Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 12:51 pm

Just an expectation setting from the national media and Vegas betting lines ... not always reliable and often seeking to engage larger markets BUT SD is listed in the 10th to 15th range as a likely spot for Soto.

Odds are favoring the usual suspects NYY and NYM ... LAD and SF ahead of SD ... and in one STL is the favorite.

Clearly no one has any real insight (if he is actually dealt NOW vs this just being a preliminary fishing exercise) and maybe underestimates Preller / Siedler combo of making deals / spending money.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 19, 2022, 1:15 pm

If we going to get Soto it will have to be before the deadline I would think...as we would need to pivot to maybe Contreras or Bell/Mancini/others at Deadline if we don't win the Soto sweepstakes... cant have another Max situation develop..now we have him now we dont and b÷ left out of any deadline deals...

Quote from lafnboy13 on July 19, 2022, 1:56 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on July 19, 2022, 12:39 pm

Obviously, before any trade for Soto "could" happen, gotta find out whats going to happen with Musgrove. IF he does extend in the next couple of days, what is his number, and then what room does SD have under the CBT going forward.

***By the way, anyone on this page for a long period of time, who would have thought the we SD fans would be on trade deadline chat, and wondering how SD could improve the team AND stay under the CBT. We have come a long ways from, hey, we got this aging vet player, maybe SD can move him for a prospect that could develop.

We have some "good problems" these days fellow friar fans!!

We paid the price and hung on during some very sad seasons. Let's enjoy this.

Quote from WindsorUK on July 19, 2022, 2:42 pm

How much is Trea Turner likely to get this off season? Freddie Freeman type deal? That's a HELLUVA lot more palatable than Soto's asking price....not to mention the cost in prospects.

Referring back to Henry's list of top prospects 7 or 8 years ago, I'd say having Turner( one of the top 15-20 players in all of baseball ) and Renfroe( 30 HR guy, gold glove caliber D in RF or LF) would make me pretty happy right now.

With AJ's record on trades( he's lost more than he's won), I'm NOT trading the farm( for the umpteenth time, we need AFFORDABLE talent to pay for the Tatis, Machado, and Musgrove's of the world) for what could possible be a 2 and a half year rental.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 19, 2022, 3:09 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on July 19, 2022, 2:42 pm

How much is Trea Turner likely to get this off season? Freddie Freeman type deal? That's a HELLUVA lot more palatable than Soto's asking price....not to mention the cost in prospects.

Referring back to Henry's list of top prospects 7 or 8 years ago, I'd say having Turner( one of the top 15-20 players in all of baseball ) and Renfroe( 30 HR guy, gold glove caliber D in RF or LF) would make me pretty happy right now.

With AJ's record on trades( he's lost more than he's won), I'm NOT trading the farm( for the umpteenth time, we need AFFORDABLE talent to pay for the Tatis, Machado, and Musgrove's of the world) for what could possible be a 2 and a half year rental.

He lost the Nola one..yes

I know the Myers one hurt.. but we got  good production from it and still have Castillo RP in AAA to come.. in the mean time Turner has been traded from us to Rays to Nats to LAD... sure I'll give you an L

The Kemp/Upton etc tradesbm he made as a rookie GM he was told to make by ownership..so ibam not going to judge him on those... But to me those are all his Loses

Now the W's

Musgrove -Massive Win

Yu - massive win

Manea - Win

Clevinger - looking like a Win

Snell - push atm

Tatis - best one sided trade since Babe Ruth

Crone - huge W

Profar - Win

Alfaro - grand theft W (for $$)

Hand *from Miami to SD = big W

Grisham - meh.. Urias struggles..Grish struggles WAR wise a Win for us..Lauer development a win for them..push

Voit - meh.. we gotten production NY hasn't yet

Rogers - Big Win

Even the Frazier trade looking alright from both ends the coming and the going ..looks like we got a couple lotto tickets who look like potential solid pieces...

