Quote from fenn68 on July 27, 2019, 4:38 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 27, 2019, 3:54 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 27, 2019, 2:27 pm

We must have entered an alternate reality. The trade deadline has historically been the time when contenders pony up a premium to get key pieces for a pennant run.

Yet, in the above scenario, we have Toronto a non-contender, Mets a non-contender, and SD a non-contender all involved in a theoretical deal including two of the most sought after players available. Where are all the contenders? Don’t they see these guys the as worth a playoff run premium? Why are TOR and NYM not first pursuing premium returns? Is SD paying a premium (potentially) for someone others don’t deserve the premium even in a pennant race? Is this all mis-direction to get better offers from contenders for Stroman and Syndergaard?

All sounds suspect but worried (no matter who the Padres put in a deal) it will be an overpay given the lack of apparent strong competition for Syndergaard.

Ummm... doesn't the LACK of competition for him make it a better deal??!

Not as insane as it sounds; Stroman DOESN'T make any sense for Pads since only controlled next year.  Likely are trying to drum up interest in Thor b/c other teams know Pads with oodles of prospects are interested in him so interest may be muted as in "what's the point, Pads will throw in another prospect & beat us"... pure speculation.

Guys down on Thor but up on Garrett Richards make no sense.  15.5 - 18 MM for one year off TJ Surg for Richards vs 20-22 MM for 2+ years of Thor?   We clearly disagree on Thor's  value, but Pads can't roll out 2 guys off TJ surg + 4 rookie/1st/2nd year in MLB guys as a playoff/world series contending rotation.  It's ridiculous to "rely" on Gore to lead us to the promised land as an innings limited rookie at age 21.  You DO want to A) buy low, and B) trade for guys getting below market $, DON'T want to overpay vets coming off good seasons (Kinsler!)

Not if the Mets don’t have to trade him ... and they don’t. Since without significant improvement to the offense, improving the pitching although good is not going to get them to the contending mode.

Now taking a different tact .. a plus in adding Syndergaard (2 years) .... depending who is given up ... does potentially allow the Padres to move more ML ready arms for that offense. Some gambles (but all the moves are) ... if they lock into a 2020 SP staff of Richards (1 year replaced by Morejon in 2021), Syndergaard (2 years replaced by Patino in 2022), Lucchesi (4 years), Paddack (5 years), and Gore (6 years) as the core, then that opens up for trade (for offensive help) potentially Lauer, Lamet, L.Allen, Quantrill all legit prospects and ML ready. Next wave of SP is way off (and not yet considered even a 50 rating) so core 7 is key. A Morejon or Patino in the wings (bullpen or AA/AAA) make them ML ready if any of the first 5 have issues (at least one will).

For teams than need low cost, long control SP ... even Lauer, Lamet, Allen, and Quantrill should look good and bundle them with position players of limited future value to the Padres (but legit prospects) like Naylor, A.Allen, France, any combo of the OF and they may get that needed OF upgrade or two.

So a domino game that changes if the Syndergaard domino falls first.

 

Quote from Commie on July 27, 2019, 5:18 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 27, 2019, 4:38 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 27, 2019, 3:54 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 27, 2019, 2:27 pm

We must have entered an alternate reality. The trade deadline has historically been the time when contenders pony up a premium to get key pieces for a pennant run.

Yet, in the above scenario, we have Toronto a non-contender, Mets a non-contender, and SD a non-contender all involved in a theoretical deal including two of the most sought after players available. Where are all the contenders? Don’t they see these guys the as worth a playoff run premium? Why are TOR and NYM not first pursuing premium returns? Is SD paying a premium (potentially) for someone others don’t deserve the premium even in a pennant race? Is this all mis-direction to get better offers from contenders for Stroman and Syndergaard?

All sounds suspect but worried (no matter who the Padres put in a deal) it will be an overpay given the lack of apparent strong competition for Syndergaard.

Ummm... doesn't the LACK of competition for him make it a better deal??!

Not as insane as it sounds; Stroman DOESN'T make any sense for Pads since only controlled next year.  Likely are trying to drum up interest in Thor b/c other teams know Pads with oodles of prospects are interested in him so interest may be muted as in "what's the point, Pads will throw in another prospect & beat us"... pure speculation.

Guys down on Thor but up on Garrett Richards make no sense.  15.5 - 18 MM for one year off TJ Surg for Richards vs 20-22 MM for 2+ years of Thor?   We clearly disagree on Thor's  value, but Pads can't roll out 2 guys off TJ surg + 4 rookie/1st/2nd year in MLB guys as a playoff/world series contending rotation.  It's ridiculous to "rely" on Gore to lead us to the promised land as an innings limited rookie at age 21.  You DO want to A) buy low, and B) trade for guys getting below market $, DON'T want to overpay vets coming off good seasons (Kinsler!)

Not if the Mets don’t have to trade him ... and they don’t. Since without significant improvement to the offense, improving the pitching although good is not going to get them to the contending mode.

