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Trades June/July/Deadline
#461 · July 19, 2022, 9:03 am
Not absolutely sure on the re-calculation of the CBT AAV but "logically" the buying team should be saddle with only what is their commitment. Sort of like Rogers with SD ... his contract is $7.3MM but MINN is paying $6.6MM of that so to the Padres AAV only the net $0.7MM is counted ... just the Padre commitment.
So, for Hosmer his AAV should drop from $18MM to something just over $13MM to WASH ... but as said WASH does not care about AAV and just the cash outlay which would be a "modest" $46MM+/- over 3 years.
However, using the same logic for Corbin, his AAV should jump from $23.3MM for WASH to $29.5MM for SD based on a SD cash outlay of $67.8MM+/- over 2.3 years. (ignored any implication on deferred money in Corbin's contract and who may be paying that).
If that is the logic / numbers ... that part of the deal would cost SD both in total cash ($21.8MM) and AAV in both 2022 and 2023 ($11.5MM) but get a break in 2024. Given the Padres issue with CBT in 2022 and 2023 (needing a lot of new signings) .... that does not seem workable even if the cash is.
Wearing the WASH hat ... their going forward problem is the lack of talent / prospects ... not cash so not sure that even makes sense for them ... would prefer logically a much more robust prospect package for the rebuild at the cost of $21.8MM.
Side on Corbin ... he is 33 and his past three season had an ERA well over 5.00 ... basically an expensive version of Snell. If you don't like Hosmer, you will not like Corbin and both at their ages are not likely to return to their peaks. At least Hosmer lower cost.
Sounds like that idea was floated by an East Coast WASH centric person who has had it with Corbin and is working to create some kind of logic to get him out .... sort of their version of us trying to get Hosmer out.
#462 · July 19, 2022, 9:16 am
Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 9:03 amSide on Corbin ... he is 33 and his past three season had an ERA well over 5.00 ... basically an expensive version of Snell. If you don't like Hosmer, you will not like Corbin and both at their ages are not likely to return to their peaks. At least Hosmer lower cost.
Sounds like that idea was floated by an East Coast WASH centric person who has had it with Corbin and is working to create some kind of logic to get him out .... sort of their version of us trying to get Hosmer out.
Yes, with Corbin you are taking a BIG gamble on some sort of bounce back. However, the one thing that he has going over Snell is he posts up every 5 days and eats innings, something Snell cant seem to do.
So take a look at 2022 stats. Corbin ERA of 5.87 in 99 IP, or Snells 5.22 ERA in 50 IP? Seems like the benefits of Corbin is saving the BP innings and with a change of scenery and Niebla as pitching coach, something good could happen; and OH, have Soto in the line up in between Tatis and Machado.
That could be good!?!?!
#463 · July 19, 2022, 9:36 am
Quote from BoosterSD on July 19, 2022, 9:16 amQuote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 9:03 amSide on Corbin ... he is 33 and his past three season had an ERA well over 5.00 ... basically an expensive version of Snell. If you don't like Hosmer, you will not like Corbin and both at their ages are not likely to return to their peaks. At least Hosmer lower cost.
Sounds like that idea was floated by an East Coast WASH centric person who has had it with Corbin and is working to create some kind of logic to get him out .... sort of their version of us trying to get Hosmer out.
Yes, with Corbin you are taking a BIG gamble on some sort of bounce back. However, the one thing that he has going over Snell is he posts up every 5 days and eats innings, something Snell cant seem to do.
So take a look at 2022 stats. Corbin ERA of 5.87 in 99 IP, or Snells 5.22 ERA in 50 IP? Seems like the benefits of Corbin is saving the BP innings and with a change of scenery and Niebla as pitching coach, something good could happen; and OH, have Soto in the line up in between Tatis and Machado.
That could be good!?!?!
Would be better to have neither Snell or Corbin? Not a solely either or scenario. The Corbin AAV of $29MM is $19MM more than Snell's ... so would limit signings to fill out the rest of the roster.
Avoid Corbin ... trade Snell ... go with Morejon and good chance a better outcome and a much lower cost and with a future. Learn to love Hosmer.
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lafnboy13
#464 · July 19, 2022, 9:43 am
If you are Washington, Corbin is likely a requirement, especially if you want them taking back Hosmer. The question is how much prospect capital are they willing to not receive by inserting Corbin into the deal?
I would love to have Soto, I just dont understand how we realistically fill out the remainder of our lineup/staff the next two seasons, and improve our odds from where they currently are?
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lafnboy13
#465 · July 19, 2022, 9:47 am
Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 9:36 amQuote from BoosterSD on July 19, 2022, 9:16 amQuote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 9:03 amSide on Corbin ... he is 33 and his past three season had an ERA well over 5.00 ... basically an expensive version of Snell. If you don't like Hosmer, you will not like Corbin and both at their ages are not likely to return to their peaks. At least Hosmer lower cost.
Sounds like that idea was floated by an East Coast WASH centric person who has had it with Corbin and is working to create some kind of logic to get him out .... sort of their version of us trying to get Hosmer out.
Yes, with Corbin you are taking a BIG gamble on some sort of bounce back. However, the one thing that he has going over Snell is he posts up every 5 days and eats innings, something Snell cant seem to do.
So take a look at 2022 stats. Corbin ERA of 5.87 in 99 IP, or Snells 5.22 ERA in 50 IP? Seems like the benefits of Corbin is saving the BP innings and with a change of scenery and Niebla as pitching coach, something good could happen; and OH, have Soto in the line up in between Tatis and Machado.
That could be good!?!?!
