Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2021, 10:53 am

Side on Guerra holding a RP slot. Everyone loves his potential ... lauded for great stuff ... but ineffective in two seasons ... not surprising given his recent conversion to pitching.

ST will be critical in his battle with Altavilla and Williams (I put Stammen in an entire different category). All three are basically FB/Slider pitchers .. Guerra has the top velocity. Hard to gage the movement component and deception. Did see that while veterans Altavilla and Williams are closer to a 50/50 mix, Guerra is closer to a 75% FB pitcher. Not sure why. IF Guerra's slider is plus (as some have suggested), then utilizing it more (assuming command is there), might just vault him past the others.

We will see how Rothchild works with him ... but with RP things can happen fast ... so if two pitches are plus to start with ... then pitch mix and command vaults him to much higher levels. Maybe ... could be ... we can hope.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 18, 2021, 11:15 am

I assume Guerra would not make it through waivers?

If we were to try would it be better to try now(before ST) or during ST?

Or do we just have to wait and see how he performs during the Spring?

If he pitches well you keep him and if he pitches poorly there's a better chance he goes unclaimed.

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 18, 2021, 11:18 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2021, 10:12 am

Interesting piece on Tanaka today on MLBTR. Thinking is that he is seeking $15MM+ on a 1 year deal but also strongly considering returning to Japan (a la Sugano) where he could get a favorable deal. Very unlikely the NYY (after signing Kluber) is still in.

In a sense, a 1 year deal with Tanaka makes sense for the Padres with Clevinger returning in 2022 and the wave of prospects that should be ready for the ML. Not sure about the $15MM+.

=====

 

Not my $, but don't see Pads paying 1/15.   Could stretch a 1 yr deal over 2 with a significant buyout against a big salary like 1/12 + 4 vs. 20 or something like that (16 MM AAV for 1 or 2 yrs), but Tanaka may not agree to that.  From Pads' POV, it would be like paying Tanaka 12 MM, then Clevinger next year 10.5 MM (his 6.5 +4 MM buyout to Tanaka).

Obviously Pads improve by signing him, but helps us too if he chooses to return to Japan.

Quote from Ben Davey on January 18, 2021, 11:19 am

The fact that the Padres still have Guerra is reason to believe that he is making progress.  I think we have all seen him be unhittable, but the location and overthrowing are what we see a lot from the AZL guys.  (sometimes its better to throw 96 with more movement than 101 thats straight).  I wouldnt be surprised if Guerra is a 8th/9th inning pitcher in 2022, I also wouldnt be surprised if Guerra is stuck in some teams Triple-A affiliate never reaching the majors again.

You mention that Williams and Alt are similar pitchers to Guera, its funny, Williams actually had that breakthrough we are hoping Guerra has.  Prior to getting destroyed by the Padres and Wil Myers, Williams had seven straight scoreless appearances (7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 11 K including striking out 5 Dodgers in 2.1 scoreless).  He had a 3.00 ERA going into that Padre game and was 6-6 in saves.  That looks pretty impressive for the 13th man in a bullpen.

Altavilla was also dominant down the stretch with a 3.12 ERA and 10+ K/9,  Again, it might be cause for concern if this was our closer, but he would literally be the mop up guy with a 3 ERA.  Which is a decent reason not to spend big money on Rosenthal.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 18, 2021, 11:31 am

Quote from Ben Davey on January 18, 2021, 11:19 am

The fact that the Padres still have Guerra is reason to believe that he is making progress.  I think we have all seen him be unhittable, but the location and overthrowing are what we see a lot from the AZL guys.  (sometimes its better to throw 96 with more movement than 101 thats straight).  I wouldnt be surprised if Guerra is a 8th/9th inning pitcher in 2022, I also wouldnt be surprised if Guerra is stuck in some teams Triple-A affiliate never reaching the majors again.

You mention that Williams and Alt are similar pitchers to Guera, its funny, Williams actually had that breakthrough we are hoping Guerra has.  Prior to getting destroyed by the Padres and Wil Myers, Williams had seven straight scoreless appearances (7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 11 K including striking out 5 Dodgers in 2.1 scoreless).  He had a 3.00 ERA going into that Padre game and was 6-6 in saves.  That looks pretty impressive for the 13th man in a bullpen.

Altavilla was also dominant down the stretch with a 3.12 ERA and 10+ K/9,  Again, it might be cause for concern if this was our closer, but he would literally be the mop up guy with a 3 ERA.  Which is a decent reason not to spend big money on Rosenthal.

I agree that these 3 are all "better" than average Padres fan thinks.  Altavilla definitely looked like a late inning guy late in the season.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 18, 2021, 11:46 am

The POTENTIAL in the pen is why I think it's either one (only) of Rosenthal or Yates  OR No RP addition at all.

Every RP but Stammen (re-signed), Strahm, & IL all year Jose Castillo & Wingenter, & "still prospects trying to make it" Guerra & Bednar was added either last offseason or trade deadline:  Pom, Pagan, A. Adams, Tim Hill, Altavilla, & T. Williams.  6 guys.  75% of a MLB pen.

It's illogical with a full 40-man roster to remove any of these guys to add another RP UNLESS they are obviously better quality.

The average the last 2 years is 2 MLB Bullpen arms ending up on IL.  In 2019 when Castillo went down early we had to $ overpay for marginally effective vets who also got injured (Aaron Loup, Adam Warren).  Last year forced to trade for Tim Hill when Castillo went down again.   12 guys into ST for 8 spots isn't overkill; it's smart planning.  Look for O.D. roster to maybe have 9 in pen, only 4 position players, with only 1 off day first 24 games.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 18, 2021, 11:53 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2021, 10:53 am

Side on Guerra holding a RP slot. Everyone loves his potential ... lauded for great stuff ... but ineffective in two seasons ... not surprising given his recent conversion to pitching.

ST will be critical in his battle with Altavilla and Williams (I put Stammen in an entire different category). All three are basically FB/Slider pitchers .. Guerra has the top velocity. Hard to gage the movement component and deception. Did see that while veterans Altavilla and Williams are closer to a 50/50 mix, Guerra is closer to a 75% FB pitcher. Not sure why. IF Guerra's slider is plus (as some have suggested), then utilizing it more (assuming command is there), might just vault him past the others.

We will see how Rothchild works with him ... but with RP things can happen fast ... so if two pitches are plus to start with ... then pitch mix and command vaults him to much higher levels. Maybe ... could be ... we can hope.

The overriding question on Guerra is how fast can he get to a point where he's at least not hurting team.  Can pitch low leverage innings out of pen, but if hurts a WS contending team there, he may just be a better fit developing on a team where his struggles aren't magnified because the losses don't matter.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 18, 2021, 12:22 pm

Didn't we sign a reliever a year ago with the same name as another RP who looks just like him but is not related?

Same name and everything right?

Big red headed guy.

Who is he again ?

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2021, 12:54 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 18, 2021, 12:22 pm

Didn't we sign a reliever a year ago with the same name as another RP who looks just like him but is not related?

Same name and everything right?

Big red headed guy.

Who is he again ?

 

Brady Feigl.