Quote from MrPadre19 on December 3, 2020, 9:35 am

GM's appear to be moving forward as if the DH will not be available to them in the NL.

You would have to think they would have a "feel for the room" so to speak on the subject.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 3, 2020, 9:36 am

I don't think it's very hard to build out the bench.  Assumptions:  15 MM to spend Total.  DH returns to NL.

• At 2.5 MM each:  Sign David Dahl (L) 4th OF & bring back (1 yr) Mitch Moreland (L) DH/1B.  Spots 1 & 2 on bench.
• Select Buddy Reed or another CF capable OF in Rule 5 draft
• Mejia (S) = 3rd spot (he should NOT be traded).
• Jorge Mateo & AAA/FA Minors INF compete for the last INF  = 4th spot.
• Jorge Mateo, Greg Allen, Rule 5 pick & maybe Minors FA compete for the last OF = 5th spot.
• Jorge Ona LF to AAA, Tucupita Marcano 2B to AA?

This is simplistic, but one of many, many iterations.  The AAA INF right now is "OK" with returnees: 1B - big Brad Zunica (L), 2B- Ivan Castillo (S), SS- Matthew Batten and FA signings  local boy 2B - Gosuke Katoh (L) & 3B - Nick Tanielu.   But the AAA OF even projecting Ona & 1-2 guys off 40-man roster there looks too thin; have to add some bodies.

That spends 5 MM total, leaving 10 MM for pitching.

• Get Manny Machado (&/or combo of: Pomeranz, Hosmer, Myers) to defer 6 MM of salary from 2021 into 2022 & 2023.  This should not be hard:  as previously written, it is MORE likely 100% of $ will actually be received in 22/23 than 21.
• Trade 100% of Craig Stammen's salary (1/5 or 2/8 + 500K incentives; really "4.5" MM in '21) with Lucchesi or Baez (prospect)
• (Re) Sign: Kirby Yates for 4 MM + incentives + 2 M buyout against 10? 12? MM in 2022.
• Sign Chasen Shreve (L) for < 1 MM.   These 2 salaries (& roster spots) roughly = Stammen/Joey on O.D. payroll
• Open Peter Seidler's checkbook for the posting fee & Sign:  Tomoyuki Sugano (2nd choice: Kohei Arihara).  1st year 15 MM max.  Structure the deal proportionally similar to Pomeranz; slide up in salary, stretch signing bonus if any.

Payroll would DEFINITELY increase in 2022, but I love our new team @ 140 MM in 2021!

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 3, 2020, 9:42 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 3, 2020, 9:35 am

GM's appear to be moving forward as if the DH will not be available to them in the NL.

You would have to think they would have a "feel for the room" so to speak on the subject.

 

Wow.  It says a lot about relations between the 2 sides that both sides want DH, it will arrive permanently in 2022, it could be utterly disastrous to have P's bat in 2021...    and you guys are still projecting at 10% chance or at least < 50%.   What a mess.

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2020, 10:05 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on December 3, 2020, 9:42 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on December 3, 2020, 9:35 am

GM's appear to be moving forward as if the DH will not be available to them in the NL.

You would have to think they would have a "feel for the room" so to speak on the subject.

 

Wow.  It says a lot about relations between the 2 sides that both sides want DH, it will arrive permanently in 2022, it could be utterly disastrous to have P's bat in 2021...    and you guys are still projecting at 10% chance or at least < 50%.   What a mess.

Yep the relationship stinks ... but the core issue is the DH being just a negotiation chip in the bigger picture ... both sides may want the DH but it may be more "valuable" to the Union than the Owners .... owners know that (or believe that) and will want something back for the difference (and that may not be up for negotiation yet).

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2020, 10:19 am

Going with the no DH idea and add the current trend in MLB to use the DH slot for a break from the field for every day players instead of having one big bopper ... would expect Preller focus on filling out the bench will be to versatility to play field positions and PH skills (LHH/RHH).

Keeping in mind that a good chance one or more will be playing extended spells as players get injured over a 162 game schedule. (who though Pham would be a no show in 2020 before the season started or Tatis would miss half of 2019). Might have to pay a bit of a premium to cover the PH and those injury issues. None of the current bench fits if the Padres want to contend (and none of the minor leaguers).

Love to get Alberto as a RHH to PH and cover all the INF slots. Dahl as a LHH who can cover all the OF slots and PH might be worth the gamble. Probably a number of other teams think that way too. Combined may be a $4-6MM investment but what will it cost if one of the starters go down and Preller has to try to back fill from the trade market mid-season (or is force to go with Mateo / Allen as a regular?