Now taking a different tact .. a plus in adding Syndergaard (2 years) .... depending who is given up ... does potentially allow the Padres to move more ML ready arms for that offense. Some gambles (but all the moves are) ... if they lock into a 2020 SP staff of Richards (1 year replaced by Morejon in 2021), Syndergaard (2 years replaced by Patino in 2022), Lucchesi (4 years), Paddack (5 years), and Gore (6 years) as the core, then that opens up for trade (for offensive help) potentially Lauer, Lamet, L.Allen, Quantrill all legit prospects and ML ready. Next wave of SP is way off (and not yet considered even a 50 rating) so core 7 is key. A Morejon or Patino in the wings (bullpen or AA/AAA) make them ML ready if any of the first 5 have issues (at least one will).

For teams than need low cost, long control SP ... even Lauer, Lamet, Allen, and Quantrill should look good and bundle them with position players of limited future value to the Padres (but legit prospects) like Naylor, A.Allen, France, any combo of the OF and they may get that needed OF upgrade or two.

So a domino game that changes if the Syndergaard domino falls first.

 

Wonder if they could extend Thor?

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 27, 2019, 5:23 pm

Another aspect of this is that we need to trade some prospects or we will end up having to leave them exposed anyway.

We have too many to roster over the next couple years.

It’s  at least a consideration at a trade deadline when quality starters are available.

While losing Quantrill or Morejon or even Urias might hurt in the long run.....we need a top starter and we may as well get something for them instead of running out of 40 man spots for them.

Obviously we could just release lesser prospects instead......but that doesn’t “add” a guy like Syndergaard.

On other words......we can’t keep them all.

So we may have to trade some we don’t want too so we can get other guys we really need.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 27, 2019, 6:07 pm

Quote from Commie on July 27, 2019, 5:18 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 27, 2019, 4:38 pm

Quote from Brian Connelly on July 27, 2019, 3:54 pm

Quote from fenn68 on July 27, 2019, 2:27 pm

We must have entered an alternate reality. The trade deadline has historically been the time when contenders pony up a premium to get key pieces for a pennant run.

Yet, in the above scenario, we have Toronto a non-contender, Mets a non-contender, and SD a non-contender all involved in a theoretical deal including two of the most sought after players available. Where are all the contenders? Don’t they see these guys the as worth a playoff run premium? Why are TOR and NYM not first pursuing premium returns? Is SD paying a premium (potentially) for someone others don’t deserve the premium even in a pennant race? Is this all mis-direction to get better offers from contenders for Stroman and Syndergaard?

All sounds suspect but worried (no matter who the Padres put in a deal) it will be an overpay given the lack of apparent strong competition for Syndergaard.

Ummm... doesn't the LACK of competition for him make it a better deal??!

Not as insane as it sounds; Stroman DOESN'T make any sense for Pads since only controlled next year.  Likely are trying to drum up interest in Thor b/c other teams know Pads with oodles of prospects are interested in him so interest may be muted as in "what's the point, Pads will throw in another prospect & beat us"... pure speculation.

Guys down on Thor but up on Garrett Richards make no sense.  15.5 - 18 MM for one year off TJ Surg for Richards vs 20-22 MM for 2+ years of Thor?   We clearly disagree on Thor's  value, but Pads can't roll out 2 guys off TJ surg + 4 rookie/1st/2nd year in MLB guys as a playoff/world series contending rotation.  It's ridiculous to "rely" on Gore to lead us to the promised land as an innings limited rookie at age 21.  You DO want to A) buy low, and B) trade for guys getting below market $, DON'T want to overpay vets coming off good seasons (Kinsler!)

Not if the Mets don’t have to trade him ... and they don’t. Since without significant improvement to the offense, improving the pitching although good is not going to get them to the contending mode.

Now taking a different tact .. a plus in adding Syndergaard (2 years) .... depending who is given up ... does potentially allow the Padres to move more ML ready arms for that offense. Some gambles (but all the moves are) ... if they lock into a 2020 SP staff of Richards (1 year replaced by Morejon in 2021), Syndergaard (2 years replaced by Patino in 2022), Lucchesi (4 years), Paddack (5 years), and Gore (6 years) as the core, then that opens up for trade (for offensive help) potentially Lauer, Lamet, L.Allen, Quantrill all legit prospects and ML ready. Next wave of SP is way off (and not yet considered even a 50 rating) so core 7 is key. A Morejon or Patino in the wings (bullpen or AA/AAA) make them ML ready if any of the first 5 have issues (at least one will).

For teams than need low cost, long control SP ... even Lauer, Lamet, Allen, and Quantrill should look good and bundle them with position players of limited future value to the Padres (but legit prospects) like Naylor, A.Allen, France, any combo of the OF and they may get that needed OF upgrade or two.

So a domino game that changes if the Syndergaard domino falls first.

 

Wonder if they could extend Thor?

