Quote from Randy Manese on January 17, 2021, 11:38 am

Paxton would probably be a better value than Tanaka if we could get him at around 13M.  On the other hand, I  like what I saw in Rosenthal last year and having him at the top of the bullpen makes everyone better in the pen.  So my vote goes to Rosenthal irrespective of whether Paxton or Tanaka are signable.

Quote from fenn68 on January 17, 2021, 11:40 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 17, 2021, 10:12 am

If the cost was the same who would you rather have if we could only have one?’

Profar-Bench depth

Rosenthal-Closer

Tanaka-Rotation depth

 

For me it would be Rosenthal.

Putting him in as Closer pushes everyone else down a notch and makes each inning better in close games.

Pomeranz and Pagan become LH/RH setup guys or Closer in case of over use/injury instead of depended on the close games.

I also think we could find another “low cost” OF and a veteran 1 year Starter closer to the start of the season much easier than we could fund a quality Closer.

Lastly.....Rosenthal absolutely loved his short time in SD,I’d love to have him around for a few more years in the community/clubhouse.

Who would you choose and why?

 

 

 

Tanaka. Sets up a SP rotation of Darvish, Snell, Lamet, Tanaka, and Paddack. The “prospects” (Gore, Morejon, Weathers, Baez) get development time in the minors plus innings build up. Also, effectively extending their control periods. Lucchesi is either in the minors or the “swing man” in the pen for spot starts / long relief ... useful in either role.

At some point one (or more) of the SP will get injured needing replacement. If that is down the stretch (in the playoffs) .... rather have Tanaka as an option for the playoff start than Lucchesi or a prospect (might be different at the end of the year but not now).

I see “making the playoffs” a high probability .... so “succeeding in the playoffs” what needs to be a roster priority.

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Would not object to Rosenthal and bumping down the others .... but think a better chance of getting decent RP support in 2021 for an “unknown” at the end of the pen with Pomeranz / Pagan duo closers.

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Quote from fenn68 on January 17, 2021, 11:47 am

Quote from Randy Manese on January 17, 2021, 11:38 am

Paxton would probably be a better value than Tanaka if we could get him at around 13M.  On the other hand, I  like what I saw in Rosenthal last year and having him at the top of the bullpen makes everyone better in the pen.  So my vote goes to Rosenthal irrespective of whether Paxton or Tanaka are signable.

The Paxton issue is the confidence he would stay healthy ... always in issue with him.

So, Paxton better upside if healthy but high risk. Tanaka a “steady” #3 with lower risk and should give a team innings.

No idea the “ask” on either one ... just not a lot of talk on either one so far.

Quote from WindsorUK on January 17, 2021, 1:58 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 17, 2021, 10:12 am

If the cost was the same who would you rather have if we could only have one?’

Profar-Bench depth

Rosenthal-Closer

Tanaka-Rotation depth

 

For me it would be Rosenthal.

Putting him in as Closer pushes everyone else down a notch and makes each inning better in close games.

Pomeranz and Pagan become LH/RH setup guys or Closer in case of over use/injury instead of depended on the close games.

I also think we could find another “low cost” OF and a veteran 1 year Starter closer to the start of the season much easier than we could fund a quality Closer.

Lastly.....Rosenthal absolutely loved his short time in SD,I’d love to have him around for a few more years in the community/clubhouse.

Who would you choose and why?

 

 

 

Good question Mr. P!

I'm taking Profar, all day long.

Profar can plug in just about anywhere on the field, extremely athletic, and really seemed to gel with everyone last year.

At some point, one of our everyday players will miss time, and it would be great if we had a plug and play guy( I'm happy with Kim as a super-sub)

At some point we need to see if one of the young guns is ready ( Baez, Gore, Morejon, Weathers, etc.) We've got enough front line pitching.....for now.

As for closer, Pomeranz and Pagan have done it before. And who knows, maybe one of the other guys( Adams, Altavilla, Williams, Guerra, Wingenter) will step up.

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2021, 6:26 am

An interesting wrinkle in the signing of LeMahieu .... might impact future contract structures for other players.

1. LeMahieu wanted a $90MM contract (4 years)

2. NYY wanted to keep under the luxury tax level (and maybe stretch cash flow).

so they agree on LeMahieu’s $90MM but not on a 4 year but a 6 year deal. Same money but a much lower AAV for luxury tax purposes. Note this is a 6 year contract not just deferred payments.

