Quote from fenn68 on December 19, 2018, 11:49 am

Clearly trading for either Cobb or Gray is a high risk gamble .... but so was dumping $15MM for one year of Garrett Richards (if they are lucky) .... trading for Hughes ... trading for Headley to get Mitchell. Not a lot of good outcomes but just examples of the risk taking they are willing to engage in. (note not really my favorite strategy).

Gray is the "safer" pick-up since he is $9MM/1 year and if a team is rolling the dice on his 2018 AWAY stats morphing into overall performance out of NYC you get a SP with a 3.17 ERA ... that is top shelf. Now it may depend more on what NYY want ... and how many other teams are bidding .... but would expect a higher price than most are thinking.

Cobb is a different kind of gamble with his 3 year contract ... higher risk. But he got that deal after some decent post TJ numbers with TB in 2017 so teams do like his stuff then if they are looking at his 2nd half performance in 2018 when he posted a 2.56 ERA (59.2 innings) they could conclude that he has made the full recovery now and the 1st half was just an one off period.

Pitching is in demand and even the legit shot of getting a quality SP can be worth the risk (probably more so for a current contender). $9MM or $14-14-15MM is just not that daunting if a teams expects the better performance.

The Padres are probably out due to the cost (in terms of prospects / players) BALT and NYY would demand (and get from someone).

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 19, 2018, 12:33 pm

In defense of Cobb he was hurt all of 2015 and 16' so he may just now be truly back to form and if you look at his

2nd half numbers last year it's extremely encouraging.

It's not like he was consistently bad all season last year.

I would like to have him but "only" if it makes sense based on the player/s going back to Balt.

I don't really care about the money.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 19, 2018, 3:11 pm

Quote from David Nevin on December 19, 2018, 12:33 pm

In defense of Cobb he was hurt all of 2015 and 16' so he may just now be truly back to form and if you look at his

2nd half numbers last year it's extremely encouraging.

It's not like he was consistently bad all season last year.

I would like to have him but "only" if it makes sense based on the player/s going back to Balt.

I don't really care about the money.

 

Alright FENN, Booster, David.   Kudos for pointing out that his 2nd 1/2 WAS much better last year... but boy... it was only 11 starts vs. 17 1st half = tiny sample size.  Missed starts end of season due to blister issues should be no big deal....

His contract is bonkers for what/who he is:   10 team no trade 2019-21 (presume he'd agree to go just about anywhere to get off the shipwrecked O's).  The deferred $ from last year O's gave him and the 4.5 MM x next 3 years deferred going forward is payable beginning in 2022 lasting until... get this ...2032!!   So while O's save a little $ "now", Cobb has a lifetime income stream!

I would not even enter into a conversation with the Orioles until as a starting point it was agreed they would pay all of the remaining deferral, b/c I don't want to extend my salary spreadsheet out another 10 years!  🙂

There is also a protection clause that if his IP in 2020 are below 130, ANOTHER 5.5 MM from 2021 salary gets deferred to... get this...2033-35!   Yes, well after many of us, including Alex Cobb, may be dead.   Safe to say Preller  not too worried about that potential dead $.

Even as a 9.5 / 9.5 / 10.5 (or "5") Cobb still is way more risky than Gray b/c 1) it will cost more to get him, and 2) committing 8-10% range of payroll in 'contending years' of 20-21 for an age 32-34 guy with all the young guys coming up.

IMO there is NO risk on Gray, b/c the 9 MM is contained to 2019 when not contending anyway.  POSSIBLE that he'll 1) be flipped at deadline for more than it cost in trade to get him, 2) that he'll get qualifying offer, 3a) that he takes it & we get him 1 yr @ 18 MM = he & G. Richards for 26-29 MM in 2020, 3b) that he likes pitching for rising Pads/Balsley & re-signs, 3c) signs elsewhere & we get draft pick/s.    If none of this happens, so what.  Cost of short term MLB assets & our #50 prospect or whatever doesn't affect future.  Last year's Stammen as a trade deadline rental this year would net 1 minor prospect.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 19, 2018, 3:13 pm

p.s.  if we do trade for Cobb, somebody start the "Alex Cobb deferred salary" thread & see if we can keep it alive for 15 years... 🙂

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 19, 2018, 3:22 pm

Relax......no one is suggesting we trade Tatis for him and pay him millions for 16 years.

