Quote from Commie on November 19, 2019, 6:32 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 19, 2019, 5:51 pm

Quote from Commie on November 19, 2019, 5:40 pm

Quote from David Nevin on November 19, 2019, 2:34 pm

How about the Jon Gray rumors?

Hedges/Quantrill for Gray?

IMO this is a good deal both ways.

Col gets a defensive wizard at C to work/platoon with Wolters and his offense should tick up in Coors.

They also get 4 years of  quality #3-#5 starter.

We also open up one 40 man spot.

My guess is we would have to add another lower level prospect but I would get this done.

I’d rather work a deal involving Myers...he LOVES Colorado.

 

I think it would at least have to be Lucchesi+Hedges. Quantrill definitely has value, but he is a #4 fully developed. Not sure what Hedges value is right now.  Is his defense that much better than the 2nd half of the catching tandem would be in COL if the Rocks just signed a defensive specialist FA catcher? I mean both sides of ball for Hedges vs hypothetical other good D, poor hit option where Rockies get to keep Gray or move in another deal?

I'd definitely do your proposed deal of course. I have been bullish on Gray for two years now. I'd also do the deal with Lucchesi in it.  I do highly value Joey in the short term for SD however. He is the best bet to log 200 quality IP next two seasons of the guys currently on the roster.

I'd take Blackmon for LF and hit him leadoff. Money might have to go back as I believe Myers is owed more. Blackmon better performance, but Wil much younger. Still have to figure out something in CF though.  Roll the dice with Margot? JBJ platoon?

200 innings ain't what it used to be... Strasburg led the NL in IP in 2019.. with 209.... very few went over 200... 180 seems to be the new "inning eater" treshold

https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/stats?season=2019&category=PITCHING+II&group=1&time=0

Only 15 Pitchers went 200+ Innings in 2019

Only 33 went over 180 IP in 2019

 

I want guys in 1-4 spots who are likely to be there. Having quality depth is essential, but no way do I want to enter season where the goal is to win and have anything less than 200 IP as goal. Less is relative to performance. This ambiguity is narrow in my view. Issue is value to goal of contention.

A stable of #2-3 can get you to the playoffs: Series requires #1 performing SP regardless of "rank."  Exceptions prove the rule.  Solid performers during season (plus Gore coming up in August out pen) are best bets to bridge the gap.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 19, 2019, 6:34 pm

Im not a real fan of the idea of trading for Gray either. Something is not quite there with him. And a BIG hell no to Blackmon. Two reasons, he is massively a product of Coors Field, and he is owed way too much money for his age and his performance away from Coors.

Quote from TatisJr on November 19, 2019, 10:40 pm

Dealing with Colorado for Gray makes me a little nervous about a prospect overpay. Colorado will likely want a division foe to sweeten the pot. I don’t see why the Rockies would have much interest in Hedges. Wolters was great for them last year and is becoming a stud defensively in his own right.

If you want to make a bet on a 27 year old who is stuck in a hitters park, deal for Dylan Bundy. I wouldn’t mind seeing a Bundy/Santander package head to San Diego. Cantillo/Bolanos/Potts/Ona

I feel like the Padres could line up with Cubs on a big deal involving Contreras/Happ. Hedges/Lauer/Buddy Reed to CHC.

Quote from JasonE135 on November 20, 2019, 12:35 am

Quote from TatisJr on November 19, 2019, 10:40 pm

Dealing with Colorado for Gray makes me a little nervous about a prospect overpay. Colorado will likely want a division foe to sweeten the pot. I don’t see why the Rockies would have much interest in Hedges. Wolters was great for them last year and is becoming a stud defensively in his own right.

If you want to make a bet on a 27 year old who is stuck in a hitters park, deal for Dylan Bundy. I wouldn’t mind seeing a Bundy/Santander package head to San Diego. Cantillo/Bolanos/Potts/Ona

I feel like the Padres could line up with Cubs on a big deal involving Contreras/Happ. Hedges/Lauer/Buddy Reed to CHC.

Contreras grades as plus both offensively and defensively at C. Happ gets plus offense and average defense in CF. At premium positions. We would have to give the Cubs a semi truck full of emeralds to get those two. They are less available for trade than Patino is.

