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#1071 · February 4, 2021, 10:40 am
3Finger, we're on the same wavelength on Rosenthal, but I wouldn't go > 10 MM AAV guaranteed IF 2 years. The market doesn't bear it out.
My proposal tried to push as much $ into the future as possible. But I think Fenn is right that 2022 payroll might be the issue for Preller even more than 2021 $; just doesn't want to lock into another high 7 or low 8-figure salary in '22. But Fenn pointing out Brad Hand @ 1/10.5 and Yates 1/5.5 + 4.5 incentives, has me wondering about a "1+" year deal for Rosenthal combining elements of your & my proposal.
I just looked up Yates on Cot's contracts. They had the breakdown of SOME but not close to all of the incentive $. This is for Appearances: $50,000 each for 20, 25, 30, 35 games. $125,000 each for 40, 45, 50 games. $250,000 each for 55, 60, 65 games. $375,000 for 70 games. This maxes out @ 1.7 MM. That leaves 2.8 M in incentives not accounted for yet. I'm assuming those are tied to games finished? FWIW, Kirby averaged 62 games/yr with Pads from 2017-19, so fair to say only 1 MM+ of this is "likely to be earned". IF the rest is tied to "games finished" (i.e. mostly saves) it DOES open the door to TOR signing Rosenthal to be their closer, relegating Yates to 8th inning & possibly capping his incentives; i.e. 6.5 MM total $ range...
So how about this deal: 1 / 10 + 4 MM max incentives as: 7 MM base + incentives + 3 MM Club option (vs 13 MM).
This is 1/10 or 2/20 guaranteed + 4 MM incentives. If he maxes & Pads keep him it’s 11 + 13 = 2/24. It does a lot of things. Puts Rosenthal's base in line with healthy also 30 y.o. Brad Hand but with more upside based on just staying healthy (and effective). It’s hard to argue that same aged Rosenthal with very similar 2020 results but MUCH bigger FB is not>/ = Hand. BUT Rosenthal hasn’t > 50 games since 2015! Maybe 2 MM "appearance" based & 2 MM "games finished" based. Structure it so that for him to max out he would have to be =/> his glory years of 6-7 years ago.
Basically it pays him for 1 year at the highest AAV of all RP's except Hendricks if he hits some of his incentives, but only half of his max 14 MM (7 + 4 + 3) is actually paid out in 2021 season if he underperforms or gets injured.
#1072 · February 4, 2021, 10:47 am
Quote from MrPadre19 on February 4, 2021, 6:26 amMost are lowering him for his inconsistency the last few seasons.
Somewhat understandable.
He should be in the top 10 but I’m guessing he needs a top 10 “full” season to sway most everyone else.
Based on just 2020, Myers was a legit league MVP candidate. Just happened to be on a team with 2 others! That alone would seem to make him a lock as one of the 10 best at his position... that's "only" upper 1/3 tier of all MLB; top 5/League roughly.
But it was a short season, and being honest, most of us on this board probably would not have ranked him there after 2019!
#1073 · February 4, 2021, 1:29 pm
Quote from 3fingersplit on February 4, 2021, 8:07 amWill Myers is a good player and a better athlete that was willing to play anywhere.....people that want to bash him have no clue because if they did they would also know that Andy Green did his very best to destroy this kid......it's amazing that they finally get rid of that idiot and Meyers and Homer both have big rebound years
So many of us here knew EXACTLY what the problem was with Myers( Green) and knew EXACTLY what it would take to solve it( keep him in ONE spot in the field AND in the lineup).
Thankfully Tingler figured it out in ST.
I'm looking forward to another big season from Myers.
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3fingersplit
#1074 · February 4, 2021, 2:06 pm
Myers also gets a bit of a bad rap cause he is so Chill.
He "appears" like he's not trying as hard as he actually is.
#1075 · February 5, 2021, 3:02 pm
FWIW on the Athletic. One stat geek writer's Fantasy rankings of all MLB SP's...
