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Off Season Thread

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Quote from WindsorUK on December 14, 2020, 1:37 pm

So, if the season starts today, we're thinking Lamet, Davies, Paddack, Lucchesi and either an FA signing ( Richards, Sugano, etc.) or the winner of the spring training battle( Gore, Patino, Weathers, Morejon) in the 5 spot?

The young guns( G,P,W,M) are the rotation at El Paso, until a front line guy goes down in SD?

Who's the 5th starter in AAA then? Someone already in the system or another outside FA?

I would send the "kids" to San Antonio (AA) ... a much better environment for pitchers than El Paso and a direct jump for a pitcher from AA to the ML is common these days. Plus Jimmy Jones is a good pitching coach.

So, COULD see San Antonio with Gore, Patino, Morejon, Weathers, and Baez. Just not sure where either Lawson and Espinosa fit to start the season (maybe long relief to start working back from injury .. maybe extended ST).

El Paso gets the more fringe options: Bachar; Kennedy; Nix; Avila; plus think they have a few veteran minor league SP options to toss in. Probably will sign one or two more veteran minor leaguers (or ML on minor league deals) for the AAA role.

 

Think don't think re-signing Richards is priority goal ... and not likely either for Richards.

His 2020 as a starter was just OK .... 10 starts (46 innings) and a 4.27 ERA. Preller is probably looking for better options and may think that one (or a combo) of the prospects can deliver the same more cheaply.

Richards knows the landscape of prospects and returnees in SD ... may be looking for a home with a better chance of being a starter for the full season.

At the end if neither Preller nor Richards find what they seek ... maybe if the price is right ... but unlikely.

Looks as though MLB is beginning to float the idea of delaying the season until May (ST also delayed). Stated objective is to ensure the players get the vaccine prior to reporting for health / safety reasons ... also may reflect the thought that fans may not be in the stands fully in APR (revenue loss for playing). Willing to play less than 162 games.

But as we know .... has to get agreement with the Union and we know how that went last spring.

Union want to play the 162 and get paid for 162. Willing to move the end of the season to the end of OCT (playoffs to NOV) but that is a money loser for MLB (as the owners see it). Union does not want to cut their pay if less games are played.

Basically the negotiations we saw last spring will be back this winter / spring with few differences ... the vaccine is coming at some point for a return to “normal” and the entire issue of the new CBA negotiations (and potential work stoppage) coming for 2022.

Think both sides will want to work this so they can build the best cash reserve to cover the work stoppage lost revenue / salaries.

======

Wonder if a “shortened” 2021 and a potential work stoppage shortening 2022 will alter the approach to roster moves. Might put a damper on trades (where a team has to give up long control assets) for players with only one or to year control. I guess that could even apply to three year control players given the potential loss of their playing time.

At least with a FA ... a good chance will not get paid if the league is not playing and are giving up nothing but cash.

IF (and likely they will) MLB succeeds in delaying (and shortening) the season to May ... maybe June ... and reduce the schedule to 100-130 games .... might be a plus for the Padres and Preller. With the reduced season there is a much better chance that the young prospect SP can pitch the full season even with innings limits.

More incentive to use the kids and not “waste” trade chips / money on “filler” options that may not be much better than the kids. Shorter season also reduces the chances of the pen getting burned out before the end of the season.

Might lead Preller to “stand pat” until all is clearer considering (as with last negotiation) a shorter season may also yield the DH and, if so, maybe that is where he focuses his money / trade chips since at the moment that is really a non-competitive part of the Padres projected 26 man roster (plus has to also be thinking in 2022 Pham is gone so the need for adding offense in LF then).

A few weeks back the Padres made an unheralded signing of 6 year minor league prospect Nick Tanielu (28) ... RHH 3B/2B out of the Houston org.

Could be someone to watch for that RHH INF/PH bench opening. His minor league stats are petty good with a line drive type stroke and low K% ... seems to fit the new Padres’ model.

Padres signed him quickly ... so, guessing their scouts saw some potential. His presence (under the assumption the Padres do see his upside) may mute their efforts to sign a more high profile player for that role (at a higher cost).

Delaying and shortening the season requires negotiations with the MLBPA.

This could very well lead to the DH in the NL as it did last year.

If the owners ask something of the players they will respond by asking to establish the DH again.

This off sets(a little) the terrible news that we may not have ST starting in Feb and once again may not get 162 games of Padre baseball.

😩

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 15, 2020, 2:45 pm

Delaying and shortening the season requires negotiations with the MLBPA.

This could very well lead to the DH in the NL as it did last year.

If the owners ask something of the players they will respond by asking to establish the DH again.

This off sets(a little) the terrible news that we may not have ST starting in Feb and once again may not get 162 games of Padre baseball.

😩

As with last season it will start with the demand to get paid for a full season even if shortened (union has a better argument now given how they worked through the end of the 2020 season). Should then expect the DH and expanded rosters in the mix of negotiations.

I have zero belief that the owners are making this proposal for the “safety of the players”. Apparently they were not concerned about that July-Oct of this year when they did play. More just to avoid playing games without fans (or enough fans) early in the season to generate profit ... avoid those games (and the players salaries) and avoid losses while probably again proposing the expanded playoffs (from the current CBA level of 5 teams per league) where most of the profits go to the owners.

Union ... already ticked off with the owners ... just get more angry with the transparent moves for profit (at the expense of the players) .... going to be a tough CBA negotiation next winter.

The questions I have are numerous like season tickets....prorated for games lost or fans not allowed, players that refuse to get this vaccine and there will be players that refuse....I won't even get into that can of worms, what happens to all of the non  player employees again and with no ST...what happens to the players in the farm system, what about the different states having different "virus" protections in place....size of gathering etc....the 49'ers had to go to Arizona to practice and play....would that affect the Giants and A's or if it became a state wide mandate could the Padres, Dodgers and Angels even play in SoCal ?

What a mess.....even if the union and owners came to some sort of agreement the state or county/city governments could squash the season for some teams.

Quote from fenn68 on December 15, 2020, 12:04 pm

A few weeks back the Padres made an unheralded signing of 6 year minor league prospect Nick Tanielu (28) ... RHH 3B/2B out of the Houston org.

Could be someone to watch for that RHH INF/PH bench opening. His minor league stats are petty good with a line drive type stroke and low K% ... seems to fit the new Padres’ model.

Padres signed him quickly ... so, guessing their scouts saw some potential. His presence (under the assumption the Padres do see his upside) may mute their efforts to sign a more high profile player for that role (at a higher cost).

Fangraphs Roster Resource has him listed as a MLB bench player right now.

My GM plan of moment...

  1.  Sign Sugano or ?? 15 MM AAV max (not counting posting fee, which I know does count)
  2.  Do the "100% of Stammen's salary + Joey" trade, BUT for a decent MLB backup/bench position player maybe in Arb @ 1-2 MM.
  3.  Sign Yates for 1 yr + option + incentives with as low base as possible.

Done.  That's probably 20 MM+ spent, but 4-5 MM saved.

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