Speaking for myself I’m suggesting he’s worth adding if Preller gets him for what makes sense.

I trust he knows his contract status.......

Quote from Booster SD on December 19, 2018, 6:27 pm

The fact that his salary is deferred IMO makes it even better. Do you think the Mets really care that they send Bonilla $1.1M every year? Its $1.8M easily covered by the TV contract and the BAMBAT sales money. He would arguably be our best pitcher this year and perhaps our 2nd best next year based on how Richards bounces back.

Quote from Booster SD on December 19, 2018, 8:37 pm

IIRC, we have talked about Michael Chavis before. Is there any reason that we shouldnt ponder him becoming our 3B? Reading on MLB.com they are saying he has a strong arm, and has worked on his defense to become what they call "acceptable" defensively. BOS needs inexpensive bullpen help because of the big luxury tax cap, and he is blocked by Devers.

Quote from fenn68 on December 20, 2018, 8:40 am

Quote from Booster SD on December 19, 2018, 8:37 pm

IIRC, we have talked about Michael Chavis before. Is there any reason that we shouldnt ponder him becoming our 3B? Reading on MLB.com they are saying he has a strong arm, and has worked on his defense to become what they call "acceptable" defensively. BOS needs inexpensive bullpen help because of the big luxury tax cap, and he is blocked by Devers.

First of all Chavis (23) has only had 33 AB above AA ... so not at all ready for the ML. "acceptable" is code for if the hits enough a team could live with his bad defense (see Andujar, Franco, Devers). Problem with Chavis is that he has the power but his hit skills are below average making the projection of being an adequate 3B not all that great.

Rather than give up anything for Chavis (could use that trade chip for other needs) .... I am OK with finding out if the two main in-house prospects can fill the future 3B role (also not likely for 2019):

1. Potts (20, primarily in A+ last season): projected as a better hitter, runner, and defensively while still having plus power and a good arm. Younger and showing a trend of struggling at the new levels to start and finishing that level strong demonstrates his ability to develop. AA this season.

2. France (24, primarily in AA last season): the real wild card of this discussion .... 34th round pick with outstanding hitting skills in college was a surprise he was drafted so low (2015) ..... never a top 30 Padre prospect yet kept hitting (without power) as he progressed up the system .... 2018 power showed up while maintaining the strong hitting skill. Not strong defensively. Padres thought enough of him to add to the 40 man (maybe a big part was just need although the cleared Villanueva / Spangenberg to make room). AAA this season.

I would still go with a stop gap 2019 (baring some major add like Senzel / Machado) such as Moose or Tulo and see if France and Potts continue to progress as potential for the future.

Unfortunately, I am getting this pessimistic feeling that the Padres end up with Franco ... very bad defense but some ML offensive success (at least in 2018). IF Machado signs with PHIL Franco is probably available on the cheap. If they don't ... rumors have them going after Moose for 3B and still Franco is available on the cheap. I guess the question becomes what is "on the cheap" mean in talent haven to be given to PHIL? If truly assets that have little long term value for the Padres ... and they do need offense and a 3B ... maybe worth the deal and if Franco is unproductive ... just non-tender / DFA / trade him when / if France or Potts is ready.

Quote from Booster SD on December 20, 2018, 8:51 am

I guess that we have to give credit to Preller. Even though it seems we have some money to spend and a lot of prospects in the trade cash register, it seems that he is not doing anything crazy just to make moves. I guess we just buckle in and have a rough 1st half, (as typical for us Pads fans) and look forward to after the ASG when we start to see Tatis and the others sprinkle in from AAA.

Man....the left side of the infield is potentially brutal at best at this time with France, Garcia, Vosler, and Guerra. Over/under of the batting average for the 3B/SS combo to start the season?..... .175?