Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2019, 7:52 am

Quote from David Nevin on July 30, 2019, 6:23 am

In the "Where there's smoke there's usually fire" category.

It seems the names most associated with a trade for Thor are Urias and Margot.

Also Mets interested in a Catcher and of course,minor league arm/s.

With many teams interested(Astros,Yankees,Braves etc) that we would have to outbid....does AJ give up a package like:

Margot/Urias/Hedges/Wingenter?

or

Margot/Urias/A.Allen/Avila?

I'm not sure how I'd feel about either?

 

 

Well nothing is locked in stone given negotiations are "fluid" but the Padres have pretty much indicated that they are not trading Urias. Given the Stroman return, Urias as a Top 30 MLB prospect inclusion is way too rich. Then I would doubt they want to move Hedges until they have a final read on Mejia (plus his trade value is nearly zip given his bat).

I could see Margot in play .. METS really need a legit defensive CF (he is also low cost / long control) and should be the key piece. Maybe include Wingenter which immediately helps their pen to seal the deal. METS want to contend in 2020 ... so those two make sense. I guess I could live with a Myers / Jankowski CF for the foreseeable future.

Since I am not that convinced that only getting THOR for 2 years ... given the Padres current holes ... is worth a huge package in light of the Stroman deal .... I would be restrained. On the other side, not sure why a team such as the Astros who really have a need for a top SP for the rest of this season and the next two are not putting up that 'better" package. A lot of contenders have elite prospects and a more immediate needs ... deal not happening ... so Preller has to take this to the 11th hour and not pay the METS ask and pay only the minimum required. Still not totally convinced the METS will deal him if they want to win in 2020. However, hard to figure out the GM's thinking.

This one may go to the deadline (1 PM in SD).

Quote from Cptjack on July 30, 2019, 8:01 am

Anyone still focused on Thor is committing a massive blunder. Atlanta is the real prize to extract value given their record, playoff hopes, and need for an OFer and RP.

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2019, 8:10 am

In the ebb and flow of rumors ... sounds as though a deal of Yates is not getting any run but the possibly of a deal involving Reyes is on the rise.

On Yates, a bit of radio silence even among the rumors surrounding the potential trades of other closer candidates. Again, using the Stroman return as a baseline, not sure the return Yates would generate now would be significantly better for the Padres organization than his value to the Padres in 2020 and significantly better that the return they could get next trade deadline. Maybe Yates' highest trade value now but that is not a reason to take any deal that generates just a low ceiling prospect to add to a rich farm system. Looking like a "hold".

On Reyes, the recent work by Renfroe and his all around game seems to have moved the Padres into his camp over Reyes. Then add that a lot of rumors surrounding similar profiles (not great defense but big bat). Reyes is long control and low cost ... always a buyer favorite. Odds are up on a move here but still the return is key (not just trying to get rid of him) and he can be dealt this winter in a package ... so no urgency with Preller.

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2019, 8:25 am

Quote from Cptjack on July 30, 2019, 8:01 am

Anyone still focused on Thor is committing a massive blunder. Atlanta is the real prize to extract value given their record, playoff hopes, and need for an OFer and RP.

Agree in part, but ATL is another organization difficult to read on what their motivations are and what they see as their options. Pretty much saying they are not dealing Pache / Waters / Wright / Anderson which should limit the their chances of getting some deals for high profile players.

With Markakis out for 6-8 weeks, Riley having totally faded after a hot start, Inciarte not rebounding as hoped, and their prospect not yet ready (both in AA) the OF and offense needs support. Would add that Camargo is needed to cover SS while Swanson is on the IL plus Camargo is not exactly matching his 2018 production. Then leaping ahead Donaldson and Markakis are FA after the season. Yes, they need some OF and probably in 2020.

Is that need more than a veteran SP (their better young arms are passing their historical innings already ... will they last to the playoffs) and clearly they need RP?

They are not going to give up that much out of their system to deal with all those issues ... especially if they don't move their top 4 prospects. Which is the priority and will they opt for short term, low cost, quick fix rentals? Then in the Stroman return just reducing their motivation (need) to move any major piece in a deal.

Preller would have to be pressing on one of the top 4 to move much of anything to Atlanta ... otherwise maybe a home for Stammen.

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2019, 8:53 am

Afternoon game today ... off day tomorrow. A nice window to focus on the trade deadline and other moves with the next game on Thursday August 1 and close by in LA.

Trade deadline is 1 PM out here on the West Coast. So a lot of time (about 18 hours) to get new players on board and in LA for the next game.

Might be (but not necessarily) a clue of who is in play based on today's line-up ... try to avoid that deal breaking injury.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 30, 2019, 9:03 am

Atlanta’s ability to hold onto all those top 4 prospects may have went out the window with the recent injuries.

If they want to “go for it” this year they may have to reconsider and try to get a Reyes/Yates type return to secure the Division and their playoff hopes.

You’re not going to get those two(or two like them) without including at least one of those top 4....more likely 2.

 

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2019, 9:43 am

Quote from David Nevin on July 30, 2019, 9:03 am

Atlanta’s ability to hold onto all those top 4 prospects may have went out the window with the recent injuries.

If they want to “go for it” this year they may have to reconsider and try to get a Reyes/Yates type return to secure the Division and their playoff hopes.

You’re not going to get those two(or two like them) without including at least one of those top 4....more likely 2.

 

 

 

The key is how much they really want to go for it. Can spin their position a couple of ways ... they are in first in their division with a "nice lead" over WASH (having injury issues with Scherzer and the worst bullpen in the NL) and PHIL with just a lot of holes. Would not take all that much to stay ahead of the competitions. On the other hand, likely to come up against the NL Central winner in the first round ... not in a great position to win there ... and if they did, a real hard road against the LAD. Do you go "all in" if getting to the WS has to go through those two hurdles? And if you do, have you damaged your future?

However, with WASH the hottest team in the NL recently, ATL could be caught and given the tight WC race could actually fall out of the WC slot ... will only take one bad streak and with their injures / under performance that is possible. I guess that could motivate them to secure their position or ... given all the needs ... conclude that taking the risk with a "hold" + minor adds is wiser.

Not as clear cut a call as the "go for it" supporters envision.

Quote from fenn68 on July 30, 2019, 9:48 am

The Rays are working the phones on multiple fronts, with the evident aim of adding pitching as well as a bat. In that latter pursuit, the team has engaged the padres regarding corner outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link).

Quote from 3fingersplit on July 30, 2019, 9:57 am

Trade deadline is just a nation wide game of chicken....who is going to blink first and who is going to have buyers remorse on thursday because they gave up way to much on wednesday. If the Padres were actually within a game of the Wild Card maybe you get froggy and do something but this team is more likely to run off a 6 game losing streak than a 6 game winning streak and there isn't a player that might be available that will make the difference for this year.

Set the ground work for off season trades to improve your team. With that being said the Indians needs a DH type outfielder ( Reyes and a few minor pieces ) for the guy that threw the ball over the center field fence and from the report I got.....it was a strike :). I think adding a solid starting pitcher that is a headcase would be awesome for the Padres and watching Andy Green try to spin that would be hilarious.