Quote from Brian Connelly on December 14, 2020, 10:19 am

The Blue Jays and Rangers are among the teams interested in Tomoyuki Sugano, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. They join the previously-reported Padres and Red Sox as known suitors for the 31-year-old.

January 7th is the deadline.   Like our odds against those teams.  Red Sox not the same cachet as in the past hopefully.

It's NYY, LAD, SF, Angels that are just tough to compete with on a "city"/franchise basis...

Quote from fenn68 on December 14, 2020, 10:43 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 14, 2020, 10:19 am

The Blue Jays and Rangers are among the teams interested in Tomoyuki Sugano, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. They join the previously-reported Padres and Red Sox as known suitors for the 31-year-old.

January 7th is the deadline.   Like our odds against those teams.  Red Sox not the same cachet as in the past hopefully.

It's NYY, LAD, SF, Angels that are just tough to compete with on a "city"/franchise basis...

Probably would consider SEA a contender if they were interested.

No idea the contract he would get from the top bidder but a recent thought was $27MM/3 years ($9MM AAV) ... lower than most I have heard. Has to fall to the team's scouts. 31 is not old for a 3 year deal so length may not be an issue (unless he wants longer). IF as many have projected ... a very good #3 SP ... $9MM AAV is more than fair. He has a track record in Japan and logged just under 140 innings last season. Even if less than a very good #3 ... $9MM is not a bad price in this era (see Richards haul for fringe production).

Missing any real scouting insight on him ... but considering the costs of maybe better options ... not a bad signing risk for the Padres. Gives ALL the kid prospects more minor league development time and innings build for the end of 2021 and sets up a real legit SP debate for 2022.

Quote from fenn68 on December 14, 2020, 11:01 am

Saw another national writer's "guess" as to what TB would demand for Snell from a lot of team including the Padres. (note I am not a Snell fan ... who is the poster child for "halo effect" stemming from his Cy Young 2018)

He wrote it would take one of (Gore or Abrams or Patino) along with Campusano and a prospect of Weathers ranking. Basically 3 Top 100 types to mirror the Chris Archer return. Lunacy!

Now I couple that vast over valuation of Snell with my long running view that Zack Davies is vastly under valued by everyone ... especially local media who should do more homework.

So consider over 2019-20:

Snell ...34 starts ... 157 innings (4.5 innings / start) ... 3.96 ERA (AWAY from TB 80 innings ... 5.06 ERA)

Davies ... 43 starts ... 229 innings (5.3 innings / start) ... 3.30 ERA (Away fr0m Miller/PETCO 123 innings ... 2.77 ERA)

Gray ... 42 starts ... 231 innings (5.5 innings / start) ... 3.07 ERA (Away from CINN 115 innings ... 3.14 ERA)

No idea how anyone thinks Snell is a TOR arm when he can't go 5 innings and gets pummeled consistently away from his home park. Davies pitches more innings ... better overall ERA ... better AWAY ERA yet to most is a throwaway.

Maybe it is Davies the Padres should be trying to sign to a longer term contract/

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 14, 2020, 11:53 am

I'm sure this is why TB,a WS contender,is contemplating trading him.

Yes they are a team that trades players as they start to get expensive but they would(an may) hold on to Snell if they thought he was a difference maker.

I'm OK with Gray....or Carrasco....or Sugano.

I just know i would feel "alot" better about 21' and 22' if we added another arm to the rotation to pitch ahead of Paddack and the Rookies.

I'm also OK with Lucchesi to start in the #5 position while Gore/Patino/Morejon are getting more minor league time.

But adding a #3 or better would be best case scenario.

 

Quote from brent wolff on December 14, 2020, 1:14 pm

Does anyone possibly think Garrett Richards would return to fill a rotation spot?  Last year seemed to end quite unusually with him being switched by the club to the pen and even when he was in the starting rotation he never really got a chance to pitch deeper into games last season (as he was usually pulled prior to the 5th inning).  It also seemed that Richards didn't want to be pulled from the rotation and pitch exclusively out of the pen.

Even in the playoffs when the injuries to Clevinger and Lamet hit, Richards wasn't given an opportunity to step up and help cover the starting innings lost.  I know it seems doubtful, just wondering if anyone thinks Richards is a possible alternative.  Go Pads!

Quote from Randy Manese on December 14, 2020, 1:30 pm

Responses to the above posts

Not surprised Renfroe did not sign with San Diego because of the bad connection with the San Diego fans; think they expected too much from an incomplete player.  Should do well in Boston with the tattooing the Green Monster.  Thought he could better in a much limited role the second time around.  Contract is slightly above what I though Padres would offer.

Concerning Richards, my impression is that he didn't like to be used the way he was in the end.  Padres relief pitchers were going on fumes and tried to juggle an almost impossible situation to at least make it past the wild card.  Maybe they should have put him to there to start a game or two but they were really trying to find the right spots during the game when he could make the most impact.  I think that the frustration that Richards experienced will keep him from re-signing with the Padres plus he probably wants more than they are willing to pay for a short term fix.

Quote from WindsorUK on December 14, 2020, 1:37 pm

So, if the season starts today, we're thinking Lamet, Davies, Paddack, Lucchesi and either an FA signing ( Richards, Sugano, etc.) or the winner of the spring training battle( Gore, Patino, Weathers, Morejon) in the 5 spot?

The young guns( G,P,W,M) are the rotation at El Paso, until a front line guy goes down in SD?

Who's the 5th starter in AAA then? Someone already in the system or another outside FA?

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 14, 2020, 1:50 pm

Quote from WindsorUK on December 14, 2020, 1:37 pm

So, if the season starts today, we're thinking Lamet, Davies, Paddack, Lucchesi and either an FA signing ( Richards, Sugano, etc.) or the winner of the spring training battle( Gore, Patino, Weathers, Morejon) in the 5 spot?

The young guns( G,P,W,M) are the rotation at El Paso, until a front line guy goes down in SD?

Who's the 5th starter in AAA then? Someone already in the system or another outside FA?

There is great depth in SP at AAA/AA... Lake Bachar might be 1st choice.  Also: Jake Nix, Brett Kennedy, Pedro Avila.

Paddack & Lucchesi (obviously) wouldn't drop below AAA.  I don't think Michel Baez will either based on his age.  Really  doubt Morejon below AAA at this stage either.  I think AA better for Gore & Patino.  Weathers very likely AA.   Guys above likely AAA or bust except Avila (and later in season, Reggie Lawson) AA to ease back after TJ Surgery.

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 14, 2020, 2:02 pm

Greg Holland age 35, re-signs with Royals:   2.75 MM + 1.5 MM max incentives.  So 2.75 - 4.25 MM  vs 1/5 MM predict by MLBTR.

REALLY Good marker for age 33 Kirby Yates also predicted for 1/5.  Could see a very similarly structured deal.  Would love a buyout up to 1 MM for a 2nd year @ higher salary like 8-10 MM.

Older players with history with team & with (Yates) wife & young kids there is definitely an incentive to stay put.