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Off Season Thread
#261 · December 2, 2020, 10:47 pm
Both sides want to make max money after 2020 and since the end of 2020 ran well ... they will go for it.
Obviously, but they get there very different ways. Players play as many games as possible. Owners need as many fans in stand as possible. Stadiums are NOT going to be full/sold out 4 months from now (Opening Day, ironically April 1st)....
I believe major pro sports do serve a huge economic & psychologically important role to the entire country. So think MLB players, coaches, trainers, clubhouse, umpires, etc, etc WILL be a high priority and will all get vaccinated before season starts. But don't see any realistic way entire population does that fast.
Players will push very hard for all 162. You can't compact a long season the way they did a 60-game one, but theoretically could play later into this year, since later = safer in 2021 (no covid @ flu season issue); but that might lead to warm weather neutral playoff sites again--not ideal. For the owners, it's a "simple" math problem that we don't have the figures for... at some point they are literally better off paying players a little >100% salary on a per game basis ("cash flowing" the small 'overage' over the season) when there are "enough" fans & rising in the stands, than earlier in the season when stadiums are.... 1/8, 1/4 full?
Hope you're right and it's just full go, but what the players & owners want (given the situation) is NOT the same thing.
#262 · December 2, 2020, 11:20 pm
Quote from fenn68 on December 2, 2020, 7:56 pmLike Alberto too as a RHH option in the INF ... really some insurance with Cronenworth having struggled with LHP in 2020. If Balt did not want to go with arbitration with an expected $2.6 - $3.0MM decision ... and got no trade feelers ... probably should be signed for less ... and that fits well.
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Did see a note from Dennis Lin that the Padres will be looking for additional LH relief pitching help since they want to work Morejon and Weathers as SP.
Did not say the profile but maybe not a major add with Pomeranz, Strahm, Hill, and Castillo in hand. They can option Hill and Castillo I guess if they add a better ML veteran.
Me too on Alberto; good call. I like the idea of another LHRP; would like to see Castillo in AAA to knock off the rust of not playing in 2 years. Should have to force his way up, not be anointed an MLB spot.
The Non Tender who jumps off the page to me is David Dahl. Horrible injury filled year; cleanup surgery on shoulder, should be ready to go ST (sound familiar?). 2019 All Star who started 37 games in LF, 36 in CF, 19 in RF... in Colorado!? #10 overall draft pick 26 y.o. controllable 3 years at < 2.5 - 2.7 MM projected arb salary?!?! Sign me up; 4th OF written all over him. LH, not RH, but I envision him in all 3 spots, but mostly the corners, esp LF spelling Pham.
Some GOOD or at least potential rebound guys available in FA cheap.
#263 · December 3, 2020, 4:58 am
Dahl is a professional hitter....when healthy.The definition of needing to be on the field to be any help.
Would have no issue with his signing at the right cost.
Another option is Eddie Rosario....29 years old and just destroys RH pitching and could spell Pham or fill in if/when Pham misses time.
32 HR and 109 RBI in the full season of 19'.
Rosario could also be our DH against RH pitching if/when that happens or take over LF when Pham departs.
#264 · December 3, 2020, 5:57 am
Two interesting non-tenders.
Rosario (LHH) was looking at a $10MM arbitration decision (sort of the Twins' version of Pham) ... very good hitter / very bad fielder. Even if the Twins are unwilling to go to $10MM on him (although they are going to try to re-sign him at a lower price point) a bit surprised they could not work out a trade ... even for a mid-range prospect. Should have a lot of suitors as a clear starter ... will be interesting where his price point settles.
Dahl (LHH) was only looking at about $2-3MM so maybe more surprising but Colorado is really trying to shave payroll and Dahl was perpetually injured (currently recovering from shoulder surgery). Not a good fielder. Again, seems as though there should be teams trying to sign him with the opportunity to start. I guess whoever signs him gets three control years.
