Quote from BoosterSD on July 8, 2022, 9:34 am

Yes, but Profar can opt out, Myers is FA, leaving us only Grisham, and the not so desirable pieces of Rooker, Beatty, and Khowley for OF options at this time. So I would prefer to keep the guy that is closer and performing better. Over Wood who even you say is a long shot.

Quote from Randy Manese on July 8, 2022, 10:43 am

Hassell's approach at the plate is almost major league ready; still gets fooled at times by off-speed stuff when he guessing but if he lets the game come to him, he's a major league hitter who probably can hit around .275 with a 350+ OBP and maybe 15 HR's max.  Would like to see him develop his lower body more to elevate that power stroke but don't want him to lose any of his speed, which is one of his assets.

Re: Wood, I don't think Wood is a long shot, but rather a longer ways away.  He shows flashes of superior talent but at times he seems to lose focus.  However, you have to like the fact that his K rate is way down from last year (from almost 32% to just over 16.5%), has almost the same number of walks as K's and he's generally hitting the ball with excellent impact.  If you can keep Wood's head in the game, I believe his ceiling will be higher than Hassell.  He does have to move to a corner OF spot, however, as his routes are not the best in CF.  If he progresses as expected, probably move to Ft Wayne before the end of this year and then start 2023 in San Antonio if he tears up the Midwest League.  Otherwise, he'll follow the same path as Hassell did this year - expect Hassell in San Antonio after the Futures Game.

Quote from Randy Manese on July 8, 2022, 11:09 am

With regard to Reynolds, was off to a slow start this year which is reflected in the two analytics I use for player worth.  Currently, sits at 86 HctX and 123 wRC+.  However, his past performance projects to an HctX of somewhere between 110-115, which is in the Very Good area. With regard to wRC+, currently sits at 123 but past performance projects to the high 120's to low 130's, which is almost in the elite area.  The fact that he is only 27 1/2, likely means he still has some growth in the next couple of years.  If you stick him in the line-up with a slighter older Machado and a younger Tatis, that line-up immediately becomes much much stronger.  Pirates have been a good trade partner in the past - how about one more!

Going forward, you can probably expect Machado to be in the low 130's as HctX and somewhere in the high 130's for wRC+.  Tatis, if fully healthy, probably projects a little higher than Machado, in the mid to high 130's as HctX and in the low 140's for wRC+ - these numbers for Tatis are both in the elite level which is why we need him to take care of himself physically irrespective of where he plays.

Quote from fenn68 on July 8, 2022, 11:22 am

Still working through which teams will be buyers not just who I think might (or should) be buyers ... and motivated buyers to actually give up something worthwhile. Then sort which of maybe multiple needs do they prioritize as their prime target.

Then there is the next group that are more likely to stand pat (other than minor tinkering) believing they are already in a good position and any major upgrade is too expensive (or they don't have the resources ... prospects / money). In the same group may be a team such as BALT which has surprised most by becoming a team on the rise with a young roster (except for Mancini) and may just not want to move any young talent. Although PITT may be convinced to deal Reynolds ... he is only at $6.750MM and has 3 more years control, so can hold out now for more than anyone would pay or wait and market to a larger buyer pool in the winter.

Then we get to the clear sellers ... and collectively how much talent is available from that pool ... which positions ... and who may be truly interested and willing to pay (see above) to get them.

Hard to work through what a contender would pay for a 2 month rental (no matter how good) knowing the risk that that add might not continue to perform in a new environment and may not be the piece that improves their lot in the playoffs. Even Bell and Contreras are gambles and although "nice" adds for some contenders ... price? Keep in mind the value of prospects has never been considered higher.

Would expect SP / RP / OF to be the most pursued trade targets from the contenders. Bell may make sense for a couple of teams (BOST for sure but so is SP as injuries mount up and that may be more critical). No idea which contender would have Contreras as a top priority add. We COULD see both linger until higher priority pursuits are exhausted. At that point they may be had at a very reasonable price ... well below any of the Padre top prospects.

However, how to clear CBT space? Three options, 1) trade a high CBT player that someone wants for minimal return of prospects. (see Snell, Clevinger, Martinez, other pitchers); 2) give better prospects and link an offsetting contract ... likely a FA to be (Stammen, Johnson, Clevinger, Manaea, etc); or 3) give better prospects and have the seller eat all or part of the players remaining contract (send cash in the deal).

Throw in one other concept that has been expressed by a GM ... he would rather keep the FA to be and get nothing than to be perceived as an easy mark by trading a quality player for a string of non-prospects (lottery pick types). Basically strengthening his credibility in future negotiations.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 8, 2022, 11:38 am

Given what look to be a real OF issue in 2023 (more than now) ... strategy in the Padres front office has to be debating alternative strategies under the base case of not being able to sign FA OF ... while spending money on the FA SP (Musgrove, et. al).

IF they believe in Ruiz (LF/CF) and are willing to commit to Kim at SS for his defense ... Tatis to the OF makes some sense in theory. That would limit the OF need to one slot ... and maybe that is handled by extending Profar. That would mean some lower cost FA to fill out the bench. IF that was a pathway ... and with Hassell and maybe Abrams coming soon ... adding a long term OF (high cost OF) may not be the route.

I guess that moves to pursue a "rental" for second tier prospects to support 2022 then reevaluate in the winter post FA and after understand the probability of signing the likes of Profar and Musgrove ... and maybe the others.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 8, 2022, 12:17 pm

The Pirates getting Abrams also allows them to move O’Neill Cruz to RF where he belongs.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 8, 2022, 12:19 pm

Most Padre fans would riot though if we traded Abrams.

I agree with the move though….we need outfielders.

There’s  no reason to compare Reynolds to the Frazier deal either…..which many will do.

 

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on July 8, 2022, 12:34 pm

My gut says AJP loves Reynolds and finds a way to get him at or before the deadline...

What other corresponding moves or add-ons take place is anyone's guess... Reynolds and Tatis (return) added to Machado gives us 3 of the best players in the Majors at 3 of the hardest positions to fill...

SP becomes the offseasons main $$$ priority..because of lack of depth at the high levels

Internal BP options are many and almost a non issue for 2023 with Health of current IL guys as the key factor

IF pretty set for next few yrs

So with Reynolds on fold..pads could spend around $10 mil on 1 FA per... (assuming Hassell gone in Reynolds deal) ..Tatis or CJ would be a 2nd OFer in 2023... leaving 1 OF spot open with Grishman/Azocar/Rooker/Ruiz as controllable options.... or a Profar/Mazara type resigning with the $10 mil in mind... a Gallo or Myers show me $8mil 1+1 type deal..perhaps Comforto falls in this category as well... not sure what Peralta/Benintendi/Brantley/Nimmo would want in FA money but maybe one of them in the low end of the $$$ ask gets signed

Quote from fenn68 on July 8, 2022, 12:50 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 8, 2022, 12:17 pm

The Pirates getting Abrams also allows them to move O’Neill Cruz to RF where he belongs.

 

Problem is that Abrams is far from what the Pirates would want … and not filler for the rest of the deal. So, would deal Abrams in a Reynolds deal but it is the second and third piece that will be the roadblock as PITT asks for Abrams - Gore - Hassell.