Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2019, 6:23 am

Quote from David Nevin on November 20, 2019, 5:43 am

His home/away splits are either an anomaly or he just pitches better when he's sleeping in his own bed/not traveling.

Either way that bodes well for us if his home is no longer Colorado but San Diego.

With a move to Petco possibly his away numbers become his current home numbers and his home numbers come down even more?

 

 

Gamble ... COULD yes ... what is that gamble worth? Salary space / prospects also COULD be used for potentially more reliable productivity. Plus since Gray has only 2 years of control ... and given the rest of the roster ... half of his control time will be in a non-playoff year.

Not that I would not make a deal for Gray but just would not give up any significant prospect .... and COLO would demand that or would just keep Gray and try to build even greater value during 2020 (maybe at trade deadline).

I am sort of off adding SP that could improve (or rebound) to be productive ... more either add a proven TOR type (Cole, Strasburg, maybe Wheeler) ... or go with the upside of the internal candidates to go with Richards: Paddack; Lamet; Lucchesi; Lauer; Quantrill (that is 6) then as soon as appropriate slide in Gore, Patino, Morejon, Baez, Bolanos. Don't clog the pipeline with the maybes / coulds when they already have that potential with a multitude of prospects.

IF they take upside gambles (not sure they should) it may be more valuable to do that with offense where the Padres have a need without much near term internal support ... specifically in the OF.

Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2019, 6:30 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 20, 2019, 5:58 am

Look at Cole and look at Gray at similar stages of their career.. Same with Wheeler and Stras

Those 2 "potentially" could be added for $8-$10 mil less (combined) and maybe turn into those 2.. Even if they just maintain status quo they will help our 5 immensely.. Hedges + Q + Gettys + Ona.. For Gray + Intl $$ slot

 

Think COLO would hold out for a lot more in talent or just keep Gray (no incentive to deal him). Add that they are a bottom tier team (just like the Padres) so giving one of their better players for the unwanted from another bottom tier team seems on the surface a poor choice.

Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2019, 6:59 am

MLBTradeRumors today suggested that the Braves may be motivated to move Inciarte to clear some payroll space for a more significant signing on the FA market.

Inciarte has been mentioned on this sight numerous times as a plus defensive CF ... LHH ... still in his late 20s ... BUT with some recent history of injuries. 2 years plus option ($7.7 - 8.7 - 9.0). IF healthy that is good value given his history and the 3 years gives some protection until Trammell, J.Rosario, maybe Abrams set-up to secure CF.

Given the dearth of legit CF on the FA / trade market ... and a few teams wanting CF .... Atlanta is in a good position to squeeze out a good return (probably not great one but good). Some question of their willingness to go with Pache / Waters as rookies in CF or go with Acuna in CF.

Since part of the motivation of Atlanta is dropping his salary .... should get away with prospects (probably non-roster). On the other hand, their corner OF is still in flux .... especially if Riley moves back to 3B and Markakis is just an aging platoon piece. They have a ton of pitching prospects .... so not likely that works.

Maybe something that may use France, Cordero, Potts, Ona in some combo while taking the entire contract MIGHT be a starting point ... and always RP prospects hold value to round out a deal.

Quote from Cptjack on November 20, 2019, 7:35 am

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2019, 6:59 am

Inciarte has been mentioned on this site numerous times as a plus defensive CF ... LHH ... still in his late 20s ... BUT with some recent history of injuries. 2 years plus option ($7.7 - 8.7 - 9.0).

I don't know why. The numbers are definitively against Inciarte and his bloated contract. The CF WAR pace is above 2. Which means you need to pace 3WAR to be worth 1WAR:$ with that number being around 9m. Most projections have him around 1.5WAR over 400-550AB.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 20, 2019, 7:55 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2019, 6:59 am

MLBTradeRumors today suggested that the Braves may be motivated to move Inciarte to clear some payroll space for a more significant signing on the FA market.

You would wonder with his injury history, along with salary, and giving up prospects, is he that much better than just a possible signing of Akiyama? Giving the projection from MLBTR that Akiyama could be had for 2 years at less than just the first year of Inciarte, is Inciarte worth the prospect dollars and not being on the field due to injuries? Those are my two questions.

If healthy, I do like Inciarte's OBP and defense. And he could make Margot available in a package for either Benintendi or Conforto. And SD could probably live with an CF platoon of Inciarte and Gettys in 2020 while waiting for Trammell.

How good would SD OF look with a Dickerson, Inciarte/Gettys, Renfroe/Conforto configuration?

Of course, would still have to move Myers to make this happen.

Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2019, 8:18 am

Dominoes .... agree that I would not give up much in terms of prospects for Inciarte (taking the salary is enough of a risk) but adding Akiyama (at his projected cost) could fit still especially if that facilitates the trade of Margot for the real upgrade.

A lot of unknown on Akiyama’s ability to adapt to the ML but at the projected price as insurance on Inciarte and / or a 4th OF / PH LHH works.

Additinally, adding two LHH OF with some position versatility could make Naylor more available (along with Margot) in deals for other upgrades.

Preller should already have some sense of the real market for Margot and / or Naylor before pursuing the other moves.

Dominoes.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 20, 2019, 9:22 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2019, 8:18 am

Dominoes .... agree that I would not give up much in terms of prospects for Inciarte (taking the salary is enough of a risk) but adding Akiyama (at his projected cost) could fit still especially if that facilitates the trade of Margot for the real upgrade.

A lot of unknown on Akiyama’s ability to adapt to the ML but at the projected price as insurance on Inciarte and / or a 4th OF / PH LHH works.

Additinally, adding two LHH OF with some position versatility could make Naylor more available (along with Margot) in deals for other upgrades.

Preller should already have some sense of the real market for Margot and / or Naylor before pursuing the other moves.

Dominoes.

Have a feeling Mazara is a Padre today.. can seem to shake it either

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 20, 2019, 9:37 am

I wouldn't take Blackmon unless the Rox covered 75% of his contract.

Or swap with Myers....which they wouldn't do.

Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2019, 11:31 am

Nov. 20: In addition to the Mets, Chirinos has also received interest from the Astros, the Reds and the Rangers, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets.

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Probably not wanting to pay the price of Grandal as a FA.

However, does suggest a potential set of trade partners for Hedges (solo or in a multi-player package). Astros don't really need a bat at C so maybe a former catcher in Hinch likes the match. NYM may like his defense (at a low cost) to handle an elite SP staff.