Quote from Brian Connelly on February 3, 2021, 3:25 pm

Colome signed +4% over his MLBTR prediction = extremely accurate since total $ was lower.  May was +10%.  Treinen was +25%.

Yates was +10% BUT up to +100% in incentives.  I thought his was too high for Padres & incentive ceiling should have been 7-8 MM.

But the RP deal way out of whack in the marketplace is Hendricks at +80% guaranteed.   Guy is the best of the FA's, but is he worth twice what any other guy is per year for 3-4 years?

His & maybe Yates' deals clearly influencing Rosenthal's ask...  If 34 y.o. Kirby can get to 10 MM, and Hendricks is 17 MM, can see why Rosenthal thinks he should be 10 MM+ AAV guaranteed.  Not saying we should (or even can), just saying can see where he's coming from with his past track recordd + 2020 performance.

I'm on record:  2/20 incl option for 3/30: ( 7.5 / 10 / 2.5 vs 12.5)  but also an offsetting trade of 2 MM in 2021 either Johnson, Strahm, or 50% Stammen.

Quote from fenn68 on February 3, 2021, 3:51 pm

If the objective is making the bullpen stronger #1-#8 ... would not trade either Johnson or Strahm to save money ... they are way too productive for their cost. More of the either the Padres can afford Rosenthal or they can’t based on their finances. Sign him and (when it gets to the final 26 man roster) just jettison another out of the Guerra, Williams, Altavilla, Stammen camp. Rosenthal, Pagan, Adams, Johnson plus one of the four on the bubble. Three will get DFA / released.

IF the Padres would go $20MM/2 ... hard to believe Rosenthal would not have been already signed ... or with any team that made that offer. If Hand got $10.5 / 1 year ... that is double the cost of one of the consistently better closers in the past few years and better than comparable of May and Treinen.

For now, still see $8MM/1 year plus incentives (games pitched) with a potential option / buyout (by some team) which would nest him in the zone of the other three comps.

Still not fully sure that the Padres want a 2022 commitment guaranteed for big money with what may be a payroll upward pressure coming naturally and a good chance they will be looking for a LF/DH to replace Pham (or try to resign Pham).

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 3, 2021, 8:09 pm

Rosenthal wants a ring more than anything and he has already made over 21,000,000 in his career. He is a smart guy and has invested wisely in Real Estate so he has pretty well set himself, his wife and kids up for life after baseball so he will be looking at teams that can win the whole thing....Kansas City isn't it, Toronto maybe but they just signed Yates and he LOVES San Diego, his wife Loves San Diego and his girls Love San Diego . He has a net worth of over 15 million dollars if not more due to his contracts and is very savvy when it comes to the San Diego Real Estate market

My guess( little birdy ) is that he is in the mind set of 9.5 to 11 million a year depending on team, length, incentives, ...team knocking on the door ready to kick it in....a little less because the deal has very incentive rich goals that trigger on personal and team success. More per year from a team on the rise but still building which may curtail incentive dollars to be reached....the largest contrat he has ever signed is $7,000,000 per year......my offer would be something like a 2 year deal worth just under $20,000,000 in actual salary with incentives package totalling approx. 2 million to 2.5 million per year....9 million in 2021 with 2 million incentive = 11 million and 10,800,000 million in 2022 with 2.5 million incentive....and revised right of first refusal for the Padres that allows them to actually see a legit competing offer ( not some rumor on ESPN ) and specified time frame to respond, revise or replace their original offer....Rosenthal would be very savvy to have a ROFR of some sort allowed in any offer as it is used more in Real Estate but has always been used between a Seller, Buyer and Property and that is really what any player contract is.

Anyhow feel free to fire away and shred this contract idea....Personally I feel that if Rosenthal is really the last piece to this puzzle of wresting* away the NL West from the Dodgers (* take something, (especially power or control) from someone or something else after considerable effort or difficulty. )....then the money will be there....Peter Siedler will not let this chance slip through his fingers

Quote from fenn68 on February 3, 2021, 8:36 pm

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 3, 2021, 8:09 pm

Rosenthal wants a ring more than anything and he has already made over 21,000,000 in his career. He is a smart guy and has invested wisely in Real Estate so he has pretty well set himself, his wife and kids up for life after baseball so he will be looking at teams that can win the whole thing....Kansas City isn't it, Toronto maybe but they just signed Yates and he LOVES San Diego, his wife Loves San Diego and his girls Love San Diego . He has a net worth of over 15 million dollars if not more due to his contracts and is very savvy when it comes to the San Diego Real Estate market