I guess in both cases if their agents look at Pham-Grisham-Myers in the OF and no DH ... probably would not put the Padres high on list of places to sign. Both are young enough to want full time play to build a resume for FA.
#265 · December 3, 2020, 6:54 am
With the FA market now set ... Preller has to make a call as to go aggressive now to fill the open bench slot with players he really wants or sit back and maybe get a lesser option but at a much lower price point ... saving money for upgrades elsewhere.
Allen (OF) ... good defense, switch-hitter but not all that good a hitter
Mateo (INF/OF) .... speed but can't hit
That leaves two slots and a real need for someone who can hit as a PH at a minimum and hopefully a RHH complement the LHH starters. In-house options
Ona (corner OF) and only played limited games in AA ... better served in AAA
Marcano (INF) would be way over matched having only played at FW.
Campusano (C) maybe better served in AAA and catching every day than being the second catcher only playing 50 games ... Mejia would have to serve as the reserve corner OF / 1B option
COULD the Padres live with two of them ... sure BUT not optimal for a contending team or for the development of any of the three. My view is they needed to add two position players.
#266 · December 3, 2020, 6:59 am
Rosario doesn't get on base enough. Career OBP .310 "Power only" guy.
#267 · December 3, 2020, 7:06 am
Quote from Brian Connelly on December 3, 2020, 6:59 amRosario doesn't get on base enough. Career OBP .310 "Power only" guy.
While not ideal Rosarios OBP is much better against RH pitching.
Plus,what 30+ HR power guy with .340 lifetime OBP would be non tendered and agree to sign somewhere as a 4th outfielder for less than $8 Mil?
#268 · December 3, 2020, 7:09 am
Additional thoughts on Dahl ... actually hits LHP better than most LHH but his stats away from COORS are less compelling. Cost SHOULD be manageable (hard to gauge in this market) but injury history add a significant risk factor. Not good defensively but good enough to get time in all three slots (think Myers).
What intrigues is that he is still young ... if I understand it right if he is signed with only 3 years of ML service time he would be controlled for three years .... Pham is an expensive FA after 2021 and Myers is an expensive FA after 2022 ... Padres have only Ona in the near term pipeline to start (beyond the bench issue) ... if signed to a one year contract can non-tender him if he tanks.
So, in a sense, he could provide a decent bridge over the next three years until the real young prospects are up ... plus if a DH is approved he fills a short term need.
So, at what price given the apparent high injury risk (assuming his current shoulder is healthy)? There should be a number of other bidders willing to take the risk at the expected price point with the promise of starting.
#269 · December 3, 2020, 7:19 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on December 3, 2020, 7:06 amQuote from Brian Connelly on December 3, 2020, 6:59 amRosario doesn't get on base enough. Career OBP .310 "Power only" guy.
While not ideal Rosarios OBP is much better against RH pitching.
Plus,what 30+ HR power guy with .340 lifetime OBP would be non tendered and agree to sign somewhere as a 4th outfielder for less than $8 Mil?
Rosario may be one of those FA ... maybe best suited for DH ... waiting out the NL DH decision to push a max contract. Agree that he will do everything to position himself to be a full time starter and even push for a multi-year deal trying to sell his age (29) and clear offensive productivity.
Not sure which teams have the need and would be willing to pay up but has to be a few that see him worth the money. Expect his price will be too high for the Padres with greater needs to deploy the money.
#270 · December 3, 2020, 7:46 am
Based on some discussions the NL DH in 2021 is getting unlikely. Both sides may want it but extracting that one issue out of the larger slate of negotiation issues set up for the end of season CBA negotiation and what might be setting up to negotiate about the structure of the 2021 season if the COVID issue "forces" a negotiated modification runs against the negotiation playbook for both sides.
As it stands, most view the NL DH as an advantage to the union ... owners want an equivalent concession going to them ... that starts a back and forth on issues not in play making deferral to the new CBA most logical for the two parties.