So besides the Nola trade... I really can't blame AJP for doing what he did when he did.. it.... France sure would look nice at DH right now..but there was no DH then and we had Manny and Hosmer at 3B/1B so he was a third wheel .. with few ABs in SD and Nola was an ascending unconventional older spec who didn't have a long enough track record to trade what we did for him.. Still am haunted by France not in SD.... but when u have Hedges at C with Zero production with the bat..something needed to be done...

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 3:33 pm

Trea Turner will pull in at least $280MM/8 years … he will be 30 so 8 years should be the top out but could be light on the AAV at $35MM.

Elite FA this winter … some reports he want to go back to the East Coast (but likely will take the highest offer). Somewhat of an unknown about his willingness to play CF vs SS. A lot of his game is based on speed … so always some concern when he is near the end of the contract in his mid-late 30s.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 4:25 pm

Interesting spin on what WASH would want in a SOTO trade. Basically take fewer propsects in the deal if a team to Corbin’s contract … but not take any contract in return to offset the money for Soto + Corbin.

The logic is that WASH’s ownership is trying to sell the Nationals … and eliminating a major liability (Corbin) along with Soto’s salary would make the balance sheet more appealing to a buyer and give the new owner a “clean sheet” to build the team as the see fit.

———————-

The alternate speculation is that this exercise is merely to test the market and get a group of potential deals (returns) to show to the new buyers  (if the new owners want to sell on Soto) what that asset may be worth … and that may help the deal go through at a better price.

——————-

Wonder how much influence the potential new owners have on a trade Soto deal. I could see … if they spent a lot to buy the team … not wanting to spend much on the team in the early years as they recoup cash flow.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 19, 2022, 5:36 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 4:25 pm

Interesting spin on what WASH would want in a SOTO trade. Basically take fewer propsects in the deal if a team to Corbin’s contract … but not take any contract in return to offset the money for Soto + Corbin.

The logic is that WASH’s ownership is trying to sell the Nationals … and eliminating a major liability (Corbin) along with Soto’s salary would make the balance sheet more appealing to a buyer and give the new owner a “clean sheet” to build the team as the see fit.

———————-

The alternate speculation is that this exercise is merely to test the market and get a group of potential deals (returns) to show to the new buyers  (if the new owners want to sell on Soto) what that asset may be worth … and that may help the deal go through at a better price.

——————-

Wonder how much influence the potential new owners have on a trade Soto deal. I could see … if they spent a lot to buy the team … not wanting to spend much on the team in the early years as they recoup cash flow.

So what's the prospect ask with +Corbin in the equation..are we now in the Hassell +Campusano + Wethers + Rosario gets it done territory?

Figure out CBT moves after

Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 5:57 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 19, 2022, 5:36 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 19, 2022, 4:25 pm

Interesting spin on what WASH would want in a SOTO trade. Basically take fewer propsects in the deal if a team to Corbin’s contract … but not take any contract in return to offset the money for Soto + Corbin.

The logic is that WASH’s ownership is trying to sell the Nationals … and eliminating a major liability (Corbin) along with Soto’s salary would make the balance sheet more appealing to a buyer and give the new owner a “clean sheet” to build the team as the see fit.

———————-

The alternate speculation is that this exercise is merely to test the market and get a group of potential deals (returns) to show to the new buyers  (if the new owners want to sell on Soto) what that asset may be worth … and that may help the deal go through at a better price.

——————-

Wonder how much influence the potential new owners have on a trade Soto deal. I could see … if they spent a lot to buy the team … not wanting to spend much on the team in the early years as they recoup cash flow.

So what's the prospect ask with +Corbin in the equation..are we now in the Hassell +Campusano + Wethers + Rosario gets it done territory?

Figure out CBT moves after

The bigger question is how could the Padres add the AAV for 2022 and with Soto’s arbitration even more in 2023 (could be $50MM+) and still sign Musgrove plus others to fill out a competitive roster and need to have a handle on that before the deal lest they head for the penalty and the second tier penalties in 2023 (even more money).

Have not for some time been able to deal full contracts for Hosmer, Snell so why should that change? Can’t even see moving Darvish’s $20MM. Maybe do not re-sign Musgrove.

But if went that way … WASH would still demand one headline prospect in return then maybe fill with others. Probably Gore since the best of the rest from the Padres would be position players.