LAD Rank PADRES
Buehler 4
xxx 6 Darvish
Bauer 7
Kershaw 11
xxx 17 Snell
Urias 22
xxx 42 Lamet
xxx 45 Musgrove
xxx 48 Paddack
Price 65
May 73
Gonsolin 75
xxx 170 Morejon
xxx 173 Gore
xxx 201 .... last / bottom guy ranked: Joey Lucchesi 🙁
Pretty insane to say 5 of 17 best, and 6 of 22 best SP in MLB NOT including Lamet are on 2 teams in the same division!
#1076 · February 6, 2021, 10:05 am
A lot of teams are “interested” in more RP but it seems that teams are signing others because Rosenthal’s “ask” is being considered too high. We will see how long that “ask” lasts as teams seeking RP diminish lessening the pressure for the remaining teams to meet his “ask”.
On key alternative on the FA market ... Mark Melancon. Melancon has had his plus and minus years but will be 36 and probably could be signed on a 1 year deal less than Rosenthal.
Melancon and Rosenthal are very different ... Rosenthal a mega K pitcher while Melancon is a mega GB pitcher. Both have closed. For 2020 reference, both pitched in 23 games with 11 saves. Rosenthal the better ERA but paying a closer for saves.
Given a plus defensive INF with the Padres ... would Melancon be a useful lower cost alternative to Rosenthal? Melancon has been healthy for the past couple of years.
#1077 · February 6, 2021, 2:23 pm
Lamet #42 and 20 places behind Urias?
WTH?
#1078 · February 6, 2021, 3:42 pm
The rankings were based on advanced metrics looking at quality of stuff, command, and likelihood of an injury. Lamet's stuff is rated among the best in the game. His control is rated slightly below average. They have him among the most likely to get hurt which is what really pushed his ranking down.
#1079 · February 7, 2021, 8:45 am
Quote from fenn68 on February 6, 2021, 10:05 amA lot of teams are “interested” in more RP but it seems that teams are signing others because Rosenthal’s “ask” is being considered too high. We will see how long that “ask” lasts as teams seeking RP diminish lessening the pressure for the remaining teams to meet his “ask”.
On key alternative on the FA market ... Mark Melancon. Melancon has had his plus and minus years but will be 36 and probably could be signed on a 1 year deal less than Rosenthal.
Melancon and Rosenthal are very different ... Rosenthal a mega K pitcher while Melancon is a mega GB pitcher. Both have closed. For 2020 reference, both pitched in 23 games with 11 saves. Rosenthal the better ERA but paying a closer for saves.
Given a plus defensive INF with the Padres ... would Melancon be a useful lower cost alternative to Rosenthal? Melancon has been healthy for the past couple of years.
I don't have any interest in Melancon unless his contract is an insane bargain.
And don't really see the point in a 2-3 MM vet middle innings RP that "has to be on roster". Just seems like a bad fit.
As much as I've pounded the table for Rosenthal, I don't think they should concede to his demands & sign a crazy contract to try to keep up with LAD in an "arms" race. I even understand if they just value him differently & are happy with what they have. COULD BE a great bullpen as is, but WOULD BE a great bullpen if they re-sign him.
#1080 · February 7, 2021, 9:06 am
Actually I am surprisingly comfortable with the core five RP of Pomeranz (L), Pagan, Strahm (L), Adams, Johnson ... maybe six if Castillo (L) is in form. If that were the mix ... then the last two slots become a battle among Stammen, Altavilla, Guerra, Williams and any PTNL. With as strong as the roster is with that pen they should have them winning their to the playoffs considering it is the SP that is among the best and the offense is strong ... all at least on paper.
Might just keep the powder dry until mid season and strategically make a deal (deploy remaining payroll space) to cover what materializes as the primary need ... and that may not be the pen if injuries begin to deplete other positions.