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Trades June/July/Deadline
#631 · July 24, 2022, 6:56 am
Next 8 days will do a lot to determine buyers and sellers … and importantly how motivated the buyers will be. The number of buyers and motivation to buy (at a price) will (may) increase or lower the selling price of players in play.
As it stands … almost locks for the playoffs and therefore less motivated to overpay for an add: LAD; NYM; ATL; NYY; HOU. Still would want to improve the team … just not push the price to add up too high.
However making the playoffs is a motivator and looking as 10 teams are are vying for 7 slots. (Not including BOST or BALT who seem to be on the fade and 3 games out of a slot).
SD and TB are in good position with 42 losses and the first out with 45 losses and TB in the first WC slot in the AL and SD in the second WC slot in the NL. SD will be motivated but TB is not a big spender and loves internal prospects so if they play … not at the top end.
So the most “at risk” that should be most motivated are: MILW; STL; PHIL; SF; TOR; SEA; MINN; CLEV. Three of those will be out.
Have to gauge of those seven … what are their priorities in adds and what they have to deal (and are willing to deal) out of their systems plus what limits they have on adding payroll (probably an issue for CLEV at least).
All part of Preller’s strategy of making bids. Also, for those teams and for Preller a reason to wait to the last moment considering if one or two of those teams fall further out of contention the buyers may drop lowering the price for trade targets.
Looking at those teams … not sure who has a major hitter as the #1 priority … maybe would like to add one but with limited trade chips target pitching first. So, it is possible with Happ, Benintendi, Bell on the “rental” market … and maybe SD somewhat neutral on which to add (subject to price) they may not have a lot of completion … and get a lower price. Contreras as a C “rental” (and not currently a hot hitter) actually might have a much more muted market … lowering the cost to acquire.
Sort of making the case … if Preller doesn’t shoot until he sees the whites of the eyes … that getting that additional “rental” bat may be a lot less costly in propsects than we generally debate … supply and demand and no value for the seller to hold.
On the other hand … limited quality pitching and a big demand should push the cost up.
Preller may be able to get more bang for his bucks by focusing on hitters and being flexible as to the hitter he adds.
#632 · July 24, 2022, 7:04 am
Quote from fenn68 on July 23, 2022, 4:59 pmQuote from Henry Silvestre on July 23, 2022, 3:51 pm
5:16PM: The Nationals want “four to five top young players” for Soto, Ken Rosenthal said during a FOX Sports interview today. This “monstrous ask” consists of star prospects and/or players who have only recently made their MLB debuts, and thus are under control for several years. Given the size of this expected trade package, “at this point….it’s not really a negotiation. The Nationals are saying ‘either you express a willingness to meet our price, or we just go to the next club,’ ” Rosenthal said
This article is poorly written makes it sound like if you meet the asking price Soto is yours..if you don't move on.. I am pretty sure if you meet the asking price they (Nats) are still going to see what others offer...
Not if their bottom line is so high they “know” if any team making that offer will be the best offer. Pretty sure very few teams can (or will) make what I suspect is their demand of 4-5 big time pieces in return and they know that. Negotiate and may loose that first offer.
If the Padres offered Gore - Morejon - Abrams - Hassell - Wood … WASH would be signing on the dotted line ASAP. Who could (or would) beat that … that is probably too much even for Soto’s 2.3 years.
I just don’t see any team making their price … certainly not before the trade deadline.
Take out Wood……please.
Add Merrill or Gasser or “anyone” else.
#633 · July 24, 2022, 7:19 am
A good match right now for SDP is Reds for Castillo
Tyler Stephenson went down (broken Clavicle)... they got nothing at C... Campusano + Wethers for Luis Castillo makes a ton of sense for both Clubs right now
Campy can DH/C when Tyler comes back ..Wethers (bloodlines) replaces Castillo 1 of 5 at SP for rest of season and beyond... 6 yrs of control x 2 mlb ready players is a nice get for Reds for 1 yr 2 month rental .. Castillo ...allows us to (trade Snell/trade Gore in a Soto type move..or Trade both) he is also relatively cheap for 2023... and is the perfect "available' all in Chip that complements a Bat add + Tatis... Campusano would absolutely rake in that ballpark... Win/Win trade for Both clubs..with immediate results for both
#634 · July 24, 2022, 7:27 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on July 24, 2022, 7:04 amQuote from fenn68 on July 23, 2022, 4:59 pmQuote from Henry Silvestre on July 23, 2022, 3:51 pm
5:16PM: The Nationals want “four to five top young players” for Soto, Ken Rosenthal said during a FOX Sports interview today. This “monstrous ask” consists of star prospects and/or players who have only recently made their MLB debuts, and thus are under control for several years. Given the size of this expected trade package, “at this point….it’s not really a negotiation. The Nationals are saying ‘either you express a willingness to meet our price, or we just go to the next club,’ ” Rosenthal said
This article is poorly written makes it sound like if you meet the asking price Soto is yours..if you don't move on.. I am pretty sure if you meet the asking price they (Nats) are still going to see what others offer...
