Quote from MrPadre19 on November 20, 2019, 12:33 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2019, 6:23 am

Quote from David Nevin on November 20, 2019, 5:43 am

His home/away splits are either an anomaly or he just pitches better when he's sleeping in his own bed/not traveling.

Either way that bodes well for us if his home is no longer Colorado but San Diego.

With a move to Petco possibly his away numbers become his current home numbers and his home numbers come down even more?

 

 

Gamble ... COULD yes ... what is that gamble worth? Salary space / prospects also COULD be used for potentially more reliable productivity. Plus since Gray has only 2 years of control ... and given the rest of the roster ... half of his control time will be in a non-playoff year.

Not that I would not make a deal for Gray but just would not give up any significant prospect .... and COLO would demand that or would just keep Gray and try to build even greater value during 2020 (maybe at trade deadline).

I am sort of off adding SP that could improve (or rebound) to be productive ... more either add a proven TOR type (Cole, Strasburg, maybe Wheeler) ... or go with the upside of the internal candidates to go with Richards: Paddack; Lamet; Lucchesi; Lauer; Quantrill (that is 6) then as soon as appropriate slide in Gore, Patino, Morejon, Baez, Bolanos. Don't clog the pipeline with the maybes / coulds when they already have that potential with a multitude of prospects.

IF they take upside gambles (not sure they should) it may be more valuable to do that with offense where the Padres have a need without much near term internal support ... specifically in the OF.

I'm on record as wanting offense and not that interested in adding SP unless it is an "obvious" upgrade over Lauer/Lucchesi.

Discussing Gray "only" because it is a current rumor which when there's smoke.....?

I don't think he's really a "gamble" though.His current numbers aren't that bad and if he can take the ball every fifth day with no restrictions he would be a solid add.Also,the Rox are on record as wanting a C to go with Wolters so that would be why they may want Hedgey.

If it's Hedges and Quantrill for Gray I would be fine with it.Q may turn out to be a solid starter but don't see him being any more than a #3 so trading him wouldn't hurt too bad considering the depth we have and the roster space we need.

As far as Inciarte.....I've been the one tooting that horn and its mainly because the Braves don't really need him(esp. if they sign Donaldson or Moose) plus due to injury concerns the cost would be low in prospects......I also think a strict platoon with him and Margot could be productive offensively and defensively.

Don't you think the 2 combined...Margot only against LH and Inciarte only against RH would produce 2.5-3.0 WAR?

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2019, 12:50 pm

Yep think a platoon of Margot / Inciarte could be very good.

However, might choose to find a less “valuable” RHH CF option (only should play 25% of the time) and move Margot in a deal since a number of teams apparently wanting a legit CF and if nothing else Margot is a plus defensive option at a low cost with control and still to some ... upside.

Always hard to tell how different GMs view same player ... eg Margot v Inciarte so a bit of a wild card but could see Margot being very useful in a package for a bigger upgrade (corner OF?). Margot does have control, cost, health over Inciarte ... so?

Quote from JasonE135 on November 20, 2019, 1:05 pm

Colorado has already stated that they will only trade Gray if they get a major league starter and "significant prospects" in return. I don't see that as a good deal for us to add a guy whose "numbers are not that bad" and who would/could be a "solid add". If he is just a solid innings eater then we should be paying a solid innings eater price.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 20, 2019, 1:23 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2019, 12:50 pm

Yep think a platoon of Margot / Inciarte could be very good.

However, might choose to find a less “valuable” RHH CF option (only should play 25% of the time) and move Margot in a deal since a number of teams apparently wanting a legit CF and if nothing else Margot is a plus defensive option at a low cost with control and still to some ... upside.

Always hard to tell how different GMs view same player ... eg Margot v Inciarte so a bit of a wild card but could see Margot being very useful in a package for a bigger upgrade (corner OF?). Margot does have control, cost, health over Inciarte ... so?

That guy is Gettys. In our system. Will be league minimum. His BA and OBP last year versus LHP was was .260/.342, and we know he can go get the ball in the OF as good as almost anyone. So that would save about $1.5M over Margot and allow Margot to be used in the deal with NYM to get Conforto.

Dickerson, Inciarte, and Conforto versus RHSP. Dickerson, Gettys, and Renfroe versus LHSP. That OF will cost less than $28M for the year.

Quote from JasonE135 on November 20, 2019, 1:59 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on November 20, 2019, 1:23 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2019, 12:50 pm

Yep think a platoon of Margot / Inciarte could be very good.

However, might choose to find a less “valuable” RHH CF option (only should play 25% of the time) and move Margot in a deal since a number of teams apparently wanting a legit CF and if nothing else Margot is a plus defensive option at a low cost with control and still to some ... upside.

Always hard to tell how different GMs view same player ... eg Margot v Inciarte so a bit of a wild card but could see Margot being very useful in a package for a bigger upgrade (corner OF?). Margot does have control, cost, health over Inciarte ... so?

That guy is Gettys. In our system. Will be league minimum. His BA and OBP last year versus LHP was was .260/.342, and we know he can go get the ball in the OF as good as almost anyone. So that would save about $1.5M over Margot and allow Margot to be used in the deal with NYM to get Conforto.

