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#391 · December 13, 2020, 5:54 am
Quote from brent wolff on December 12, 2020, 8:27 pmAssuming Gray & Rothschild can work together, would this be enough for Gray: Luchessi, Marcano, Mejia & Lawson and/or one of the none option RH RP. Mejia has hit the majority of his home runs in that ballpark. Luchessi gives them a starter, Marcano is a solid 2B prospect. Lawson coming off TJsurgery, and/or maybe Cincy would prefer one of the non-option RH relievers such as Guerra. Gray has pitched well the last two seasons in Cincy, but that is close to his home as he is from Kentucky. I believe the Pads would get 2 years of control of Gray, thus the need for a solid package. This would allow us to clear a few 40-man roster spots to fill out our bench and pen for this upcoming season. Is this a realistic offer or not? What do you guys think? Go Pads!
Probably not enough using the Lance Lynn deal as a benchmark. Gray and Lynn have been similar in production. Lynn got a Top 100 prospect who appeared in the ML in 2020 plus a low rookie ball prospect. Lynn only has one year control at $9.3MM.
Gray has three years control if the option for 2023 is exercised. $10.7MM - $10.7MM - $12.5MM which is a very team friendly cost for his productivity. He should cost significantly more.
Guessing CINN will want good, low cost, long control ML ready pitching in return since they have a ton of money into veteran high cost position players locked in for the next few years. They also have a pretty good catcher in Barnhart and their #1 prospect is a catcher ... so Mejia probably would not be the featured return.
Probably one (or two) of Patino - Morejon - Weathers would have to lead the deal. If only one of them, then maybe three additional pieces ... probably a Baez / Lucchesi type plus a very good non-roster prospect or two (Wilcox? Cruz? Lange?).
If really on the market CINN will have a lot of teams interested ... so no idea if they have (and would deal) their assets to outbid SD ... but that demand would make the price stay high.
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Side note: since the Padres are really thin in AAA/AA/A+ with quality position player prospects ... would try not to include those few in any deals at this point. Same goes for dealing Mejia (like him or not) if the objective to win now (and if dealing for someone like Gray that has to be the objective). Need catching at the ML level with Nola going 120 games at best (risk of injury) and Campusano more suited to be a AA prospect in 2021. No Mejia ... potential for a gaping hole that can't be filled.
#392 · December 13, 2020, 7:25 am
LOL
You guys love doing these 4 for 1 deals.....this time for a guy that hates the pitching coach in place here.
If you keep doing 4 for 1 deals at some point you have nothing left to play with much less do a deal down the road that actually makes sense......here's to another 50 years of "wait till next year" baseball as you all trade away the future of this team.
#393 · December 13, 2020, 7:52 am
Quote from 3fingersplit on December 13, 2020, 7:25 amLOL
You guys love doing these 4 for 1 deals.....this time for a guy that hates the pitching coach in place here.
If you keep doing 4 for 1 deals at some point you have nothing left to play with much less do a deal down the road that actually makes sense......here's to another 50 years of "wait till next year" baseball as you all trade away the future of this team.
Not for THAT 4 for 1 deal ... but that is what it would take to get him. (And the base assumption that no issue between the two .. not valid ... but the premise for the construct).
Not really about dealing “four” ... about dealing which “four”. All prospects (players) are not created equal ... or have any projected major ML value.
But do agree that in 2021 ... with getting to (and past) the one game play in Wild Card is low probability ... not a good strategy IF have to deal one of the top prospects (e.g. Patino). Need a much higher probability of going deep as a precursor to making that big deal. Not going bet 2021-26 on “OO” on the roulette wheel.
There will be FA and trade opportunities next winter (if there appears to be a 2022 season with no work stoppage) ... by then should have a better idea if Gore-Patino-Morejon-Weathers can be the future plus if a DH is approved and Pham is gone may need those trade chips (and payroll space) for a LF/DH.