Cash flow will be interesting but a good chance LeMahieu (and the Yankees) have an understanding he will not play in years 5 and 6. Interesting potential “gaming” of the luxury tax system ... wonder if the league has an issue with this?

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 18, 2021, 9:50 am

"$ being equal" I'd take Tanaka.  Think he & Rosenthal are in ballpark of each other $ wise, but Profar is less.

Rosenthal was dominant last year.  Could definitely argue he would be more impactful.  I hope we sign him (or come in last minute on Yates), but doubt we do.  Buying high on a pretty big injury risk.

Profar's versatility is awesome, but think combo of Kim/Jake will be a more reliable long term Infield offense/defense upgrade, though remains to be seen if either can handle OF at all.

But I like Tanaka > all the SP's remaining (even Sonny Gray).  Best control, and that HR/9 rate would go way down in Petco vs. Yankee stadium.  Did like Kluber > Tanaka.  Hard to see how Pads afford him & how he "fits" with 2 other SP's on 3 year deals.... but what if Lamet (eventually) got moved to the pen!!!

Late in year I saw National broadcast of us/LAD.  National (i.e. LAD focused) announcers spent the ENTIRE game calling Lamet "a closer disguised as a SP"... but there's a lot of truth to it.  Lamet almost (TBD) blew his elbow out a 2nd time in a 60-game season throwing WAY too many sliders due to combo of short sprint season & no third pitch.  Might the best way to maximize his value and keep him healthy be to move him to pen at some point in season?  Lamet could clearly go > 1 IP in pen, and obvious potential to be dominant closer.  Food for thought...

 

Quote from Ben Davey on January 18, 2021, 10:03 am

If the Padres had unlimited resources then signing Tanaka sounds great.  The problem is if you think the Padres only have enough $ for one more player, starting pitching is not where I would want to upgrade.

Right now our #4 and 5 starters are Paddack and Morejon.  Morejon has had a ceiling of a #2 and having him at #5 is amazing.  Yes there were questions with how deep he can go, but its hard to deny that there were times he looked just as dominant as Lamet.  Is it an easy argument to make that Morejon could have a better season than Tanaka?  Yes (not saying it will happen but it wouldnt be too surprising)

If one of them get injured you still have a former top 50 prospect (in Baez), the #1 pitching prospect in baseball (Gore), the former opening day starter (Luchessi) plus guys like Nix and Avila who have MLB pitching experience, and thats without the normal minor league vet signing that happens in a few weeks.

To me, the biggest need is that RHB that can produce against the tough lefties in the division.  The bullpen was already ranked by MLB.com as the 3rd best in all of baseball.  I guess if you had to chose one, is Profar better than the 26th man on the team (O'Grady/Campy) or would Rosenthal be a bigger upgrade over someone like Stammen/Altavilla?

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2021, 10:12 am

Interesting piece on Tanaka today on MLBTR. Thinking is that he is seeking $15MM+ on a 1 year deal but also strongly considering returning to Japan (a la Sugano) where he could get a favorable deal. Very unlikely the NYY (after signing Kluber) is still in.

In a sense, a 1 year deal with Tanaka makes sense for the Padres with Clevinger returning in 2022 and the wave of prospects that should be ready for the ML. Not sure about the $15MM+.

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Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2021, 10:40 am

From a different perspective ... would it be wise if the Padres only have money for one "significant" add, to just wait until the NL DH is decided? DH would bias me toward a stronger position player add over a pitcher considering the Padres really have zip to count on after the front line players.

Alternatively, given the front line players .... position, SP, RP ... are all quality (it appears), would it make sense to use any remaining dollars to get mid-range upgrades for all three roles. Remember that they actually still do need that  5th bench player ... and not thrilled with Mateo or O'Grady as #3 and #4 off the bench.

I can go with RHRP of Pagan, Johnson, and Adams .... but for the last two slots it is a stretch to see ML quality in Stammen, Altavilla, Williams, or Guerra for 2021. Then again, RP surprises occur every year .... so Wilson? Thompson? PTNL? come out of the darkness to shine.

SP needs a proven innings eater who goes out for all his starts. Love the upside of all the prospects but none have the innings under the belt produce for a full season ... and actually still "potential" bound and questionable for a 2021 playoff contender. If one blossoms in ST ... great .. and grabs the role ... if not ???