Quote from Brian Connelly on January 12, 2021, 8:20 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 12, 2021, 7:54 am

3yrs/54m is outrageous for Hendricks.

Glad it's the WS paying it and he is a good pitcher so I'm also glad he's in the A.L.

Even with Covid money concerns they just gave out the highest AAV ever for a RP.

Looks like the WS and Padres(In a way the Mets) are the ones setting the tone for this entire off season.

 

 

It's an extremely weird, player friendly, buyout option.

Hendricks EITHER gets:  4 / 54 if CWS do pick up the option @ 15 MM    OR:

He gets: 3/39  .....   BUT gets the same 15 MM as a Buyout!   The weird/catchy part is that $ is paid out over 10 years.

So he's not really "getting" 54 MM in 3 years, but he is guaranteed to get 54 MM in either 4 or 13 years.  It strongly incentivizes CWS to keep him for the 4th year, but if his effectiveness fell off a cliff they would have a way out with a long low residual cost.

His REAL AAV either way is in the 13 - 13.5 MM AAV range.    But this deal does push the market up for RP's.  Could move quickly now with Hendriks gone.

Quote from fenn68 on January 12, 2021, 8:37 am

The AAV for Hendriks is confusing ... the contract is 3 years guaranteed and $54MM guaranteed ... all the option / deferred payment issues are control / cash flow issues but, as I understand it outside the AAV calculation for luxury tax purposes (probably irrelevant).

So:

Payroll reported: $13MM - $13MM - $13MM - $15MM(option / buyout)

Cash: $13MM - $13MM - $13MM - then $15MM or deferred payments over years

Luxury Tax: $18MM - $18MM - $18MM - $0MM based on "guaranteed" money / years

If the payroll reporting sites were confusing before ... we now have a new level of confusion.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 12, 2021, 11:06 am

If the payroll reporting sites were confusing before ... we now have a new level of confusion.

Yet another reason to track/report payroll on a "real"/cash flow basis.  This is how GM's, players, fans, & even owners  look at it.

Who CARES whether 4-5 of 30 teams are 3 MM above or below the luxury tax penalty line...  that will get reported anyway through team & transactional reports/rumors.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 12, 2021, 11:42 am

I think most of agree; that with the way the roster stands now, we have the INF and C position covered both by starters and bench wise. And as long as Lamet is healthy, between Paddack, Morejon, Luchessi, Weathers, and eventually Gore we should have SP covered as well. As far as the bull pen goes, we have a multitude of arms that should take care of 90% of the innings/situations that arise.

That leaves that last pieces of the potential 26 man to be a back up CF/ 4th OF, a "closer", and maybe a vet innings eating SP especially based on what happens with Lamet.

So place in order, your position of need and the acquisition/player (if on the roster?) to fill those spots.

1. CFer - Pilar
2. 9I - Rosenthal (if price is doable) Yates
3. SP - Happ

Quote from fenn68 on January 12, 2021, 12:20 pm

Without the DH ... Pillar will be a very tough sign even if the Padres offered. Reasons:

1. No NL DH

2. Pillar in 2019 played in 161 of 162 games and in 2020 played in 54 of 60 games ... he played very well ... he likely sees himself as a regular and should get paid as a regular.

Grisham played 59 of 60 games in 2020, Pham played 145 of 162 games in 2019, Myers played 55 of 60 in 2020 and 155 of 162 in 2019 .... if healthy ... basically the three starters will play virtually full-time.

No way Pillar will take a bench role (at a bench salary) if any other team puts the same dollars on the table with a chance to play regularly to build value for next off season FA.

This goes for a lot of FA OF who consider themselves starters with a future.

========

Not sure where that leaves the Padres with any of the “better” FA OF options. So, would not rule out the Padres going the minor trade route or consider Mateo the OF and go with Tanielu as the RHPH.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 12, 2021, 12:21 pm

Personally I am not a Happ fan.

Maybe it's just me but even in his prime he just seemed like a solid #3 but was getting paid like an Ace.

