maintain a resemblance of Ohtani without the consistency of Ohtani...

Then add to the deal CJ + Hassell + Zavala + Campusano + Rosario and LAA gets a Huge return and a path going foward..add Rendon + Trout back in 23.. and this team has some exciting young pieces

Wait and lose Ohtani to FA ..=disaster

Everyone that would want Othani in the offseason is in on him right now.. so his value goes down with 1 playoff vs 2 playoff chances...also he already said he wants to win and LAA is not winning anything anytime soon..so he will leave LAA ...

Word has it if we had the DH when he signed he would have been a Padre..so our chances of extending him are > than most

 

With that said for the reasons stated above..keeping Snell + Voit and adding SOTO probably gives us a better offense and Team ..vs replacing them with Ohtani and not adding Soto

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2022, 6:22 am

I would not expect Otani to get dealt. I heard that the LAA makes about $10MM/yr from  merchandising and media based on Otani (much from Japan) … money good.

Also don’t agree that the teams in now are the teams in in the off-season … actually have not heard who are in but could see the big money METS / NYY / SF become aggressive with the means to sign him to that mega extension. Oh yeah, the LAD if they don’t resign Turner (and don’t get Soto).

Either way the prospect differential will not be so great as to take any offer on the table now. Otani does sound as though he will move on from LAA .. at some point.

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2022, 6:31 am

I do have this nagging thought that LAA with Trout (best player in MLB for years) … Rendon (mega FA as an elite FA signing) … Otani (super-star) … mega dollars spent on Pujols - Upton … and LAA have not won anything. Do the Padres want to go down that same path with Machado - Tatis - Soto/Otani with big money in underperforming Hosmer and aging Darvish?

As appealing as having super stars is … it does take a team to be the winner.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 30, 2022, 6:31 am

The one thing I know won't happen..is if Ohtani is not dealt now..he surely is not in the offseason.. He would be the "season ticket" face of the franchise for 2023...and then become a deadline deal or not and sign elsewhere.. getting a nice return of youth CJ /Lux (LAD) +++++ NOW ..gives them an opportunity to pivot in the offseason..and Market the new talent .. especially with the uncertainty of Trout's future...CJ Abrams has that "cool look, star quality " that can be very marketable as the team transitions from the past to the present and future... then again ART marches to his own beat and likely keeps Ohtani and does something insane like give Judge 10/400 in the offseason