My guess( little birdy ) is that he is in the mind set of 9.5 to 11 million a year depending on team, length, incentives, ...team knocking on the door ready to kick it in....a little less because the deal has very incentive rich goals that trigger on personal and team success. More per year from a team on the rise but still building which may curtail incentive dollars to be reached....the largest contrat he has ever signed is $7,000,000 per year......my offer would be something like a 2 year deal worth just under $20,000,000 in actual salary with incentives package totalling approx. 2 million to 2.5 million per year....9 million in 2021 with 2 million incentive = 11 million and 10,800,000 million in 2022 with 2.5 million incentive....and revised right of first refusal for the Padres that allows them to actually see a legit competing offer ( not some rumor on ESPN ) and specified time frame to respond, revise or replace their original offer....Rosenthal would be very savvy to have a ROFR of some sort allowed in any offer as it is used more in Real Estate but has always been used between a Seller, Buyer and Property and that is really what any player contract is.

Anyhow feel free to fire away and shred this contract idea....Personally I feel that if Rosenthal is really the last piece to this puzzle of wresting* away the NL West from the Dodgers (* take something, (especially power or control) from someone or something else after considerable effort or difficulty. )....then the money will be there....Peter Siedler will not let this chance slip through his fingers

Too much ... not really caring about what Rosenthal wants ... but if any team wants him they bid just above the competitor ... basically the lowest price that can get him ... and hearing no other high paying suitors ... that is probably less than he wants.

As you can tell, I am not as sold on Rosenthal as others ... would take him yes because he can be good but not at his terms ... just not for me that great a need.

Given what we have heard about Preller ... he has a max valuation process and will not go beyond that even if the market does and he bids initially at a lower level that he considers competitive .. the difference is his wiggle room. So we may be at the point where Rosenthal needs to come down to Preller ... Preller may not be going up to Rosenthal (if he would ... probably a deal would be done).

Quote from WindsorUK on February 4, 2021, 6:15 am

Am I missing something?

https://www.mlb.com/video/top-10-right-fielders-right-now-x0971

I just checked Will Myers stats on MLB.com, against ALL other RF's in major league baseball.

He was in the Top 10 of 12( TWELVE!) offensive categories, and in the top 3 in HR's, RBI, SLG, OPS, Doubles, Triples.

Now, I did not watch many games so can't speak to his defensive prowess but I'm fairly sure Will is not a butcher out there.

Clearly, all these assessments are purely subjective but it still pisses me off when people that are posing as so called "experts" ABSOLUTELY dismiss players for....whatever reason.

Rant over.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 4, 2021, 6:26 am

Most are lowering him for his inconsistency the last few seasons.

Somewhat understandable.

He should be in the top 10 but I’m guessing he needs a top 10 “full” season to sway most everyone else.

Quote from fenn68 on February 4, 2021, 6:56 am

It should be important to evaluate any player (including Myers) against the current players playing similar a positions. To that end, Myers was one of the all around better OF in 2020 but is getting under-rated by his past that many just will not move past.

Can’t totally have a blind eye to recent past seasons but need to be aware of current production. Way to easy to set a standard based on some theoretical elite level and then have a free shot for criticism for not hitting levels that are unrealistic for virtually all alternatives.

In Myers case, most are not taking into account how much worse most corner OF actually are.

Now it is a different question whether his contract is justified by his performance ... but that does NOT diminish the quality of his performance ... just the wisdom of the contract.

Quote from 3fingersplit on February 4, 2021, 8:07 am

Will Myers is a good player and a better athlete that was willing to play anywhere.....people that want to bash him have no clue because if they did they would also know that Andy Green did his very best to destroy this kid......it's amazing that they finally get rid of that idiot and Meyers and Homer both have big rebound years

Quote from Randy Manese on February 4, 2021, 8:48 am

Time after time last season, Myers was right in the middle of any rally the Padres had to overcome deficits.  He ran out everything hard and played with a joy that was wonderful to see.  The small sample size affects his current standings among RF's for this year's projections but I think you are going to see performance closer to what we saw last year vice previous years.  A healthy Myers is key to this line-up and I hope Easley keeps him locked in like last year.