#394 · December 13, 2020, 10:44 am
Apparently Preller likes the 4 for 1 deals also.
Which is really all that matters.
But that was when he needed to cull the roster anyway.
He doesn’t anymore.
#395 · December 13, 2020, 12:55 pm
In my opinion, Padres are not going to invest heavily in the FA market or give up a lot of high end prospects heading into the 2021 season. I predicted Preller will go after his RH closer (Rosenthal or someone else) but likely not to make any big moves until we get more of a look at what we actually have. The 2020 season has to be taken as an aberration with a couple guys (Hosmer and Myers) way over their past performance stats with San Diego. How far they fall and how far others come up to their expected norms will determine the success of the team, but to expect as high a winning percentage as last year is probably unrealistic.
As spring training unfolds and the first couple of months of the season are played, we should get a very good idea of true strengths and weaknesses. At that time, prior to the trading deadline, is when I think the big deals will be made if the Padres are competitive and in the hunt for a playoff spot. Too many question marks right now to mortgage the future by filling one hole only to open up others in the near future. For that reason, look for Preller to be fairly conservative in the next month or so and fill out what he can with the money he has at his disposal.
#396 · December 13, 2020, 1:25 pm
Quote from Randy Manese on December 13, 2020, 12:55 pmIn my opinion, Padres are not going to invest heavily in the FA market or give up a lot of high end prospects heading into the 2021 season. I predicted Preller will go after his RH closer (Rosenthal or someone else) but likely not to make any big moves until we get more of a look at what we actually have. The 2020 season has to be taken as an aberration with a couple guys (Hosmer and Myers) way over their past performance stats with San Diego. How far they fall and how far others come up to their expected norms will determine the success of the team, but to expect as high a winning percentage as last year is probably unrealistic.
As spring training unfolds and the first couple of months of the season are played, we should get a very good idea of true strengths and weaknesses. At that time, prior to the trading deadline, is when I think the big deals will be made if the Padres are competitive and in the hunt for a playoff spot. Too many question marks right now to mortgage the future by filling one hole only to open up others in the near future. For that reason, look for Preller to be fairly conservative in the next month or so and fill out what he can with the money he has at his disposal.
Agree ... at least that would be my approach. Loved what happened in the 2020 season but 60 games can be really deceiving (good or bad).
First he offense most assuredly with revert to their mean. In August they were the best in the NL .. but Sept fell to 6th. Looking at the individuals in 2020 base on wRC+ as an offense benchmark:
Myers (154) which was his career best (7 years) and well over his career 110
Machado (148) which was his career best (8 years) and well over his career 120
Hosmer (127) which was his career 2nd best (10 years) and well over his career 107
Then what do really know about the "kids" over a full season:
Tatis (149) but has only 629 PA in his ML career (over two years) ... less than one season worth ... has not played a full season since 2017.
Nola (127) but has only 451 PA ... not caught a full season in the ML
Cronenworth (125) but only has 192 PA ... major concern Aug (172) to Sep (54) and vs RHP (156) / vs. LHP (58)
Grisham (121) but only has 435 PA
On the potential plus side ... Pham's career is 126 replacing Profar's career year of 111.
Bottom line there is legitimate concern of a 20%+/- reduction in offense from the starters ... and no offense on the bench. 6 month season will have a lot of ups and downs.
#397 · December 13, 2020, 1:44 pm
Sort of depends how the April schedule is set ... often some "open dates". If that is valid in 2021, then maybe the Padres go with 4 SP early (Lamet, Davies, Paddack, Lucchesi) and, if a 5th is needed go with a bullpen day when all the RP are "fresh" and needing work. Option Patino, Morejon, Weathers to the minors and do not add Gore to the 40 man ... all get "controlled innings" and more development until one is called up (based on performance).
A side benefit is being able to keep one of the out of option RP around a bit longer for further evaluation (or just to burn him out in blow-outs). Plus provides some injury insurance for a few weeks in the pen.
