Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2021, 1:39 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 18, 2021, 11:15 am

I assume Guerra would not make it through waivers?

If we were to try would it be better to try now(before ST) or during ST?

Or do we just have to wait and see how he performs during the Spring?

If he pitches well you keep him and if he pitches poorly there's a better chance he goes unclaimed.

 

 

A lot of teams are looking for RP candidates (most have worse options on their rosters or have open slots) ... so would expect any of Guerra, Williams, Altavilla would get claimed if put on waivers now ... all are low cost, so a great look and see candidate.

Even Stammen might get claimed but more likely clears waivers ... signs with another team and the Padres still pay the contract.

Four weeks until ST ... so IF the Padres can hold off adding anyone to the 40 until then, they can avoid having to make a waiver move on the RP until the end of ST since in ST they can put Clevinger / Wingenter on the 60 day IL.

I really can't make a call that any one of the three is a clear better option for 2021 ... all seem to have "stuff" and Altavilla / Williams have had short burst of success (but offset by some real control issues). Padres must have seen the same potential to get Altavilla included in the Nola deal and separately dealing for Williams. Keeping all three though ST may be needed to settle on the survivor(s). Plus, some level of protection against injuries in the pen.

Note: if the rules hold ... teams can only keep 13 pitchers on the 26 man roster ... and with an intense slate of games in April ... 5 starters probable leaving only 8 RP. IF everybody is healthy ... and since I really don't think they will put Stammen on waivers ... really looking at losing two or the three at the end of ST. The only wiggle room to hold on to two is that Hill has an option ... he could be optioned ... go down to two LHRP (Pomeranz / Strahm).

Should be the most interesting ST battle.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 18, 2021, 1:40 pm

The reason I thought of him is he had a very good year in 2019 and is 30 years old....I'm sure he would/could be a potential call up during the Season if injuries occur to the Pen.

Not on the 40 man of course......but.

 

Quote from Ben Davey on January 18, 2021, 3:23 pm

Padres acquire former Foothiller (greatest high school)Joe Musgrove from the Pirates.  The Pirates ace slots in as the Padres #4 starter haha

It looks like Musgrove for Head and Omar Cruz

 

Edit.  Looks like the full return is Head, Cruz, Lucchesi, Drake Fellows and David Bednar.

From what I saw of Cruz I liked him but was far away from the majors, Head is the only top prospect we gave up, and Joey Fuego and Bednar didnt have a spot on the team

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 18, 2021, 4:08 pm

Ok I like Musgrove but someone explain how he’s “Head/Cruz/Bednar” better than Lucchesi.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2021, 4:08 pm

Well the Padres are really going for it in 2021-22. They gave up a lot of potential for 2 years of Musgrove (currently at $4.45MM). Head though is the only real upside guy in my view.

If Musgrove is the pitcher he was last season down the stretch a steal for the Padres and if he is just his career history ... still OK for the upside gamble for an innings eater that should not be worse than a 4.00 ERA.

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This should lock all the prospect SP to minor league duty for further development ... that is good. Actually gives them maybe 2 years of additional development since all the 2021 SP are slated to return in 2022 and Clevinger returns.

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Opens a roster spot with + Musgrove and - Lucchesi and Bednar. Added $5MMish .... does that leave money for another add (RP/bench player)?

If the Padres were “considering” Tanaka or Sugano over $10MM/yr .... should be some more room.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 18, 2021, 4:10 pm

I hate it when we give up top prospects HOWEVER Musgrove is much more than a #3 starter.  Before the acquisition of Snell and Darvish, thought Musgrove should be a prime target.  Glad we got him but will miss seeing the development of Head and Cruz.  Realistically, Hassell is already ahead of Head and if Abrams shifts to the OF, Head has no starting role.  Cruz is one of many pitchers Padres have in their system, so his loss will be felt but is replaceable.  Musgrove has one more year of being arbitration eligible before his FA year in 2023.

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2021, 4:15 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 18, 2021, 4:08 pm

Ok I like Musgrove but someone explain how he’s “Head/Cruz/Bednar” better than Lucchesi.

 

Think a big factor is going for it in 2021-22 where realistically only Lucchesi of the trade players would be a factor. Then based on the the Padres total avoidance of Lucchesi last season ... they must just not have any faith in him going forward.

Now Musgrove had a very compelling final run in 2020 (2nd half about a 2.16 ERA) ... and always had upside potential. So, maybe they see that potential and end of 2020 lasting into 2021. Probably a fair gamble given the situation.

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2021, 4:30 pm

Only pitched 39.2 innings last year (so some small sample size risk) but for pitchers with > 30 innings Musgrove ranked #6 with 12.48 K/9. (Note earlier heard that the Padres liked high K pitchers for success in playoff situations).

Additionally, he ranked #16 (tied with Sonny Gray) for xFIP for the real stat types out there.

If it has finally all come together for Musgrove ... Padres have a big winner here.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 18, 2021, 4:38 pm

Read the article on the Padres website on Musgrove’s pitches ... upside. For the analytical of you ... he has to tools to be dominate (if used right).

Will Rothschild get him into the right pitch mix / sequence and help improve his FB quality?