Would be better to have neither Snell or Corbin? Not a solely either or scenario. The Corbin AAV of $29MM is $19MM more than Snell's ... so would limit signings to fill out the rest of the roster.
Avoid Corbin ... trade Snell ... go with Morejon and good chance a better outcome and a much lower cost and with a future. Learn to love Hosmer.
We are coming up with all kinds of stuff..I can only imagine AJP sitting with Siedler eating breakfast (early lunch now) and going over everything and anything from $$$ to every option/player in our team and in our minors...with perhaps only Machado Musgrove and Tatis not part of the convo...
Make that Machado only one not in the convo..pretty sure they are talking Joe extension and Tatis rehab as well...
#466 · July 19, 2022, 9:50 am
Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 9:36 amAvoid Corbin ... trade Snell ... go with Morejon and good chance a better outcome and a much lower cost and with a future. Learn to love Hosmer.
You learn to love Hosmer. Hahaha!! 🙂
The best I will ever do is tolerate the overpaid team cheerleader.
#467 · July 19, 2022, 10:01 am
Quote from TucsonClip on July 19, 2022, 9:43 amIf you are Washington, Corbin is likely a requirement, especially if you want them taking back Hosmer. The question is how much prospect capital are they willing to not receive by inserting Corbin into the deal?
I would love to have Soto, I just dont understand how we realistically fill out the remainder of our lineup/staff the next two seasons, and improve our odds from where they currently are?
I dont think Corbin is that big of a deal HOS lux tax $$ are $18 mil per.. Corbin is at $24 in 23 and $25 in 24...no different than keeping Hos and adding a SP for $6mil in 23 and $7mil in 24... - the hole at 1B..
But in-house Kim to 2B and Crone at 1B for 2023 covers that too..
The balance of $$ for 2022 (Hos roughly $8mil /Corbin $10/Soto $7mil) is -$9mil.. or roughly the amount owed Myers.. if Padres are willing to take Soto on.. Siedler can simply send Myers anywhere with $9mil attached to him for a team to take the Lux Tax dollars off our hands in exchange for the $9mil in cash (so no cost money wise to team taking on Myers lux tax $$) maybe a #30 to #40 org spec for the favor...
SDP sends Myers + $9 mil cash and CF Matt Acosta (A+ Ft Wayne) to Orioles... net cost to Padres $$ $9 mil..(saves them $2.7 mil in luxury tax/ and more importantly resets lux tax for 2023)
Orioles send Lux tax relief ... net $$ cost to Orioles $0
Myers could also just DH in Baltimore if the O's indeed trade Mancini but remain in the WC hunt..with their ramp up going well no need for Orioles to buy at the deadline this year ..nor sell much more than a Mancini or Santander type ..keeping the team on course for 23 and beyond.. Myers just DHing should keep them interesting for 22
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Jeremy Hill
#468 · July 19, 2022, 10:09 am
Did a look at WASH farm system ranking from one site ... done as a new ranking in June ... they were 29th in MLB. That combined with one of the worst teams in MLB this season and if they dealt Soto and Bell it almost has to be to maximize prospects in the return and not focus on trading a bad contract. They are not going to be relevant for years and more payroll space now will not help the future.
Take Soto and Bell out of their line-up in 2023 coming off an ugly 2022 for the team ... they will be lucky to win 50 games and no amount of FA signings with the extra payroll space will help.
#469 · July 19, 2022, 10:13 am
Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 9:36 amQuote from BoosterSD on July 19, 2022, 9:16 amQuote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 9:03 amSide on Corbin ... he is 33 and his past three season had an ERA well over 5.00 ... basically an expensive version of Snell. If you don't like Hosmer, you will not like Corbin and both at their ages are not likely to return to their peaks. At least Hosmer lower cost.
Sounds like that idea was floated by an East Coast WASH centric person who has had it with Corbin and is working to create some kind of logic to get him out .... sort of their version of us trying to get Hosmer out.
Yes, with Corbin you are taking a BIG gamble on some sort of bounce back. However, the one thing that he has going over Snell is he posts up every 5 days and eats innings, something Snell cant seem to do.
So take a look at 2022 stats. Corbin ERA of 5.87 in 99 IP, or Snells 5.22 ERA in 50 IP? Seems like the benefits of Corbin is saving the BP innings and with a change of scenery and Niebla as pitching coach, something good could happen; and OH, have Soto in the line up in between Tatis and Machado.
That could be good!?!?!
Would be better to have neither Snell or Corbin? Not a solely either or scenario. The Corbin AAV of $29MM is $19MM more than Snell's ... so would limit signings to fill out the rest of the roster.
Avoid Corbin ... trade Snell ... go with Morejon and good chance a better outcome and a much lower cost and with a future. Learn to love Hosmer.
I understand the Hosmer hate but that hate expires at the end of this season. With his salary going down to 13/yr he is a serviceable bat in the 7-8 range for next year. We can't have an all star at every position and we could do worse than him.
#470 · July 19, 2022, 10:16 am
I think Fenn has it mostly right. With the new CBA the AAV is recalculated based on the remainder of the contract at the time of the trade. I don't know the exact number, but I think Hosmer's would drop from 18m to somewhere around 14m and Corbin's would go up from 23 1/3m to somewhere in the 29-30m range.
I don't really think including Hosmer and Corbin would make sense for either team. If the Nats want to lessen their return by shedding a bad contract I'm sure they'll be able to do it without taking on another one in return. Hosmer and Soto are basically a wash for this season from an AAV perspective. Adding Corbin would push the Padres past the second threshold this year and make the situation worse moving forward.