Quote from Randy Manese on January 7, 2021, 3:16 pm

My guess is that there was not going to be a signing this year of Sugano at his price but Preller wanted to show Sugano that he has serious interest and to keep the Padres in mind next year.  I think that is a very strategic move.  Don't know what we'll get out of Clevinger in 2022, whether Paddack makes those needed adjustments be a solid #3-type pitcher, whether our young pitchers show enough promise and upside in the minors/majors in 2021 and, of course, who is healthy and who is not during this season.

Having lived/worked in Japan for 16 years, this has great value in their culture even if a deal doesn't happen right away.  Laying the groundwork is extremely important to develop trust and communication.  I really don't think they are actually going to put out another 12M or so for another starter this year so I wouldn't get my hopes up for Paxton or Tanaka.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 7, 2021, 5:05 pm

I agree, IF SD signs another SP or two I think it will be in the bounce back candidates. Maybe a Kluber, Walker, Quintana, or maybe someone that can give some innings around a 4-5 ERA.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 7, 2021, 5:11 pm

Heard a report on MLB Network; via Hector Gomez(?), that Preller is in the Domincan talking directly to Tatis, and its possible they may have an extension put together by next week.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 7, 2021, 7:15 pm

This is the best rumor/news of the day!  Make it happen!

Quote from fenn68 on January 8, 2021, 5:49 am

I expect Preller was considering Sugano (likely on a longer term contract) because he viewed him as a healthy, innings eater, upper rotation arm ... worst case a reliable #3. At that point is probably was just a value proposition and $48MM/4 years (as rumored0 was too high.

I don’t think that translates into him going after the FA out there since they more likely are pricy for only short term fix and come with injury / quality concerns. The exception if one falls through the cracks at a real bargain price.

Probably shifts his money towards RP and bench OF.

If all you get is a healthy arm that might get them a 4.5o ERA .... have to think the Padres have than with their prospects: Gore; Lucchesi; Weathers; Morejon. Gamble on them (with a future) vs. someone like Kluber (for a lot more money) who is a major health / performance risk. There is a reason teams are not beating down the door on any of these veteran arms in a league needing SP ... past the bigger money options of Bauer, Paxton, and Tanaka the others are high risk. Yet, Smyly got $11MM.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 8, 2021, 6:13 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 7, 2021, 5:11 pm

Heard a report on MLB Network; via Hector Gomez(?), that Preller is in the Domincan talking directly to Tatis, and its possible they may have an extension put together by next week.

Listened to a Forbes reporter discussing the marketing value of Tatis ... re Tatis’ new Gatorade commercial.

First, Gatorade really make a call that Tatis is going to be a super star (only 3rd MLB player they signed ... Jeter and Harper the other two) ... both nationally and internationally.

Second, his on-field is part but his personality of playing to his rules / breaking the un-written rules image is the key ... appealing to the younger generation.

Third, to sustain the marketability for the star status he HAS to be on a team that is consistently in the post-season. However, he does NOT have to be in “major market” given the way media exists today.

Details of the deal is not out but expect he is making more money now than his baseball salary.

======

Makes the extension discussion interesting. He is controlled for four more years .... Padres are primed to be a playoff team for at least 3 of the next three years so that helps Tatis’ marketability beyond just the Gatorade deal. So, short term money may not be the major motivator.

What might factor in is how he (his agent) see the Padres in year 5 and beyond. With that point would he be better off waiting to extend to read the future tea leaves on the Padres future and target a projected future winning organization to sign?

Then add that the recent FA year deal for Betts ... and what Lindor is holding out for (he reportedly turned down $200MM for the FA years) to seek $300MM.

Should not be an “easy” or “team friendly” deal.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 8, 2021, 8:12 am

Quote from Randy Manese on January 7, 2021, 3:16 pm

My guess is that there was not going to be a signing this year of Sugano at his price but Preller wanted to show Sugano that he has serious interest and to keep the Padres in mind next year.  I think that is a very strategic move.  Don't know what we'll get out of Clevinger in 2022, whether Paddack makes those needed adjustments be a solid #3-type pitcher, whether our young pitchers show enough promise and upside in the minors/majors in 2021 and, of course, who is healthy and who is not during this season.

Having lived/worked in Japan for 16 years, this has great value in their culture even if a deal doesn't happen right away.  Laying the groundwork is extremely important to develop trust and communication.  I really don't think they are actually going to put out another 12M or so for another starter this year so I wouldn't get my hopes up for Paxton or Tanaka.

Great post!  Preller stays "involved" till the end; helps at least a little push Sugano's price up, lays possible groundwork for next year, and most importantly, no other team lands him.

Hmmm... I wonder if Sugano will speak directly with Yu Darvish during/after the season? 🙂  A pretty strong recruiter to have on your side!

We don't "have" to land Sugano this or next year, but we are in a good position to if we DO need to next year.

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 8, 2021, 8:34 am

I think the FA Starter market has been slow “because” of Sugano.

Everyone was waiting to see if they could land him at a bargain.....now they move on to who “is” available.

My guess is Bauer,Paxton and Tanaka sign this month anyway.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 8, 2021, 9:04 am

With the trades for Darvish, Snell, Carrasco coming down before any top FA SP ... should we be looking for other plus SP who may be dealt (not just to the Padres) before the FA start signings?

Other than Bauer (and he will hold for major money) the second tier of Paxton (health) and Tanaka (performance) come with issues yet are holding for longer term / costly deals. After that it is a dice roll ... so, maybe the teams just wait to see who cracks first to get a better deal not really all the concerned about the difference among the lower tier options.

Hopefully we see some movement in early February under the assumption ST will start mid-late-February. However, could see on the lower tier options. teams just waiting it out longer to evaluate what they have in-house before.

Side: probably a number of teams will just keep the demand side down given the financial situation giving a lot of cover for the few teams that are in pursuit of another arm to sit and wait.