Quote from BoosterSD on February 1, 2021, 12:06 pm

One of the RHH CF options that we were contemplating is off the board, as DeSheilds has signed with TEX.

Quote from fenn68 on February 1, 2021, 12:29 pm

Quote from BoosterSD on February 1, 2021, 12:06 pm

One of the RHH CF options that we were contemplating is off the board, as DeSheilds has signed with TEX.

On a minor league deal with ST invite. Looks as though he focused on potential playing time if he made the roster and with the lack of OF depth in TEX .... made a good choice.

Sitting behind Pham, Grisham, Myers, Profar probably is not that appealing. Might be a factor with any of the other FA ... at least until all other options fade for them.

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 2, 2021, 7:36 am

Quote from BoosterSD on February 1, 2021, 7:40 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 1, 2021, 7:19 am

In the category of "take it for what its worth" there's a rumor out there that Morejon will be traded.

Apparently there was an Instagram post about it from his girlfriend that was deleted...speculation for Hader.

Again....just a rumor but if it involves Hader and Morejon I though it would be worth mentioning at least.

 

Well, that is the type of player that Preller has been targeting this offseason. Hader has 3 years of control left, so fits the window that AJ has created for this team.

Would have to imagine that others would be involved. Morejon, Castillo, and Guerra for Hader.

SO intriguing.   I realize Hader has a longer healthier recent track record, but I'd rather hold Morejon & Castillo (for another trade if nothing else) and sign Rosenthal for "just" $, not players.   If ST really going to start on time (hard to believe), something has to give really soon with Rosenthal either way.

Quote from Randy Manese on February 2, 2021, 8:57 am

Despite the injury history of Morejon and Castillo, I too would rather hold on to both vice trading them for Hader or someone else at this time.  Potentially, and that's the teaser in baseball, Morejon and Castillo could be more valuable to the Padres as a mid-level starter and high leverage reliever, respectively.  Both have tremendous stuff but can't seem to stay on the field.  There is plenty of time to trade for a Hader - let's see what we truly have in ST. Would have loved Morejon to be in the trade for Snell vice Patino, but Tampa held the cards on that one.

As for Rosenthal, I think he goes back to KC over Toronto.  Would love to have him but he apparently priced himself out of our market given our other priorities.  Expect that deal to be done probably this week.

Quote from fenn68 on February 2, 2021, 9:16 am

To keep this in perspective .... have seen no media rumors on the Padres considering a deal for Hader ... let alone the specifics that may be used in a deal.

Actually doubt Preller would have Hader high on this priority list at this time. Same goes for Rosenthal. If they fell through the cracks and were available for a “bargain” ... sure ... but don’t expect that to happen.

This is a bit of self-generated debate.

Quote from fenn68 on February 2, 2021, 11:10 am

Preller and Greupner extended through 2026 and both promoted .... Preller to President of Baseball Operations.

Quote from fenn68 on February 2, 2021, 1:55 pm

Well we should see a lot of FA movement in the next week or two.

1. Every indication (and per Manfred) ... ST will start on time and for pitchers / catchers that is two weeks with position players soon after.

2. The are probably still over 100 FA of various talents still looking for jobs

3. Teams have pretty full rosters

4. Players on the fringe want to get into ST to win a ML slot ... can’t do that holding for their price.

That is the formula for a lot of FA signing in the next two weeks at team friendly deals ... minor league deals in many cases. GM should be busy sorting through these guys if they want to add.

This is the point were the Padres may add some players to compete for that 4th and 5th bench slot ... plus AAA insurance players.

There was some speculation that Preller may be holding back on moves to preserve some money in case the DH was approved to make a run for Cruz on a short deal. If that ship has sailed ... maybe some money could be there for good upgrades.

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 3, 2021, 7:35 am

Quote from Randy Manese on February 2, 2021, 8:57 am

Despite the injury history of Morejon and Castillo, I too would rather hold on to both vice trading them for Hader or someone else at this time.  Potentially, and that's the teaser in baseball, Morejon and Castillo could be more valuable to the Padres as a mid-level starter and high leverage reliever, respectively.  Both have tremendous stuff but can't seem to stay on the field.  There is plenty of time to trade for a Hader - let's see what we truly have in ST. Would have loved Morejon to be in the trade for Snell vice Patino, but Tampa held the cards on that one.

As for Rosenthal, I think he goes back to KC over Toronto.  Would love to have him but he apparently priced himself out of our market given our other priorities.  Expect that deal to be done probably this week.

Good analysis.  And I looked at some stats.  I think Hader is too redundant to Pomeranz.  Hader's career #'s, Pom's just since exclusively a RP with Milwaukee end 2019 + last year with Pads

Player             IP      Saves    H/9    HR/9     BB/9     K/9      WHIP     ERA

Hader          224           62       4.4      1.2        3.3          15.3      0.86       2.54

Pomeranz    45             6         5.0       1.0       3.6          14.8      0.96      2.00

In a small sample, so far Pomeranz roughly "is" Hader... but the Padres paid him > Hader on an even smaller sample that so far has paid off.

The thing that jumps out a little is the Saves.  Pagan has 22 in career, Pom has 9 (140 games started).  Entire healthy RP staff collectively has 46.  Could be worse, but definitely entrusting Closer on a "one of best teams in MLB"/WS contender to someone who hasn't actually done it full time for even 1 season is a little dicey.  Kirby had 57, Hader 62, Rosenthal.... 132

You are probably right that Rosenthal has priced himself out... and Pomeranz' deal 4 / 8.5 MM AAV is definitely a part of that.  Has to be looking at it & saying why can't I get 3 / 10 MM AAV?   But if ST report is truly 2 weeks away & it comes down to us or more $ with Royals, we'll see what he does.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 3, 2021, 7:59 am

Fenn, I forgot to mention I think your analysis was really perceptive that maybe the biggest issue with a Rosenthal signing is the 2022 $, not this season's.    Since about 2019, the 2022 season was always headed towards being the "peak" payroll year.  Covid $ realities have forced even more shifting of $ from 2021 to 2022.  These contractual players $ rises in 2022:

• Snell + 2 MM
• Pomeranz + 2 MM
• Clevinger +4.5 MM
• P. Johnson + 1.0 MM if not bought out
• Profar +3.5 MM if does not opt out (+3.0 salary +0.5 S.B.)

The contractual raises alone even without Profar are > Pham's 8.9 MM "saved" next year assuming he leaves as FA.

PLUS all existing ARB raises plus a potentially large new ARB class including "the biggie" of Tatis either Arb-1 or hopefully on a new contract.   It's possible that Padres simply can't absorb another 8 figure contract in 2022, regardless of how creative they get in 2021.

p.s.  I always thought the Nelson Cruz chatter was 100% wishful thinking & near 0% possible.