As far as Bundy is concerned, he has already lost 5 mph off his fastball and put up noticeably worse numbers than Lauer. He has no projection remaining. He has far less promise than Tyson Ross did the Second time we got him.

We don't need any replacement type players. We need an ACE. A true ACE. That is the only kind of pitcher we should trade good prospects for. Gray does not cut it. Neither does Boyd. If we cannot get a true ACE, we should just grab an effective innings-eater(and pay only what that is worth)and call it a day. We traded for high upside failures when we were terrible. 1 in 10-20 actually turned into something. We should be done with taking flyers. We have tons of high-upside pitchers in our system who have not gotten a chance to prove themselves. We don't need the same kinds of guys who have already had their shot and are hoping for a rebound. We don't need to pay a high price for anyone with less than stellar numbers.

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 20, 2019, 4:10 am

Quote from JasonE135 on November 19, 2019, 6:25 pm

John Gray could turn out to be a good pitcher but I wouldn't expect more than that. Yes he throws hard but the low-spin on his pitches tells me that his fastball lacks movement and his breaking balls lack break. I see him as just an innings-eating Joey Lucchesie type equivalent with a #3 type ceiling. I also see Quantrill having a much higher ceiling than Lucchesie. Quantrill can conceivably be as much as a #2 starter. He can regularly hit 97 and his slider and changeup are both definite plus. Besides which his father was a pro, he grew up in the game and he has always shown that he has the maturity and knows how to pitch.

I don’t think we can judge Blackmon based on the Coors field effect and then not also apply that to Gray and his spin rate and movement.

Certainly his spin rate and movement on his fastball away from the thin air would be improved.

Are there any stats to show this?

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2019, 5:29 am

Gray may be more upside projection than proven TOR performance .... not sure that is worth paying too much (in terms of prospect upside potential) ... yet other teams are interested so the cost to acquire should be pushed up.

Consider Gray .... 28, projected at $5.6MM for 2020, only 2 control years:

2019: 150 innings, 3.84 ERA / 1.35 WHIP but breaking that down:

AWAY from Coors: 4.22 ERA / 1.42 WHIP

HOME at Coors: 3.46 ERA / 1.29 WHIP ... noticeably lower than AWAY.

For comparison in 2019 Luchessi went 164 innings with a 4.18 ERA / 1.22 WHIP ... and he is only 26 at league minimum and under control for 4 years ... yet many on the website don't value Lucchesi much beyond a potential trade chip as part of a bigger deal. Yet, except for perceived up side potential, Lucchesi is not that different than Gray in actual performance.

Begs the question on really wanting Gray (for POTENTIAL) vs. working the potential of the internal candidates (cheaper  / longer control) and if yes, how much to pay for that potential. Conversely, if Gray is worth trading quality players ... maybe we are underestimating the potential return for Lucchesi?

For me, with limited payroll flexibility, not sure the gamble on Gray is worth it to cost (salary / prospects).

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 20, 2019, 5:43 am

His home/away splits are either an anomaly or he just pitches better when he's sleeping in his own bed/not traveling.

Either way that bodes well for us if his home is no longer Colorado but San Diego.

With a move to Petco possibly his away numbers become his current home numbers and his home numbers come down even more?

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on November 20, 2019, 5:48 am

As with Gray, have the same issue with taking a gamble on Blackman.

Blackman is already 33 and has a contract with PLAYER options that extends out for 4 years: $21MM - 21MM - 21MM - 10MM (age 36) = $73MM. Then consider 2019:

HOME at COORS: 379/435/739

AWAY from COORS: 256/299/432 ... that is not a $21MM player .. and worse that is a longer term commitment.

In Blackman's case would prefer to use the limited payroll space to add upgrades that are less of a gamble (and younger) let alone give up prospects that could be used in better deals (or just have value to the Padres).

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 20, 2019, 5:58 am

Look at Cole and look at Gray at similar stages of their career.. Same with Wheeler and Stras

Those 2 "potentially" could be added for $8-$10 mil less (combined) and maybe turn into those 2.. Even if they just maintain status quo they will help our 5 immensely.. Hedges + Q + Gettys + Ona.. For Gray + Intl $$ slot