Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 10:23 am

Padres luxury tax will be charged with any money sent to another team to pay Myers' salary. So that move is zero value to the CBT space. Want to move Myers (and his contract) ... need to attach a $9MM prospect value with him in the deal ... no idea how teams make that call (but they do and likely each differently based on their scouting and analytics of value).

Since $9MM is more than the tag for the top of the draft prospects ... or $9MM +/-  is the attributed value to a 1 WAR ML player (average replacement value) ... the attached prospect would have to have very very good projection.

Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 10:33 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 19, 2022, 10:18 am

From a prospect perspective in a potential Soto deal

 

IF is in the deal .............then stay/s

Gore.              Wethers/Susana

Hassell.            Wood

CJ Abrams.       Rosario/Merrill

 

The rest ..Campusano/Acosta/others that go on the deal no problem.. but if these 3 are in then those 5 shouldn't or vice versa...from a trajectory/MLB readiness that would keep us in line with projected MLB arrivals..to balance payroll as we take on Soto/Tatis/Machado/Musgrove $$$

That is probably pretty close to the base case for both sides in a Soto only deal. If I were WASH I would go Gore / Abrams ... both ML ready and 6 years' control ... then Wood for the big upside (over Hassell). The next level would be really up in the air but could see additional names such as Gasser and Morejon discussed besides those you list.

Quote from BoosterSD on July 19, 2022, 10:41 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 10:33 am

 

That is probably pretty close to the base case for both sides in a Soto only deal. If I were WASH I would go Gore / Abrams ... both ML ready and 6 years' control ... then Wood for the big upside (over Hassell). The next level would be really up in the air but could see additional names such as Gasser and Morejon discussed besides those you list.

Just 30 minutes ago, you stated how bad they would be for years to come, so why would they want ML ready players that are going to burn their clocks prior to WAS being ready for another run.

If that is true, WAS should not want Gore or Abrams since they would not be under control long enough for their next run. Might as well substitute Merril for Abrams, another player for Gore, and then maybe include another piece or two.

Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 11:01 am

Quote from BoosterSD on July 19, 2022, 10:41 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 10:33 am

 

That is probably pretty close to the base case for both sides in a Soto only deal. If I were WASH I would go Gore / Abrams ... both ML ready and 6 years' control ... then Wood for the big upside (over Hassell). The next level would be really up in the air but could see additional names such as Gasser and Morejon discussed besides those you list.

Just 30 minutes ago, you stated how bad they would be for years to come, so why would they want ML ready players that are going to burn their clocks prior to WAS being ready for another run.

If that is true, WAS should not want Gore or Abrams since they would not be under control long enough for their next run. Might as well substitute Merril for Abrams, another player for Gore, and then maybe include another piece or two.

6 years is a long run so both potentially would be at their peaks when WASH is winning. Maybe more importantly they are elite prospects who have developed already ... low level prospects have a much lower chance of achieving their ceiling (or even the ML). WASH will shoot for a spread of high ceiling near term and high ceiling some years out.

Plus IF Gore and Abrams are as good as the Padres' project ... in 3-4 years WASH could trade them for another wave of top prospects if WASH as a team still are not hitting a window for winning.

Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 11:06 am

As a companion to my last comment, Soto is a mega-talent that few think that he will fade in his skills over the next 2.3 years .... so, IF the Padres window is really 2022-23 then maybe fall out a bit as the SP disappears, the Padres (If they can't see re-signing him long term) trade him at some point and recoup one or two prospects that could offset part of the loss of prospects to get him.

A lot of layers in making this and future decisions

Quote from BoosterSD on July 19, 2022, 11:17 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 11:06 am

As a companion to my last comment, Soto is a mega-talent that few think that he will fade in his skills over the next 2.3 years .... so, IF the Padres window is really 2022-23 then maybe fall out a bit as the SP disappears, the Padres (If they can't see re-signing him long term) trade him at some point and recoup one or two prospects that could offset part of the loss of prospects to get him.

A lot of layers in making this and future decisions

True, there are some many layers that would go into making this happen.

I think Gore is the one that would hurt most, just to the need in ML for pitching.

I can see Abrams as an extra piece for SD. Not due to a lack of talent, just we have so many SS on our roster at this time, and I dont think Tatis is moving to the grass.....so Abrams is moveable to me.

Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 11:25 am

Would think Abrams is as good as gone in any deal. Machado - Tatis - Cronenworth has the INF set with Kim in reserve for the next few years. If an additional INF is needed next year Rosario / Batten could be serviceable as the extra INF (not getting much playing time but league minimum).

Gore would hurt ... but have to deal quality to get mega quality that is proven. Add that Gore is still unproven over the course of a season ... we hope and project but still an open question.

Quote from TucsonClip on July 19, 2022, 12:27 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 19, 2022, 10:01 am

Quote from TucsonClip on July 19, 2022, 9:43 am

If you are Washington, Corbin is likely a requirement, especially if you want them taking back Hosmer. The question is how much prospect capital are they willing to not receive by inserting Corbin into the deal?

I would love to have Soto, I just dont understand how we realistically fill out the remainder of our lineup/staff the next two seasons, and improve our odds from where they currently are?

I dont think Corbin is that big of a deal HOS lux tax $$ are $18 mil per.. Corbin is at $24 in 23 and $25 in 24...no different than keeping Hos and adding a SP for $6mil in 23 and $7mil in 24... - the hole at 1B..

But in-house Kim to 2B and Crone at 1B for 2023 covers that too..

The balance of $$ for 2022 (Hos roughly $8mil /Corbin $10/Soto $7mil) is -$9mil.. or roughly the amount owed Myers.. if Padres are willing to take Soto on.. Siedler can simply send Myers anywhere with $9mil attached to him for a team to take the Lux Tax dollars off our hands in exchange for the $9mil in cash (so no cost money wise to team taking on Myers lux tax $$) maybe a #30 to #40 org spec for the favor...

SDP sends Myers + $9 mil cash and CF Matt Acosta (A+ Ft Wayne) to Orioles... net cost to Padres $$ $9 mil..(saves them $2.7 mil in luxury tax/ and more importantly resets lux tax for 2023)

Orioles send Lux tax relief ... net $$ cost to Orioles $0

Myers could also just DH in Baltimore if the O's indeed trade Mancini but remain in the WC hunt..with their ramp up going well no need for Orioles to buy at the deadline this year ..nor sell much more than a Mancini or Santander type ..keeping the team on course for 23 and beyond.. Myers just DHing should keep them interesting for 22

My point being, I dont see any reason for the Nats to deal Corbin AND take back Hosmer in the same deal with the Padres. Its going to be one sided, and the Nats likely saying NOPE.

Quote from sportwarrior on July 19, 2022, 12:29 pm

Quote from lafnboy13 on July 19, 2022, 10:13 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 9:36 am

Quote from BoosterSD on July 19, 2022, 9:16 am

Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 9:03 am

Side on Corbin ... he is 33 and his past three season had an ERA well over 5.00 ... basically an expensive version of Snell. If you don't like Hosmer, you will not like Corbin and both at their ages are not likely to return to their peaks. At least Hosmer lower cost.

Sounds like that idea was floated by an East Coast WASH centric person who has had it with Corbin and is working to create some kind of logic to get him out .... sort of their version of us trying to get Hosmer out.

Yes, with Corbin you are taking a BIG gamble on some sort of bounce back. However, the one thing that he has going over Snell is he posts up every 5 days and eats innings, something Snell cant seem to do.

So take a look at 2022 stats. Corbin ERA of 5.87 in 99 IP, or Snells 5.22 ERA in 50 IP? Seems like the benefits of Corbin is saving the BP innings and with a change of scenery and Niebla as pitching coach, something good could happen; and OH, have Soto in the line up in between Tatis and Machado.

That could be good!?!?!

Would be better to have neither Snell or Corbin? Not a solely either or scenario. The Corbin AAV of $29MM is $19MM more than Snell's ... so would limit signings to fill out the rest of the roster.

Avoid Corbin ... trade Snell ... go with Morejon and good chance a better outcome and a much lower cost and with a future. Learn to love Hosmer.

I understand the Hosmer hate but that hate expires at the end of this season. With his salary going down to 13/yr he is a serviceable bat in the 7-8 range for next year. We can't have an all star at every position and we could do worse than him.

Solid point on the $13m, but when we're dancing around the CBT threshold it's not the only number that matters. In fact, Hosmer's $18m CBT AAV probably matters a bit more.

For what it's worth, either way I'd contend that Hosmer isn't worth more than replacement level compensation at best, even considering what he means to the clubhouse.