Could but if he is a good as hoped .... it will be tough on the payroll to just cover his arbitration money with the current roster (and limiting new adds) ... then in 3 years with still having Myers, Machado, Hosmer, and some escalating arbs for Tatis, Paddack, Lucchesi, et al ... another $20-30MM is way out of range. Think the extensions will be aimed at Paddack and Tatis who will be super 2 in 2021. Gore hitting arbitration soon after. If Tatis, Paddack, and Gore are who we think they are ... their arbitration awards will be substantial.

More likely he goes FA and the Padres get a Comp Pick (think it is before the new CBA which should eliminate that rule) or if not a contender in 2021 becomes a trade deadline move to recoup a prospect or two.

Quote from fenn68 on July 27, 2019, 6:37 pm

Quote from David Nevin on July 27, 2019, 5:23 pm

Another aspect of this is that we need to trade some prospects or we will end up having to leave them exposed anyway.

We have too many to roster over the next couple years.

It’s  at least a consideration at a trade deadline when quality starters are available.

While losing Quantrill or Morejon or even Urias might hurt in the long run.....we need a top starter and we may as well get something for them instead of running out of 40 man spots for them.

Obviously we could just release lesser prospects instead......but that doesn’t “add” a guy like Syndergaard.

On other words......we can’t keep them all.

So we may have to trade some we don’t want too so we can get other guys we really need.

 

 

Well they will never expose the elite prospects, so not worried about that. Agree the next tier of very good prospects that may take up roster space are clear fodder for trading. Actually this winter, not seeing a big issue since the Padres are already adding the main prospects and still have some very marginal players to DFA. Maybe only 3-4 of the new top 30 are in play and none are as I recall are “50” ratings.

Trade top prospects to fill a real need ... yes if anyone could agree on the definition of a real need .. the quality (value) of the player to fill that need ... the quality (value) of the prospect(s) needed to get the player.

As it pertains to Syndergaard it is the 2 years control is just not enough to justify using elite prospects. Would do it for some MLers and “50” level prospects for the reasons in my other post to set up dealing other pitchers for OF upgrades.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 27, 2019, 6:55 pm

If Thor was a free agent,even with his less than stellar season,he would be getting a 5 yr/130 mil contract.

So how much is 2 years of that pitcher worth in prospects?

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 27, 2019, 7:44 pm

Quote from David Nevin on July 27, 2019, 6:55 pm

If Thor was a free agent,even with his less than stellar season,he would be getting a 5 yr/130 mil contract.

So how much is 2 years of that pitcher worth in prospects?

 

 

Apparently not all that much since recent reports have had three contenders that really need SP help for this year and next back out of negotiations because the Mets were demanding too much. MINN, LAD, HOU all have some top 50 prospects that they are not apparently willing to include ... so on to other options. Not sure that a team closer to 2nd last in the NL than a wild card slot has the the same need as them.

Padres could (and a decent chance will) out bid the others .... but at a much lower price than the Mets ask. Padres “second level” of L.Allen, Quantrill, types still may be more appealing to the Mets than what the “second level” prospects from the others .... value of a deep system.

Think (hope) Preller is savvy enough not to just accept the Mets’ demands, read the competition, and buy at the lowest price possible. End state get Syndergaard and keep the elite (for me that is Gore, Patino, Morejon ... and Urias is apparently not even in the discussion from the Padres side). Having said that ... other than Gore ... no idea who Preller sees as a no trade talent ... could be Quantrill and not Morejon. We will see.

Do think based on the way the Mets are reportedly committed to deal Syndergaard ... Padres will have the inside track. I will be happy or unhappy depending on the players going to the Mets and in 2 years ... no idea.

Quote from fenn68 on July 28, 2019, 7:08 am

Mets (tied with the Padres) seem a bit delusional since they are “committed” in dealing Syndergaard .... bounce back and forth on being “committed” to dealing Wheeler and potentially extending him ... and with that still want to contend in 2020 by taking the return for Syndergaard (and Wheeler) and replace them as SP plus add some additional ML help.

Apparently the see the return on Syndergaard (2 years, 4+ERA) and Wheeler (FA to be and coming off injury) can generate enough of a return to get the likes of Stroman (1 year, 2.96 ERA) and now Robbie Ray ... both pitching better ... PLUS get additional pieces for 2020 and the future.

That is a pretty ambitious goal ... maybe pushed by the ownership and the “new” GM needing to be (or seem to be) relevant in NY ... but they have (and will have) as many holes in their roster as the Padres. Not seeing were that strategy fixes 3B and their OF ... just shuttles the pitching staff (upgrade?). Certainly requires them to ask for a ton for Syndergaard and Wheeler and maybe why the “contenders” are moving off to other options such as Stroman, Minor, Ray. For “immediate” playoff help ... those others may be more desirable.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 28, 2019, 10:01 am

So what’s the chance AJ wants to trade for Thor to flip him?

So many teams want him.....as just an idea like to Houston for Tucker or Atl. For Pache/Waters?

Thor has more value to acquire guys at positions we need than anyone we have in the minors we are willing to trade.

Of course it all depends on being able to get Thor without having to give those same guys up anyway.

Just an idea.......I wouldn’t put it past Preller to consider everything.