I will say this is Preller and his scouting folks ... so maybe they have an eye on some lower profile (low cost) target they can get who can fill those needed (e.g. Grisham / Cronenworth types before they became Padres).

 

Quote from BoosterSD on December 3, 2020, 10:58 am

I think the same problem with Alberto is the same with other younger players like Dahl, and I dont think they would want to come to SD to be a back up, he is too young. Only 28. I think the back ups need to be older, veteran players. I still think that Galvis and Howie Kendrick make great sense. Galvis is a switch hitter, and plays SS and 2B really well. Kendrick is a professional RHH corner INF, allowing SD to sit Hosmer against tough LHSP.

In the OF, I do think DeShields is a very good option, very good defender with speed. Yes we probably have that in Allen and Mateo, so I would go with who offers the best defense, probably DeShields?

So IMO bench should be Wieters-C (bats SH), Kendrick-1B/3B, Galvis-SS/2B (bats SH), DeShields-CF, and either Jay Bruce, Rosario, or N. Mazara-LF/PH/DH (bats LH).

Mejia, Ona, and Campusano all get the start of the season to get reps in AA or AAA.

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2020, 1:14 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on December 3, 2020, 10:58 am

I think the same problem with Alberto is the same with other younger players like Dahl, and I dont think they would want to come to SD to be a back up, he is too young. Only 28. I think the back ups need to be older, veteran players. I still think that Galvis and Howie Kendrick make great sense. Galvis is a switch hitter, and plays SS and 2B really well. Kendrick is a professional RHH corner INF, allowing SD to sit Hosmer against tough LHSP.

In the OF, I do think DeShields is a very good option, very good defender with speed. Yes we probably have that in Allen and Mateo, so I would go with who offers the best defense, probably DeShields?

So IMO bench should be Wieters-C (bats SH), Kendrick-1B/3B, Galvis-SS/2B (bats SH), DeShields-CF, and either Jay Bruce, Rosario, or N. Mazara-LF/PH/DH (bats LH).

Mejia, Ona, and Campusano all get the start of the season to get reps in AA or AAA.

that would be an expensive package. none are coming in at league minimum and if they displace Mateo, Allen, and Mejia (all are minimum dollars) that is a payroll hit before adding the other two slots. Should be some other teams interested in Kendrick and Galvis that would upper their cost.

I like Kendrick's bat but last year he really looked past his prime in the field .... he not getting reps at 3B with Machado and realistically they are not platooning him with Hosmer .... so a PH and real limited spot player .. doubt he likes that.

Galvis may be even harder to sign ... also not cheap ... knowing Tatis is playing almost every day and seeing Cronenworth as the ROY at 2B. SS are needed around the league (and he really wants to be a SS) .... he signs elsewhere.

No interest in Wieters (like Mejia better at this point), Mazara, Bruce, and Rosario are just way too costly for a DH on a team that does not have a DH or a LHH PH when the Padres need RHH PH.

I am OK with Mateo, Allen, and Mejia (at league minimum) and free up the dollars to upgrade with decent players for the other two bench slots.

Quote from fenn68 on December 3, 2020, 2:33 pm

Just to use Cleveland as an indicator of how some teams will address the financial issues at hand ... after a number of contending seasons with a payroll over $100MM they have now structured the roster down to $69MM and that includes Lindor's $19MM arb estimate. When they move him, down to $50MM. Note that with their pitching ... should be a contender (except zero offense left). Next winter a couple of other big contracts may drop off with nothing jumping up. We could see a ML club in 2022 with a payroll under $30MM.

As other teams mirror that general approach ... we may get a bigger gap between the haves and have nots and with less buyers of talent ... lower pay to players and marginal players (above minimum) may just hit early retirement.

=====

side note: mentioned before that Cleveland's ballpark lease is about up .... Cleveland's local TV deal is about up ... the clearing the decks on payroll obligations MAY be a set-up for an unencumbered sale of the franchise with the "flexibility" of the buyer moving it to another city with money and upside ... Montreal or Nashville? MLB may resist but if the "right" owners present a case for a move maybe.

If that scenario comes into play after the next CBA ... might trigger a call for expansion of two team ... one going maybe going to Cleveland.

Quote from hoffy51 on December 3, 2020, 4:14 pm

Living in Nashville, I cannot conceive of expansion without the Nashville Stars. They are partnering with the Negro League Hall of Fame. In the political climate that we are in, not giving a franchise to the only team with a Negro League name, "The Nashville Stars." Maybe it's just me, but I don't think major league baseball could resist that, or maybe even more to the point, enduring the wrath of the media for rejecting such a proposal.