Quote from WindsorUK on October 13, 2020, 8:46 pm

Did Tommy Pham get stabbed?

Announcers of Rays-Stros game wishing him a fast recovery?

Quote from 3fingersplit on October 13, 2020, 11:17 pm

Pham was at Pacers and went outside to his car and some sort of beef occurred and he was stabbed in the back....literally

Nothing too serious and should recover in however long it takes a stab wound to heal.......it's too bad nobody told him that Pacers has always been a knife and gun "Gentlemans" club in the Midway district.......locals know it as a strip joint.

Quote from MrPadre19 on October 14, 2020, 7:38 am

I'm going to bring this up again as I do almost every year because every year,especially next year,I believe it is a wise course of action.

I would like to see the Padres go to a 6 man rotation.

Or at least a modified 6 man.

With Clevinger and Lamets' injuries and past injury history.

With young Starters like Morejon,Gore,Patino it just makes sense.

If it helps get Clev. and Lamet through a complete season including the Playoffs it needs to be looked at.

Yes I know the disadvantages...but those disadvantages don't outweigh the stress on these arms IMO.

Clevinger/Lamet/Davies/Paddack/Morejon/Patino/Weathers.....or go and sign another in free agency..

Instead of a full fledge bullpen day piggyback Morejon and Patino maybe?

If they get you 6-7 innings it sure beats using 5-6 bullpen arms.

Unless we are completely certain Lamet and Clevinger will pitch the entire 2021 season?

 

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 14, 2020, 8:37 am

Mr P, with the exact combo of: the covid shortened 60 game season, no minors in 2020, possible DH in NL, and the exact SP we've got, I'm in agreement with you--at least for 2020.   So I have argued for it as well.  But I will say this.  IF you go to a 6-man rotation, the STANDARD outing goal for the SP needs to be 6-7 IP every game, not 4.2 or 5.1   Maybe not at the start of the season, but you have to get there quickly, b/c down a bullpen arm.  So we can't have a repeat of 2020 where all the young guys are only going 2-4 IP as "SP".  Also, the big reason we may NOT do this is the inflexibility of our bullpen; so many guys "can't be optioned", and for a 6-man rotation to work, there has to be a lot of flexibility with at least the last guy in the pen.

The main modified you can do is have the #1  go every 5th day to get max starts out of him.  He makes 32 starts, #2-6 make 26.  If we had Trevor Bauer or Gerritt Cole, I would do this.  But with both Lamet & Clev winding up with elbow issues, is it wise to push for your best guy to hit his THEORETICAL max # of starts?  You could have them share #1 duties = 29 starts each for them, 26 each #3-6.  Or do you strategically (think about the playoff format & our realistic chance of winning division over LAD) just have every guy on the the same schedule with an extra day of rest?   26 x avg 6 IP/game = 156 IP heading into playoffs.

The beauty of a true 6-man rotation is that the next night's SP is always sitting there as the long man if needed, but that does bump the rest of the rotation up to "normal rest" for one time through.   The benefit of every SP making every start on extra rest I think is highly under-rated.  It seems fairly easy to statistically look at how guys do with the extra rest.

Not many teams ever have had 3-4 Top 100 MLB SP prospects ALL near/MLB ready.  I'd rather see these (when deemed "ready") these guys go every 6th day then rely on the 7th, 8th, 9th "best" guy in our bullpen night in, night out.

Quote from fenn68 on October 14, 2020, 9:56 am

Think the assumption that all the starters will go deeper into games (6-7 innings) is wishful thinking. Consider the best teams in MLB for innings / start are Cleveland (5.8) and Cubs (5.4). They are the "best" but the innings are controlled to reflect the pitch counts that push 100 quickly these days and the diminishment of effectiveness the third time through the line-up. The consensus seems to be to have starters go "all out" for two turns of the line-up and then give the opponent an entire different looks for the third time ... combo yielding a better result.

Padres were #15 at 4.8 but Davies (5.8) and Lamet (5.8) were among MLB better, Clevinger (5.2) and even Paddack (4.9) were representative. Not sure that pushing them for an "extra inning" and probably running their pitch count up to near 120 consistently is all that better for the in game effectiveness or their arms.

