Quote from BoosterSD on January 8, 2021, 10:42 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 8, 2021, 9:35 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 7, 2021, 5:05 pm

I agree, IF SD signs another SP or two I think it will be in the bounce back candidates. Maybe a Kluber, Walker, Quintana, or maybe someone that can give some innings around a 4-5 ERA.

!!!   I don't think Padres were REALLY going to get Sugano after adding net 20 MM+ to payroll in 2021 with Darvish & Snell.

All of Paxton, Tanaka, Kluber, Walker, & Quintana are likely to be >/= 8 - 12 MM/yr.   We still need a Closer and a 4th OF/CF upgrade.  With the posting fee, Padres are probably over 150 MM already.   They've blown way past what we all thought "the limit" was, but I don't think they're going to 175 MM.

Padres may add another SP, but I'll be really surprised if it's at this "deep end of the pool".  Really thought no chance on Sugano after the trades.  As Randy posted, Sugano pursuit at that point became more laying groundwork for possibly 2022 & due diligence.

I'm worried LAD are trying to kneecap us with "interest" in Yates... at a minimum driving the price up on him.

If you think any of these three are getting over $2M base with incentives, you are nuts. They are going to sign low base/incentive based deals. Probably even on a MiL deal with in an invite to ST, if they want to sign with a team like SD, with a real chance to win.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 8, 2021, 11:34 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 8, 2021, 10:42 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 8, 2021, 9:35 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 7, 2021, 5:05 pm

I agree, IF SD signs another SP or two I think it will be in the bounce back candidates. Maybe a Kluber, Walker, Quintana, or maybe someone that can give some innings around a 4-5 ERA.

!!!   I don't think Padres were REALLY going to get Sugano after adding net 20 MM+ to payroll in 2021 with Darvish & Snell.

All of Paxton, Tanaka, Kluber, Walker, & Quintana are likely to be >/= 8 - 12 MM/yr.   We still need a Closer and a 4th OF/CF upgrade.  With the posting fee, Padres are probably over 150 MM already.   They've blown way past what we all thought "the limit" was, but I don't think they're going to 175 MM.

Padres may add another SP, but I'll be really surprised if it's at this "deep end of the pool".  Really thought no chance on Sugano after the trades.  As Randy posted, Sugano pursuit at that point became more laying groundwork for possibly 2022 & due diligence.

I'm worried LAD are trying to kneecap us with "interest" in Yates... at a minimum driving the price up on him.

If you think any of these three are getting over $2M base with incentives, you are nuts. They are going to sign low base/incentive based deals. Probably even on a MiL deal with in an invite to ST, if they want to sign with a team like SD, with a real chance to win.

I hope you're right, but I REALLY doubt it...  MLBTR predictions:  Kluber 1/12, Quintana 2/18, Walker 2/16.

And their projections have come in way low on the few FA SP who have signed:  Robbie Ray, Drew Smyly, Anthony DeSclafini.

Could argue that Padres & Mets have met their SP needs by Trade, to push FA market down?  But all the other teams in on Sugano  (SF, Red Sox, Toronto, Texas) didn't get him.

I did speculate awhile back that there are so many mid tier SP FA's that at some point there might be a game of musical chairs where there simply aren't spots for all of them (at MLBTR projected $), and bottom falls out of market, but we are a long way from that.   Now that Sugano is resolved & the Mets got Carrasco, think the FA SP market below Bauer (he's alone in that stratsosphere this year, unlike last offseason) will start heating up with those & Padres guys options off the table now.  Maybe 5? teams realistically in on Bauer.  Of the other 25, some like Indians & Pirates aren't spending $ at all, some like us are relatively "set", but many (15?) need SP help.

Corey Kluber @ 5 MM wouldn't 25 teams be all over that?   I think it would be really smart strategically for the Pads to do a low 1 year deal with a VET like Cole Hamels as an insurance cushion to let the prospects PITCH & DEVELOP in the Minors to manage their IP.  If he gives you 10-12 starts at beginning of year to ease into Gore, etc or plug an injury hole it's $ well spent either way.

