Quote from fenn68 on December 19, 2018, 6:18 am

Pirela ... good hitter ... no. Pirela the best of the Padre INF candidates NOW ... maybe. Consider their 2 year w/RC+:

Pirela (817 PA) ... 95

Kinsler (1147 PA) ... 90

Garcia (498 PA) ... 85

Urias (53 PA) ... 68

Guerra (23 PA) ... 23

France (---) .... ---  (only 110 PA in AAA)

That is not good to stock a minimum of 4 ML players. Sure there is the IF, COULD, SHOULD projections but other than Kinsler (whose defense elevates him way above the others) getting 2 of the others to play like ML players is a long shot ... longer if they dump Pirela. Just a reason to hold on to Pirela UNTIL they come up with some ML quality INF. Tatis will be a mid/late season call-up.

 

Quote from Booster SD on December 19, 2018, 6:31 am

How about we clear up one roster spot and IMO strengthen the SP and send Richard(ground ball pitcher) and Renfroe to BAL for Cobb. We can add a mid level prospect to sweeten the BAL if needed. BAL still has a SP that should play OK in BAL in Richard and cheap, a LF/DH that will mash in that park and is cheap, and our system can give them a mid level prospect that will be high end in their system. We clear a spot for Myers in LF and the spot for Kinsler on the 40 man and still have Pirela that could be our starting 3B at this point.

Quote from fenn68 on December 19, 2018, 8:17 am

Quote from Booster SD on December 19, 2018, 6:31 am

How about we clear up one roster spot and IMO strengthen the SP and send Richard(ground ball pitcher) and Renfroe to BAL for Cobb. We can add a mid level prospect to sweeten the BAL if needed. BAL still has a SP that should play OK in BAL in Richard and cheap, a LF/DH that will mash in that park and is cheap, and our system can give them a mid level prospect that will be high end in their system. We clear a spot for Myers in LF and the spot for Kinsler on the 40 man and still have Pirela that could be our starting 3B at this point.

I would do that in a second if I was Preller. More appealing to Baltimore may be Renfroe (5 years control) and Nix (6 years control) ... assuming they like Renfroe. Baltimore is rebuilding (for at least 5 years) and probably would like to shed Cobb's contract (3 years $43MM at age 31) so a deal is logical. Maybe a buyer's choice of Nix, Perdomo, Diaz, Kennedy, Mitchell. Padres get a potential top flight SP who could be flipped in a year or two as the Padres' prospects arrive.

Do Cobb AND Gray (NYY: 1 year $9MM) and potentially a very decent 2019 SP staff with Cobb - Gray - Strahm (L) - Lucchesi (L) - Lauer (L).

Quote from fenn68 on December 19, 2018, 8:35 am

I have read that the Padres really like Potts' potential for 3B ... but since he is just out of A+ high risk of future development not happening we may have an optimistic view of 2021 arrival (then a break-in period).

They added France to the 40 man .... but just out of AA and was never considered a high potential prospect (see any Top 30 list since he was signed). Yes, he has shown some significant development in the minors, so interesting IF has put it together ... still needs to prove his bat in AAA so a year out at best.

Any views on the potential of both these prospects?

Makes a difference on how they pursue a 2019 3B. Also have to consider the Padres wanting to contend in 2020-21 and the chance either of the two could be dealt (or so could the 2019 add).

I am beginning to hope that Preller can convince Tulo to sign with the Padres for 3B (he is apparently willing to play 3B) ... fills a big short run need and buys time with Potts / France ... low cost at $500K ... IF he still can play a great trade deadline trade chip. Tulo wants to play everyday at one position ... most of the other teams interested in him can't give him that assurance ... seems a great match.

Quote from Booster SD on December 19, 2018, 9:07 am

I agree that we should be the logical spot since we have an opening at both SS and 3B to start the season. SD can give him a chance to show that he can still handle SS (which is probably his preference). And then if he cant, in SD he can still slide to 3B. If he can handle SS, then he becomes a good flip candidate when Tatis is ready.

Im still of the thought that we should start Urias in AAA as well. More control, make sure he is healthy, and let him get familiar with Tatis. Go sign Moose and Tulo, and start the season with an INF of Moose, Tulo, Kinsler, and Hosmer. Then you can let Tatis, Urias, Mejia, and Cordero have the start of the season in AAA and really mimic what the NYY did with Jeter and that core and they all came up about the same time after learning to play as a group in the minors. Then depending on how the vets are doing, they can be flipped, become back ups, or released.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 19, 2018, 9:37 am

Quote from Booster SD on December 19, 2018, 6:31 am

How about we clear up one roster spot and IMO strengthen the SP and send Richard(ground ball pitcher) and Renfroe to BAL for Cobb. We can add a mid level prospect to sweeten the BAL if needed. BAL still has a SP that should play OK in BAL in Richard and cheap, a LF/DH that will mash in that park and is cheap, and our system can give them a mid level prospect that will be high end in their system. We clear a spot for Myers in LF and the spot for Kinsler on the 40 man and still have Pirela that could be our starting 3B at this point.