Dickerson, Inciarte, and Conforto versus RHSP. Dickerson, Gettys, and Renfroe versus LHSP. That OF will cost less than $28M for the year.

I do love those outfield setups with Dickerson and Conforto. We can just have no confidence in Gettys. He has been around forever and he has never shown a decent bat. He strikes out at an incredible rate. He shows excellent defense and amazing tools, but he is never going to be anything more than a defensive replacement.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 20, 2019, 2:18 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on November 20, 2019, 1:05 pm

Colorado has already stated that they will only trade Gray if they get a major league starter and "significant prospects" in return. I don't see that as a good deal for us to add a guy whose "numbers are not that bad" and who would/could be a "solid add". If he is just a solid innings eater then we should be paying a solid innings eater price.

I think we all agree that we “shouldn’t” add a guy just because but that won’t stop AJ from doing it.

So that’s why it’s being discussed.

If it is Gray and if it “is” Hedges/Quantrill I think that’s a fair deal.

If he is the guy AJ wants and adding another lower level prospect gets it done them so be it.

Yes I’d prefer Cole or Strasburg.

Yes I’d rather know for sure were upgrading the offense significantly.

But without knowing any of that we can only discuss what’s “out there.

Plus I’m guessing any trade scenarios for a starter are assuming we don’t land Wheeler or Ryu via free agency.

But who really knows......(other than Preller obviously).

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 21, 2019, 4:43 am

Gamble (but likely a low risk): Jacob Ellsbury ... old, missed the last two seasons due to injury but when he was healthy a very good LHH CF.

NYY released Ellsbury and will pay his remaining contract .... likely to sign a minor league contract then if he makes the roster only cost league minimum.

Padres LHH options are Naylor (limited to a corner), Cordero (question on readiness and return for two injury laden seasons, and Trammell (non-roster and probably a year out). Signing Ellsbury does not change the objective to add LHH for the OF but just provides some back-stop if things don’t work out.

Ellsbury is apparently working on baseball activities this offseason. So, not really a money issue for either Ellsbury or the signing team but for Ellsbury finding a team with a real opportunity to make the 26 man may be the key.

Worth it for the Padres? Any other team that may be in play?

Quote from BoosterSD on November 21, 2019, 8:23 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 21, 2019, 4:43 am

Gamble (but likely a low risk): Jacob Ellsbury ... old, missed the last two seasons due to injury but when he was healthy a very good LHH CF.

NYY released Ellsbury and will pay his remaining contract .... likely to sign a minor league contract then if he makes the roster only cost league minimum.

Padres LHH options are Naylor (limited to a corner), Cordero (question on readiness and return for two injury laden seasons, and Trammell (non-roster and probably a year out). Signing Ellsbury does not change the objective to add LHH for the OF but just provides some back-stop if things don’t work out.

Ellsbury is apparently working on baseball activities this offseason. So, not really a money issue for either Ellsbury or the signing team but for Ellsbury finding a team with a real opportunity to make the 26 man may be the key.

Worth it for the Padres? Any other team that may be in play?

I think a couple of teams will be willing to take a flier on Ellsbury. Could be a good buy low gamble. I would add Ellsbury on a MiL deal with an invite to spring training. He is apparently working out in AZ, so the ability to do Spring Training in AZ might have some additional appeal to Ellsbury if a couple of teams are in on him.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 21, 2019, 8:28 am

Quote from JasonE135 on November 20, 2019, 1:59 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on November 20, 2019, 1:23 pm

Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2019, 12:50 pm

Yep think a platoon of Margot / Inciarte could be very good.

However, might choose to find a less “valuable” RHH CF option (only should play 25% of the time) and move Margot in a deal since a number of teams apparently wanting a legit CF and if nothing else Margot is a plus defensive option at a low cost with control and still to some ... upside.

Always hard to tell how different GMs view same player ... eg Margot v Inciarte so a bit of a wild card but could see Margot being very useful in a package for a bigger upgrade (corner OF?). Margot does have control, cost, health over Inciarte ... so?

That guy is Gettys. In our system. Will be league minimum. His BA and OBP last year versus LHP was was .260/.342, and we know he can go get the ball in the OF as good as almost anyone. So that would save about $1.5M over Margot and allow Margot to be used in the deal with NYM to get Conforto.

Dickerson, Inciarte, and Conforto versus RHSP. Dickerson, Gettys, and Renfroe versus LHSP. That OF will cost less than $28M for the year.

I do love those outfield setups with Dickerson and Conforto. We can just have no confidence in Gettys. He has been around forever and he has never shown a decent bat. He strikes out at an incredible rate. He shows excellent defense and amazing tools, but he is never going to be anything more than a defensive replacement.

Honestly I have about as much confidence in Margot as I do in Gettys. Yes Gettys strikes out about 30% of the time, but Margot strikes out around 20% of the time, and Gettys has more power. I dont think either one is a long term solution. So if another team has a desire to get Margot, and we use him as part of a package to get the LHH corner OF, I am fine with a year of Gettys getting about 25%± of the playing time. And even though its not a lot, Gettys would save SD about $1.5M that can be used towards a Dickerson signing.