Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 23, 2022, 2:13 pm

What would a deal look like?

Hosmer + Nola + Hassell III + Wethers and Acosta SS ?

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 23, 2022, 3:11 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 23, 2022, 2:13 pm

What would a deal look like?

Hosmer + Nola + Hassell III + Wethers and Acosta SS ?

Way too much for 2 months of Contreras and 1 1/2 years of Happ.

Take out Hassell.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 23, 2022, 3:30 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 23, 2022, 3:11 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 23, 2022, 2:13 pm

What would a deal look like?

Hosmer + Nola + Hassell III + Wethers and Acosta SS ?

Way too much for 2 months of Contreras and 1 1/2 years of Happ.

Take out Hassell.

It's the inclusion of Hosmer that cost us Hassell basically..

Quote from fenn68 on July 23, 2022, 3:39 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 23, 2022, 2:13 pm

What would a deal look like?

Hosmer + Nola + Hassell III + Wethers and Acosta SS ?

Well … first need to settle on the amount of money that the Padres would have to send to the CUBS … probably in 2023-4-5.

The AAV in 2022 balance out so no issue there and cash remaining on 2022 contracts are about the same … so no need for cash movement this year. That is good.

However, going forward Hosmer will still cost $13MM/year ($39MM) and Nola’s future money should not be an issue since the is at minimum and could be DFA if not useful. Coming to the Padres would be Happ on Arb for 2023 … maybe $9MM. So a difference of $30MM in future years. Split that in half with $15MM to the Cubs (payable if Hosmer does NOT opt out)? Padres schedule that for 2024-5 so it does not put a crimp on 2023 as they try to sign FA.

Then the Padres have to fill in the gap with prospects … Hosmer / Nola not prize catches and would think Happ/Contreras could get some decent prospects from others without taking on the extra payroll. At least one will be top line and followed by a couple very good. Thinking (from a Padres perspective of future need) … Abrams, Campusano (take out Nola from the deal), Rosario, and Knehr. Cubs may think that light and push for Morejon vs Knehr. I would see Hassell in the discussion but likely either Hassell or Abrams but not both. Don’t think Weathers or Acosta would be keys to a deal.

It is sort of an all in 2022 strategy since no guarantee the can re-sign Contreras. Then if they do could have without the trade but still sucking out a lot of FA money for pitching.

I guess in 2022 Contreras may force Voit to 1B and become a DH/C with Alfaro and Nola riding a bench role for C/DH/1B/2B. Happ to bounces around to CF/RF/1B?

Since the short term future in SD for Abrams, Rosario, Campusano, and Knehr … easy to move them … Morejon would be more difficult with the FA SP. Hassell would be a longer term issue as Happ is gone in 2024 (good timing for Hassell arrival) and other than Ruiz … maybe no other OF in play except Grisham.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 23, 2022, 3:51 pm

 

5:16PM: The Nationals want “four to five top young players” for Soto, Ken Rosenthal said during a FOX Sports interview today. This “monstrous ask” consists of star prospects and/or players who have only recently made their MLB debuts, and thus are under control for several years. Given the size of this expected trade package, “at this point….it’s not really a negotiation. The Nationals are saying ‘either you express a willingness to meet our price, or we just go to the next club,’ ” Rosenthal said

 

 

This article is poorly written makes it sound like if you meet the asking price Soto is yours..if you don't move on.. I am pretty sure if you meet the asking price they (Nats) are still going to see what others offer... 😆

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 23, 2022, 4:03 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 23, 2022, 3:30 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 23, 2022, 3:11 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 23, 2022, 2:13 pm

What would a deal look like?

Hosmer + Nola + Hassell III + Wethers and Acosta SS ?

Way too much for 2 months of Contreras and 1 1/2 years of Happ.

Take out Hassell.

It's the inclusion of Hosmer that cost us Hassell basically..

Oh I get it.

I still think it’s too much.

Most teams will be fine with Hosmer for 3 years at the right cost.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 23, 2022, 4:46 pm

I would put Hosmer at about a $8MM/year player (1 WAR type … but that is not great for a 1B). So to get him bought down to market … need to add $5MM/year for his remaining 3 years ($15MM) instead of using prospects lowering the prospect package in a Contreras - Happ deal. Hosmer may do well in Wrigley.

Cubs get Hosmer at “fair market value” for 3 years (total 3 WAR) … should return 3 WAR value at “fair market value” to balance the trade. That could be Happ with 2023 ARB and a 3 WAR projection.

Oddly could construct logic that Hosmer plus $15MM is an even up deal for Happ … at least from a WAR perspective but Happ does have some additional value from a position versatility and because he fills a need in 2022-23 more than Hosmer. Padres also benefit from not getting hindered by the non-trade kicking in. So maybe have to kick in a bit more for Happ to pay for the short term benefit.

That leaves what is 2 months of Contreras worth to a playoff team. Then roll in what Contreras / Happ can get going to others … demand ups the theoretical values. Have to also consider how much the Cubs really want Hosmer and are they taking him just to facilitate the numbers for Padres’ CBT?

I guess from a pure theoretical view … the prospect return would not include a Top 100 type prospect (if the $15MM was included) … but the Cubs will play the playoff desperation card for the Padres … and what is the value of winning and push in a top prospect into the deal. Abrams is that guy and on the ML cusp … plus blocked in SD.

Quote from fenn68 on July 23, 2022, 4:59 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 23, 2022, 3:51 pm

 

5:16PM: The Nationals want “four to five top young players” for Soto, Ken Rosenthal said during a FOX Sports interview today. This “monstrous ask” consists of star prospects and/or players who have only recently made their MLB debuts, and thus are under control for several years. Given the size of this expected trade package, “at this point….it’s not really a negotiation. The Nationals are saying ‘either you express a willingness to meet our price, or we just go to the next club,’ ” Rosenthal said

 

 

This article is poorly written makes it sound like if you meet the asking price Soto is yours..if you don't move on.. I am pretty sure if you meet the asking price they (Nats) are still going to see what others offer...

Not if their bottom line is so high they “know” if any team making that offer will be the best offer. Pretty sure very few teams can (or will) make what I suspect is their demand of 4-5 big time pieces in return and they know that. Negotiate and may loose that first offer.

If the Padres offered Gore - Morejon - Abrams - Hassell - Wood … WASH would be signing on the dotted line ASAP. Who could (or would) beat that … that is probably too much even for Soto’s 2.3 years.

I just don’t see any team making their price … certainly not before the trade deadline.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 24, 2022, 3:33 am

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