 

Quote from hoffy51 on January 8, 2021, 11:38 am

What is your guess on Fernando's contract? I have no idea. Just guessing . . .

4 years

2021    3 million

2022   5 million

2023   15 million (when Hosmer's contract goes to 13 mil and Myers contract is cleared)

2024   20 million

Quote from WindsorUK on January 8, 2021, 12:04 pm

If we're looking for a #5 for our rotation, who gives us innings and an ERA around 4, he's already on the roster - Joey Lucchesi.

Quote from fenn68 on January 8, 2021, 12:06 pm

A issue working against the Padres in signing some of the FA pitchers that other teams may favor may come from a combo of a more needy team willing to pay the extra dollar and the FA wanting to be sure he has a starting role with the least amount of competition to he can showcase is work for the next FA shot (or get dealt at the trade deadline to a contender). For the FA more about positioning and money than about being on a winning team for maybe one year and being on a one year deal (best that should expect) with the Padres SP depth not going to get a lot of slack if he struggles.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 8, 2021, 12:22 pm

Quote from hoffy51 on January 8, 2021, 11:38 am

What is your guess on Fernando's contract? I have no idea. Just guessing . . .

4 years

2021    3 million

2022   5 million

2023   15 million (when Hosmer's contract goes to 13 mil and Myers contract is cleared)

2024   20 million

I would go a bit higher (maybe $50MM if the went through the arbitration process) with a bit stronger 2022 number being a base for better numbers in 2023-24.

Guessing that would be the easy part of the negotiation with the Padres willing to go with the high side to keep everyone “happy”.

Now the buyout of extension years ????????? AAV / years.

4 control years at $50MM plus 4 FA years at $30MM/yr = $170MM/8 years? Tatis retests at age 30 and an 8 year guarantee divides the risk between Tatis and the team. Not sure anything less than $30MM for the FA years would motivate Tatis to pass on FA in 4 years given the Betts, Machado, Harper, and soon to be Lindor deals. In four years, he COULD be pushing $35MM AAV.

I go back to my previous comment that for his big marketing potential (and those revenues) he has to be on a perpetual playoff team ... after his four control years who is around? The entire elite pitching staff is gone and the only established star maybe be Machado. Better to wait ... get the $50MM via arbitration (or just sign for the arbitration years). Get serious near the end of the control years ... or not.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 8, 2021, 12:48 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on January 8, 2021, 12:04 pm

If we're looking for a #5 for our rotation, who gives us innings and an ERA around 4, he's already on the roster - Joey Lucchesi.

Except Luchessi has no upside whatever. At least with a Kluber, Quintana, or a Walker you are signing them on the cheap, hoping they regain their lightning in a bottle, and you have a #2/#3 at a basement bargain price.

I do think; unfortunately, that we will see Luchessi start for SD this season, just out of pure necessity based on the number of innings pitched last season, and the large increase that we hope to see this year. I just hope we can smartly spot start him against some of the basement level teams, and hope he pulls off some smoke and mirror starts, and we win those games via a beer league softball game score.

Quote from WindsorUK on January 8, 2021, 2:22 pm

As long as we keep him out of Colorado, he should be alright 👍

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 8, 2021, 2:36 pm

Not so sure any will be signed “on the cheap” .... depending on the definition of “cheap”. A lot of teams need SP and that alone will keep their salary up ... if the rest of the league sees any life in these guys.

Padres and each players’ agent sees a probable starting staff of: Darvish, Snell, Lamet, Paddack, and Gore (one of the elite prospects in MLB) backed by Morejon, Lucchesi, and Weathers. Not the competition a veteran would want to get into unless he has no other options (or the Padres really offer a big deal) ... and if the player has no other options not sure the Padres want to pay for the gamble.

I will stick with first trying to deploy any money left (if any) for an upgrade in the RHRP area and / or that last bench piece. Plus, Padres still may want to hold a bit on spending money on “fringe” adds until the DH is resolved. If there is a DH, could be motivated to spend the money on that last bench piece if both Kim and Cronenworth are in the regular line-up.

Keep in mind the Padres were projected as a 98 win team (tied with LAD for #1) ... so few see the the shortcomings as critical.