Even if they could get them all to go 6 full every start (they can't) ... 3 innings to cover out of the pen every game with 7 RP ... most of which cannot be optioned for a "rest". Even if the RP go every other day that is 81 appearances ... that is close to the maximum we see out of any RP and relies on them being effective every time out and giving the full inning. By August they would be toast.

========

I am leaning more to the 5 man rotation with Lamet, Davies, Clevinger, Paddack (for now) as #1-4 and the 5th slot being a Morejon / Patino "piggyback rotation" giving them hopefully some time to develop ML length in their appearances ... and when (not if) one of the first four get injured or in Paddack's case is just not effective for a playoff club ... there is a built-in replacement. Since neither Morejon nor Patino have pitched a full season of starts or pushed the 6 inning start consistently ... might not want to have them both going as starters from the beginning lest they too be burned out by August. Same should go for Gore ... he needs to build innings to cover a full season.

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 14, 2020, 10:08 am

My current projection for 40-man roster:      END of 2020 Season….

40 Man Roster Full                                                                                              40

1. MINUS FA (4): Rosenthal, Richards, Profar, Castro                                            36
2. 60-IL Activated (3): Castillo, Espinoza, Wingenter                                            39
3. FA & 60-IL (1): Yates  (“doesn’t count vs roster”)                                             39

Non-Tenders (3):   Garcia, Perdomo, Wingenter                                                    36

Select/Protect R5 (1):  Marcano                                                                          37

1,2,3 will happen shortly after the World Series.   Padres will have 1 open roster spot until further moves are made.

Then the decisions come.  Think Padres pick up Moreland's option, so don't see redundant LH, no power Garcia back.  Perdomo is a tough call.  In a "normal" season he might have a little trade value, but not sure 2021.  Hard to see where he fits with so many guys in pen & elite MLB SP prospects.  Wouldn't it make more sense to have Baez or another prospect in the long role?   Coming into season, I thought Padres made a mistake NOT trading Espinoza for whatever they could get.  Now Preller has turned over the roster AND "need to protect from Rule 5" prospects with the trade whirlwind.  Ironically, I think Espinoza "gets" Wingenter's spot.  Wingenter is in the exact position Pedro Avila & Miguel Diaz were last year; "late: (July) injury will keep him out all of 2021, so really no reason for Padres to keep him on MLB roster:  frees up the spot & saves $.  Likely he re-signs as a Minors FA like Avila & Diaz did last year.  We FINALLY get to see Espinoza on the mound in Minors after 4 years.

Marcano's not MLB ready, but is the type of guy in demand in Rule 5:  LH versatile INF with good bat skills.  So few position player prospects, think they have to protect him.  I left Reggie Lawson unprotected.  Just really hard to see a team taking him, having him open year on IL, eventually getting 30 days to rehab, then going to MLB rest of '21 & first part of '22 to retain his rights.  I don't have another player/s worth considering adding to 40-man; but a good chance 1 or 2 emerge with good showing in the Arizona developmental league going on now.

That leaves up to 3 spots open initially for FA (re?) signings.  But many more fringe & likely or possible to be traded guys.  I expect to the extent Preller trades this offseason that the vast majority of it will be from the 40-man roster.

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 14, 2020, 10:23 am

What should we do?   What will we do?

It would be nice to have some idea what Ownership is thinking about our payroll for 2021.

This is THE question.  I do think we're limited to the 150 MM +/- payroll range, so don't see for example us handing Trevor Bauer 30 MM+/yr.  Fowler & Seidler may green light expanding payroll at deadline, but doubt it from Opening Day.

To me the BIG question is does Preller:

1. Try to re-sign Profar & maybe 1-2 other of our FA & tinker around the edges of the roster; trade RP in ST for prospects, maybe trade Lucchesi? Javy Guerra? for prospects, etc.   Basically try to return close to the same team with maybe a tweaked bench.
2.  OR go bigger & do something more unexpected / extreme like trading Pham or Myers or Hosmer to free up $ & more radically change the roster.  "Given" he will at least explore players' value, b/c he always does this every offseason for basically every player!
3. OR get handed a mandate from ownership to bring payroll in at some amount lower than 2020 O.D. ("145 MM").  This would obviously be bad, handcuff him, & limit his options.