Additional benefit is keeping Patino, Weathers, Gore in the minors for a little over 2 weeks adds a year of control ... Morejon for a month does the trick. In all cases totally justified to build their SP credentials.
I would expect all four will see ML time during 2021 either rotating in as the 5th SP or coverage of any of the top 4 getting injured (or just ineffective). If the Padres are "sellers" at the deadline ... could see them up to replace potential trade chips in Davies and Lucchesi.
A lot of moving parts and "ifs" ... but 2021 may be the critical year for those top prospects stepping forward.
#398 · December 13, 2020, 5:18 pm
Thanks for the feedback on the possible Gray trade. I'm now in agreement that Preller will most likely go with a low end free agent/rebound candidates to fill the starting pitching staff hole(s).
How realistic is the possibility of a 6-man pitching rotation? In order to build the pitch counts/arm strength of the the entire staff and especially our young guns: Gore, Patino, Morejon, Weathers and to some degree even Lamet & Paddack. Then once the Gore, Patino, Morejon & Weathers begin the year in the minors and the team can gain another year of control over them, then these guys will be pitching only once a week. Maybe, the 6-man rotation will become the new normal, just as when major league teams once changed from 4-man rotations to 5-man rotations. What do you guys think? Go Pads!
#399 · December 14, 2020, 6:51 am
Not sure about a pure 6 man rotation .... but clearly some creativity with SP and RP will be needed in 2022. That will be an issue across all MLB.
A 6 man rotation may ease the burden on the SP but at the same time takes an arm out of the bullpen. So, as starters go 5-6 innings the rest of the game goes to the 7 (down form 8) RP ... probably leading to lowering pen effectiveness over the season with the higher workload per arm. Padres will have a second issue ... a pen with most of the arms being out of minor league options making it more difficult to rotate in fresh arms.
We may end up with quite a drop-off effectiveness in the 2nd half of the year ... goes for all MLB. Probably injuries for creative use of the IL ... which put a bigger demand for having good replacements in the minors.
I see more of an ML/MiL rotation with the young prospect (Gore, Patino, Morejon, and Weathers) ... all have minor league options ... since in the MiL they can be "rested" to conserve innings without the concern about actually winning games at the ML level.
Would be "easier" if Preller adds a veteran innings eater as a bridge to the kids being ready and to 2022.
#400 · December 14, 2020, 7:19 am
Looking at innings pitched in 2018-19-20 for each of the current likely SP candidates ...
- Lucchesi (27): 137 - 164 - 8 ... may be the best equipped to deliver the 150-180 innings
- Davies (27): 113 - 159 - 69
- Paddack (24): 90 - 146 - 59
- Lamet (28): 0 - 97 - 69
- Gore (21): 60 - 101 - 0
- Patino (21): 83 - 95 - 17
- Weathers (20): 18 - 96 - 1
- Morejon (21): 65 - 44 - 19
So (not considering quality) Lucchesi / Davies / Paddack / Lamet have the track record to potentially go that 5-6 innings over 30 starts over a full season with spot starts going to others to fill the season for those four slots.
The 5th slot opens up for one of the prospects (or some sort of rotation of prospects). Not sure how may innings would be considered the limit given their histories and very young arms in order to prevent injuries (and maintain effectiveness over a season). Probably less than the 150 inning mark.
Sets-up for keeping three of the prospects in the minors under a controlled innings plan to start the season then have them ready for call-ups mid-season ... to cover the prospect in the #5 slot and cover the inevitable injury / under performance out of the four veterans. Also, just to cover more bases, if the Padres are out of contention on August 31 ... Davies is a good trade chip that may open a slot.
Need to have all the prospects developing as SP ... so not really interested in keeping any as bullpen options. I know we like immediate success and, if not, clearly a failure and should move on but the prospects are all 20/21 (younger than most high profile college draft picks) ... so should work on a normal development plan based on the upside projection.