It would open up the roster, but  this is exactly the type of trade I feel Pads should NOT make...

Cobb gets 14/14/15 MM with 4-5MM deferred EACH of those years.  Lowers the AAV, but someone pays him dead $ forever.   Stats say simply not the same guy since TJ.  2 year averages:   WHIP about 1.30 & BB/9 about 2.4/9 both fine, but K/9 down to 6.2/9 from >8/9 pre-injury with Rays.

I just don't see the value of giving up ANY trade assets, let alone Renfroe for a guy like this who takes up a big chunk of payroll & looks like an OK #4 SP... we already have too many of those guys who are 4, 6, 8 years younger.  It blocks one of those guys from getting starts with no upside.  Better off spending $ on that scale annually for Kikuchi (sp?).

Clay Richard back is logical but downright evil of Pads to trade him there of all places.  And O's would want young SP prospects back I'm assuming... just don't see the point.   Even if O's eat all the deferred $ to me this deal is a guarantee of mediocrity. Hard pass.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 19, 2018, 10:10 am

Quote from fenn68 on December 19, 2018, 8:17 am

Quote from Booster SD on December 19, 2018, 6:31 am

How about we clear up one roster spot and IMO strengthen the SP and send Richard(ground ball pitcher) and Renfroe to BAL for Cobb. We can add a mid level prospect to sweeten the BAL if needed. BAL still has a SP that should play OK in BAL in Richard and cheap, a LF/DH that will mash in that park and is cheap, and our system can give them a mid level prospect that will be high end in their system. We clear a spot for Myers in LF and the spot for Kinsler on the 40 man and still have Pirela that could be our starting 3B at this point.

I would do that in a second if I was Preller. More appealing to Baltimore may be Renfroe (5 years control) and Nix (6 years control) ... assuming they like Renfroe. Baltimore is rebuilding (for at least 5 years) and probably would like to shed Cobb's contract (3 years $43MM at age 31) so a deal is logical. Maybe a buyer's choice of Nix, Perdomo, Diaz, Kennedy, Mitchell. Padres get a potential top flight SP who could be flipped in a year or two as the Padres' prospects arrive.

Do Cobb AND Gray (NYY: 1 year $9MM) and potentially a very decent 2019 SP staff with Cobb - Gray - Strahm (L) - Lucchesi (L) - Lauer (L).

This is what O's would want, but is utterly insane for Pads.  LOOK at Cobb's stats.  Cobb was a "top flight SP" 5 YEARS AGO!

How can a team possibly come out ahead in $ or WAR trading 11 years of cheap control of Renfroe (2.4 WAR last yr) & Nix (TBD; maybe boom/bust) for 3 years of expensive control of Cobb?  His WAR last year was 1.1  His career is 12 WAR including the good early years pre-2015 when he was probably 3 WAR/yr.  Pads should not spend significant $ AND assets on a SP like this

Sonny Gray deal absolutely makes sense.  How about Stammen + Erlin + maybe a low level prospect (not top 30)?  Erlin in 6th starter/ swingman role & has an option.  Have him next year as a band aid for CC retiring.  Yanks bullpen so deep Stammen would be 6th inning, but still > value to them than Gray.  But Yankees so deep all around might be looking for just best possible prospect/s to rebuild depleted farm.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 19, 2018, 10:22 am

Re:  " Keep Pirela" discussion...  valid idea.  Think Pads do really like him &  whether true or not I perceive him as a good PH off bench.  Great attitude, just bad defense & baserunning.  DOES have an option left which is why he will get claimed if DFA...

Overriding point:  I mark guys with ** after season as WILL be DFA, and * as possible DFA / on bubble.  Asuaje was the last "**" guy, and he quickly got claimed on Waivers.  ALL of  * guys (Pirela, Torrens, Guerra, Kennedy) may have limited value, but they all have value, and would all get claimed I believe.

Preller may see all of 7 new roster adds having more value than these 4 guys, but that's debateable.   No one here "worth" making multiple player trade out just to retain, but opening up roster would be helpful since still looking to add to 25 (&40) man.

Quote from Booster SD on December 19, 2018, 10:24 am

And respectfully I think you are overpaying for 1 year of Gray. I would give up either Stammen or Erlin, but not both and then a low level prospect.

I think you are underestimating what getting out of BAL and the AL East would do for Cobb. In my original thought, and IMO the best outcome for Cobb would be Myers and prospect for Cobb. Even if we included some money to offset the difference between Cobb and Myers. Either way you slice it, Cobb does better in SD with Petco and Balsley and Myers or Renfroe does extremely well in BAL, both defensively and offensively, the small ball parks of the AL East.

However, as Fenn points out BAL is saddled with the anchor contract of Davis, and they probably want young cheap players. So I think I still pull the trigger on a Renfroe/Nix/MiL mid level prospect for Cobb. Im sure we will just agree to disagree on this trade. 🙂