Not if their bottom line is so high they “know” if any team making that offer will be the best offer. Pretty sure very few teams can (or will) make what I suspect is their demand of 4-5 big time pieces in return and they know that. Negotiate and may loose that first offer.
If the Padres offered Gore - Morejon - Abrams - Hassell - Wood … WASH would be signing on the dotted line ASAP. Who could (or would) beat that … that is probably too much even for Soto’s 2.3 years.
I just don’t see any team making their price … certainly not before the trade deadline.
Take out Wood……please.
Add Merrill or Gasser or “anyone” else.
Woods may never be anything...BUT i want to see this kid through .. He is my absolutely "deal breaker"...I nickname him 'The Freak" ... and I want him to reach his ceiling (which maybe the highest of any prospect in baseball) as a Padre....
I am right there with you... also Merrill is my 2nd guy for opposite reasons I think his floor is Jake Croneworth 2.0.... But if one has to go Merrill is my choice... would prefer someone else altogether Acosta (high ceiling) /Zavala etc...be the trade chip/s..even Susana (after this draft)..
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MrPadre19
#635 · July 24, 2022, 8:01 am
Not sure I want to help the Phillies ..bit they had the #1 ranked SP until a couple of their SP went down...
Snell + Voit + Myers to Phillies
Kyle Schwarber to SD
We get an absolute thumper (30 HRs already)... and unlike Luke can play a little OF ..has better foot speed as well
The trade gives Phillies a bit more flex in their lineup and improves their SP... we also shed (Prorated $38mil and it's lux tax calculations and exchange it for $19.725 for 22...with an option ($3mil to buy out Kyle OR take on 3/60 left in the offseason)
More of a $$ move to gain leverage in potential deals .. and upgrade the power department a lot...
#636 · July 24, 2022, 8:58 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 24, 2022, 7:19 amA good match right now for SDP is Reds for Castillo
Tyler Stephenson went down (broken Clavicle)... they got nothing at C... Campusano + Wethers for Luis Castillo makes a ton of sense for both Clubs right now
Campy can DH/C when Tyler comes back ..Wethers (bloodlines) replaces Castillo 1 of 5 at SP for rest of season and beyond... 6 yrs of control x 2 mlb ready players is a nice get for Reds for 1 yr 2 month rental .. Castillo ...allows us to (trade Snell/trade Gore in a Soto type move..or Trade both) he is also relatively cheap for 2023... and is the perfect "available' all in Chip that complements a Bat add + Tatis... Campusano would absolutely rake in that ballpark... Win/Win trade for Both clubs..with immediate results for both
Not from CINN perspective. They can happily go with two poor catchers for the rest of this year given how their season has gone … maybe even getting a better draft pick … and wait for Stephenson to return next season.
Castillo is maybe the best SP on the market … they should get a much better return from one of the many teams wanting a SP with control for one more year. The appeal of a fading catching prospect (Campusano) and a pitcher who was terrible in the ML the second half of 2021 and for EP this year is not that compelling.
#637 · July 24, 2022, 9:46 am
Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 24, 2022, 8:01 amNot sure I want to help the Phillies ..bit they had the #1 ranked SP until a couple of their SP went down...
Snell + Voit + Myers to Phillies
Kyle Schwarber to SD
We get an absolute thumper (30 HRs already)... and unlike Luke can play a little OF ..has better foot speed as well
The trade gives Phillies a bit more flex in their lineup and improves their SP... we also shed (Prorated $38mil and it's lux tax calculations and exchange it for $19.725 for 22...with an option ($3mil to buy out Kyle OR take on 3/60 left in the offseason)
More of a $$ move to gain leverage in potential deals .. and upgrade the power department a lot...
With Harper out I don’t see the Phils trading their top LH power guy.
I think they will fade but it will be well after the deadline.(tough inter division games)
I think they hold or even buy….but if they buy it will end up a mistake.
The Cards are Brewers are the opposite…..both will make the playoffs (easy Division games ) and I could see the Cards adding a pitcher (Castillo) and the Brewers a bat.
#638 · July 24, 2022, 9:50 am
Are we sure Campusanos’ value is tanking?
He’s still hitting (yes it’s the PCL) and with the DH now in the NL I can’t imagine a team needing a C and/or offense shying away from him.
His Slug% is down but everything else is pretty much in line with last season.
#639 · July 24, 2022, 10:02 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on July 24, 2022, 9:50 amAre we sure Campusanos’ value is tanking?
He’s still hitting (yes it’s the PCL) and with the DH now in the NL I can’t imagine a team needing a C and/or offense shying away from him.
His Slug% is down but everything else is pretty much in line with last season.
He hit a .491 ft HR a nught or 2 ago...and all though he dropped in top 100..he still in the top 55-60 range.. I think Fenn and I just see how he is not C as much as he should be and figure his value is down..But for all I know he might be playing through some leg injury or something and just been given more time off from C...speculation on our part...??
#640 · July 24, 2022, 10:13 am
Just looked at his fielding.. he does have 44 starts at C + 12 at DH for 2022 at EP.... he has a 36+% CS which is very good and his Defensive metrics look fine to me..