My vote would be closer to #1.  Think it would be dangerously thin to lose either Myers or Pham now.  3rd best record in MLB in 60 games with that roster.  Owners probably terrified of what 2021 might bring financially, but can't start breaking up a really good team now after all these years of trying to get there.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 14, 2020, 10:45 am

Non-tenders are in early December ... but realistically Garcia, Perdomo, and Wingenter are not that costly even if they get DFA in ST or if the 40 man roster slot is needed due to a FA signing / trade. No real need to open the slot prematurely.

Garcia may be at the highest risk but a bit a question as to who becomes the back-up INF ... Mateo? No one on the roster. Maybe they need to get that replacement first before parting ways with Garcia ... DFA later and only cost about $400K for that insurance policy.

I would guess if they DFA Perdomo someone would claim him in the era with pitching shortages (high usage) ... plus a decent adder in a trade ... low chance would have to eat any part of his contact. Note: think he will have an option year in 2021 ... IL stint did not count and don't think he crossed the 19-20 day option threshold. He will be maybe at $1MM.

Wingenter is league minimum ... and good chance he goes 60 day IL to start 2021 opening a roster spot. He too has minor league options when he is off the 60 day IL.

Might not want to drop RP with minor league options and at relatively low cost when at the end of ST they will have a number of RP without minor league options that will be DFA and opening roster spots. (Guerra? Williams? Altavilla?)

Money is not big in these players ... and roster is not tight now (maybe will never be tight this winter) so no reason to act until upgrades are in hand.

In what appears to be setting up to be a challenging FA market ... we may see the Padres signing a number of non-roster ML veterans with invitations to ST and on deals that jump up if on the ML roster. Not looking for starters here so a plausible route ... and roster slots will naturally open for them.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 14, 2020, 11:08 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on October 14, 2020, 10:23 am

What should we do?   What will we do?

It would be nice to have some idea what Ownership is thinking about our payroll for 2021.

This is THE question.  I do think we're limited to the 150 MM +/- payroll range, so don't see for example us handing Trevor Bauer 30 MM+/yr.  Fowler & Seidler may green light expanding payroll at deadline, but doubt it from Opening Day.

To me the BIG question is does Preller:

1. Try to re-sign Profar & maybe 1-2 other of our FA & tinker around the edges of the roster; trade RP in ST for prospects, maybe trade Lucchesi? Javy Guerra? for prospects, etc.   Basically try to return close to the same team with maybe a tweaked bench.
2.  OR go bigger & do something more unexpected / extreme like trading Pham or Myers or Hosmer to free up $ & more radically change the roster.  "Given" he will at least explore players' value, b/c he always does this every offseason for basically every player!
3. OR get handed a mandate from ownership to bring payroll in at some amount lower than 2020 O.D. ("145 MM").  This would obviously be bad, handcuff him, & limit his options.

My vote would be closer to #1.  Think it would be dangerously thin to lose either Myers or Pham now.  3rd best record in MLB in 60 games with that roster.  Owners probably terrified of what 2021 might bring financially, but can't start breaking up a really good team now after all these years of trying to get there.

 

Agree, closer to #1.

Trades for / of major players (with major contracts) will just be difficult across MLB given the economics ... Can't see anyone taking Myers, Pham, or Hosmer's contact.

Probably a lot of moving expiring assets (out of option players or a Lucchesi type way down the pecking order of SP) for maybe bench upgrades or AAA/AA futures). Maybe Preller can pull a player for a deep dive prospect in the DSL ... always a favorite.

======

Now just to force a different line of thought ... start with the assumption they will go the $150MM giving them maybe $15MM to deploy. Decline Moreland's option and non-tender Pham and Garcia ... would put another $12ish into the pot now up to $27MM. Clearly would need a replacement bat or two but could Ozuna or Springer be in Preller's sights with that money? Maybe flip the strategy and aim for Bauer or Stroman to bulk up the SP and free up arms for trade to get bats? Arms are always a favored commodity.

This is Preller, so never say never.