But...at this point we just need an innings eater that will stay healthy and give us a chance to win....that sounds kinda like Lucchesi to me though.Would a 38 year old J.A. Happ be any better than Joey at this point?

After the two trades and seeing Lamet throwing at home I think I'm finally Ok going with what we have.

I'm assuming Baez remains in the Pen and Morejon/Gore  and Weathers start in AA/AAA and we at least "begin" the season with Snell-Darvish-Lamet-Paddack-Lucchesi..... I think I'd be OK with that.

Then at the first sign of trouble Morejon comes up or Gore if they feel it's time.Even if that is in April/May.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 12, 2021, 12:44 pm

J A Happ (38, LHP) could be an interesting sign ... if he is amenable at the right price.

From the Padres perspective he has the reputation of a pitcher who makes his starts and will give them innings ... LHP helps “balance” Darvish, Lamet, Paddack ... except for his NYY stint in 2019 has been effective for a bottom of the rotation arm. At 38, will not push a multi-year deal ... so one and done.

With Manfred stating MLB will go the entire 162 ... Padres (and all teams) have some concern having the SP to cover all those games / innings ... plus for the Padres they want the top of the rotation arms “fresh” for the playoffs, so, an innings eater arm (that is effective) might do more for the playoff run than a bench player.

From Happ’s perspective, at age 38 and having made good coin in his career, signing a fair deal with a contender might be appealing.

No idea on his desire to continue to pitch and others that may be interested in him ... and price tag.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 12, 2021, 12:47 pm

I'm not a Happ fan either and if you are looking for another lefty in the rotation then I agree that Lucchesi would probably just as good as Happ at probably 1/2 the price.  Happ, however, will be one of the many SP without a team as ST approaches so there are going to be a lot of pitchers in the bargain bin; we don't have to go out and drive up the price.

Concerning Pillar, even as the 4th OF, I see Pillar getting into a large percentage of games although he might not start that many of them.  Certainly for defensive purposes for both Pham and Myers and to give those guys a rest or let them rehab from minor injury or illness.  O'Grady will be in the mix also, but Pillar makes the Padres team better and he just might want to get into the playoffs/World Series before he's through.  Again, there are apparently going to be a lot of OF's available via FA or trade before or during ST, so I'm not worried about filling that 4th OF slot.

It would make me feel a lot more comfortable to sign either Yates or Rosenthal soon, but we do have options.  We are getting to be a pretty complete team and I can't wait to go to PETCO to see them in person!

Quote from fenn68 on January 12, 2021, 12:57 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 12, 2021, 12:21 pm

Personally I am not a Happ fan.

Maybe it's just me but even in his prime he just seemed like a solid #3 but was getting paid like an Ace.

But...at this point we just need an innings eater that will stay healthy and give us a chance to win....that sounds kinda like Lucchesi to me though.Would a 38 year old J.A. Happ be any better than Joey at this point?

After the two trades and seeing Lamet throwing at home I think I'm finally Ok going with what we have.

I'm assuming Baez remains in the Pen and Morejon/Gore  and Weathers start in AA/AAA and we at least "begin" the season with Snell-Darvish-Lamet-Paddack-Lucchesi..... I think I'd be OK with that.

Then at the first sign of trouble Morejon comes up or Gore if they feel it's time.Even if that is in April/May.

 

Yeh, we are really talking about the #5 SP ... and an innings eater. Do see Happ a bit better than Lucchesi but not sure enough depending on the price tag.

Having all the prospects start in the MiL to make those last refinements .... and pace them to make their ML runs mid-season if needed ... makes some sense for a contending team. (Side: heard the Padres want Baez back starting in the minors).

Of course if really want to have controlled innings ... especially to start the season ... that 6 man rotation could include BOTH Happ and Lucchesi ...keeps the pressure off the prospects until they are deemed “ready”. Built in coverage for an injury in the top 4. Maybe one is a trade chip at the trade deadline (everyone needs pitching) for that last piece on the bench / RP.

Price is the key ... and (as usual) ... you can never have too much pitching.