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#741 · January 8, 2021, 3:15 pm
With regard to the possible Tatis Jr. extension, I think 50 M or slightly less is about right for the 4 years before free agency. I actually had a more modest 1.5 M for this year and a 25 M guess for 2024. I think we will get a very good idea of where salary is going for shortstops and for elite players as the next couple of years go by. We have to take into consideration that Tatis Jr. just turned 22 and we really don't know his ceiling or what will be his consistent production over the next 4 years. Theoretically, the arrow on his production will still be pointing upward when he becomes FA eligible. Is he a 50 HR, 30 SB, 950 OPS player year after year (or at least until he begins to slow down on the base paths)? Is he truly a generational player like a Trout, or in past years, Aaron, Mays, etc. ?
After 2023, the only committed large salary is Machado's, so with the development of our younger prospects who probably are pre-arbitration, Preller can offer extensions to pitchers who are still dominant to round out a developing rotation. With the exception of Pham, Myers and possibly Hosmer (if he opts out), we have young replacements in Abrams, Campusano, Head, and Hassell that can be supplemented by trades or free agency if necessary. I see the need to continually address the bullpen because it is so volatile from year to year but I think the Padres are in very good shape as we head into the Tatis Jr. free agency in 2025, when he will be only 26 years old!
#742 · January 8, 2021, 3:33 pm
Did hear a discussion about Lindor's FA future ... different that maybe a Betts. In one sense being a SS has greater positional value and justify an AAV in Betts range even with maybe lesser offensive impact. However, longevity favors the OF over the SS justifying a longer contract to Betts vs. Lindor. Can a Lindor shift to the OF in his early 30s and justify the AAV?
Apply that debate to Tatis. Remember as he was coming up the system there was a lot of speculation he would outgrow SS given his father's body type. Some suggested he would have to move off SS in his late 20s.
Given at this point he is still projection with his bat (less than a full season of PA) ... how do you factor in paying for that bat projection as a SS but that same bat being less valuable if you have to play in in the OF? Push for only buying out 4 FA years then in his late 20s try to extend him again?
#743 · January 8, 2021, 4:33 pm
At age 26, Machado signed a 10 year contract worth 300M; I think Tatis Jr. will be on a similar path, but hopefully we will extend him on or before the 2024 season concludes AND it certainly will cost the Padres more than 300M, probably at or above the Trout contract. This is, of course, all theoretical because we can only dream what Tatis Jr. will be in these next 4 years. I'm not concerned what position he plays if I get the kind of production out of him that we all think he is capable of and he remains healthy enough to go 150+ games per season. OF, 3b, 1b or even DH are all possibilities if he fills out and slows down.
Tatis Sr. was only 5:11 and around 185-190 lbs during most of his career, which is around the same size as Lindor. Betts is only 5:09 but is also around 180. Tatis Jr., on the other hand, is around 6:03 and over 215 lbs but still looks lanky. I'm not worried about his size just his health - I would like to see him play his entire career in San Diego just like another special player, Tony Gwynn.
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#745 · January 9, 2021, 8:50 am
Schwarber signs with WASH for $10MM/ 1 yr ... more than most thought he would get via arbitration if he had been kept by the Cubs.
Proves it only takes one team to really want someone to pump up the price even in this market. Making guesses on FA signing levels really useless ... but apparently the early guesses are low based on signings.
#746 · January 9, 2021, 2:24 pm
$320MM/11 years .... just reported RUMOR for a Tatis extension. That level of specificity makes that a pretty good chance of being right.
Have to give Siedler credit for being bold and committed.
If true, going to be interesting to see the cash flow. If his four arb years come in at $40MM (to leave money on the table for short term adds) then the remaining 7 years ($280MM) would be at $40MM/year ... whew!
#747 · January 9, 2021, 2:41 pm
Quote from fenn68 on January 9, 2021, 2:24 pm$320MM/11 years .... just reported RUMOR for a Tatis extension. That level of specificity makes that a pretty good chance of being right.
Have to give Siedler credit for being bold and committed.
If true, going to be interesting to see the cash flow. If his four arb years come in at $40MM (to leave money on the table for short term adds) then the remaining 7 years ($280MM) would be at $40MM/year ... whew!
How bizarre would it be that SD is actually going to have to worry about being over the CBT threshhold!?!
#748 · January 9, 2021, 3:14 pm
That deal would carry about $29+ MM AAV for luxury tax purposes pushing the Padres in 2021 to about $195MM .... only $15MM under the first penalty level.
Unless willing to go over in the next few seasons ... better like the current primary roster with likely some arbitration increases going toward Lamet et al and the only Pham (with no replacement) and Stammen falling off after the season.
Probably more flexibility from a cash flow, so maybe going over may not be that big an issue (penalty in year one and two is not all that bad) and Tatis is getting $20-25MM below his AAV .. the “cash” may be there.
New CBA will change the rules ... so maybe in 2022 the luxury tax will be gone (or a much higher threshold). Big money probably kicks in in 2025 ... gone are the current big contracts for Myers, Darvish, Snell, maybe Hosmer (at least will be lower), and maybe Lamet and his arbitration awards. So Machado at $30MM and Tatis at about $40MM are the base going forward ... going to need a lot of prospects to deliver at or near league minimum to fill out a competitive roster.
#749 · January 9, 2021, 7:13 pm
Machado's contract runs out in 2028, when he will be 36 years old at the end of the season. The rumored Tatis Jr. contract has him completing his 11 year deal in 2032, when he will be just 33. If the big money kicks in at 2025 for Tatis Jr. that ties up approximately 70 M for two just players but what about our rivals to the north? They already have Betts committed for 11 more years until he is age 39 and what will they be paying Seager, Buehler and Bellinger by the time 2025 arrives?
It seems like the way salaries are rising, the luxury tax level is going to have to go up. If 175M becomes the new "average payroll" by 2025, then there still is plenty of room to stock a 26-man roster with a mix of young players and arbitration level vets, particularly if the luxury tax goes beyond 250+ M. Can the fans afford to go to games? Maybe there is more media money available, especially for a team like the Padres. My mantra is that if Padres management is not worried about future cash flow, then why should I be. Go Padres - let's get this Tatis Jr. deal done! Let's put the best team on the field that we can.
#750 · January 10, 2021, 5:13 am
The Tatis extension is why we kept Gore,Abrams,Campusano,Weathers,Morejon and Hasell.
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