Quote from Brian Connelly on February 3, 2021, 8:34 am

Cruz was NEVER going to get a 2 year deal in $ tight 2021 at age 40.  Not the situation Rosenthal is in.

Formerly excellent closer showed he looks to be fully rebounded from major injury/surgery that recovery process he looked awful at times.  I think Rosenthal/agents are trying to get out of the gravity pull of Trevor May & Blake Treinen.  Rosenthal throws harder than both, had a higher K%, and is 1 year younger than May & 2 yrs younger than Treinen.

Hard to see a rational argument that he should be LOWER than the 2/15.5 for May &  2/17.5 for Treinen (overpay?)

He's either: 1) pushing unrealistically to be out of May/Treinen's range at a 3 yr level "alone" between them & Liam Hendricks.

or 2) possibly/likely getting negatively affected by losing the game of musical chairs with not enough teams able to sign him at all.

... I doubt he has to settle for 1 year, but if I'm the Pads I am ALL over that with low base, big incentives > Yates.  Base just > Pom's 6 MM, incentives up over 10 MM?

Quote from fenn68 on February 3, 2021, 8:55 am

Hard to know how Rosenthal got into this situation ... just demand way above the “high side” of what GMs thought (and they went a different direction with RP that would sign) or he just tried to be the last closer standing expecting remaining demand to get the needy GM to push over their high side value. The latter would be a high risk strategy if GM that want to get on with the roster and ST don’t find him that compelling ... no matter “potential” or analytics.

Time is against him getting his price ... 30 teams are just not going to waste time with him at some point. Think all the pressure is on Rosenthal’s camp.

Frankly if the rumors of TOR and KC are it ... doubt KC has the big money to go high and TOR has the money but marginal need yet not offered to Rosnethal’s price (or he would have signed). Demand side of the supply/demand equation seems light.

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 3, 2021, 9:07 am

Maybe reading into it a little much.  The outlier is Hendricks contract which seems a little absurd.

Never about "30 teams".  But up to his agent to ID realistic landing spots.  Padres HAVE to be one.  But think he's still got some leverage.  What if his agent says to Preller, "I'm about to call LAD re a 1 yr incentive heavy deal"... subtract from us add to them.... could tip the scales of the NL West.

Not saying any of that is happening, but Rosenthal isn't the only unsigned good player in an unprecedented weird $ tight offseason:  Ozuna, Odorizzi, Turner, Bradley, Paxton, Wong, T. Walker... and of course Bauer.

He (like many FA including star Japanese SP's) may wind up disappointed, but I'd be stunned if he ends up anywhere near Yates...

30 yr old proven healthy again vs. 34 yr old NOT proven healthy??

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 3, 2021, 9:08 am

Also, re: Rosenthal, at this point the few teams in on Bauer might be freezing the whole market:  1 team will spend all $$ on Bauer, the others will suddenly be back at the store (FA) for what's left with $ in hand.

Quote from fenn68 on February 3, 2021, 10:09 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 3, 2021, 9:08 am

Also, re: Rosenthal, at this point the few teams in on Bauer might be freezing the whole market:  1 team will spend all $$ on Bauer, the others will suddenly be back at the store (FA) for what's left with $ in hand.

If they spend it and if they spend it on a RP .... some may say Bauer is one thing but after that not spending?

Earlier I had him pegged at $8MM/1 year maybe with incentives / option in this market. I guess I just don’t have him classified as “reliable” bet to be an elite closer in 2021 off of his one month in SD. Then again, it only takes one team to think differently.

The comp to Yates’ deal was more my thinking “floor” if all went south for Rosenthal and he overplayed his hand well into ST. Side: good chance Bauer ... who is VERY confident he will be signed for big money ... will stretch this out and putting the Odorizzi / Walker / other SP in a tough position given even with Bauer off the market ... other GMs may be off in different directions or willing to “see what they have got” before continuing the pursuit of a high priced SP.

Risk all the way around.

Quote from MrPadre19 on February 3, 2021, 10:33 am

Just a guess but my guess is AJ has an offer to Rosenthal and he’s just trying to beat it.

Maybe it’s one year and he’s trying for multiple(likely) or it’s multiple years but lower AAV and he’s trying to beat it.

Could be wrong but I would think he’d prefer SD unless he just gets an offer he can’t refuse.

Then again....Preller really could be done other than some minor league adds at the start of ST also.

 

Quote from fenn68 on February 3, 2021, 10:35 am

With only 2 weeks to ST ... any chance of some strategic delay of a signing until ST begins in an effort to keep control of everyone for now?

At the beginning of ST (or soon thereafter), Wingenter and Clevinger become eligible to be moved to the 60 day IL and not count on the 40 man. By signing a player to the ML roster now will require a roster move ... but unnecessary in 2 weeks.

Basically don’t DFA anyone if you don’t have to ... use the added time to see who wins a slot in ST ... who gets injured ... who becomes valued as a trade chip before the season starts. Then if a DFA is needed ... and there will be out of the RP ... have a better view of the right out man out.

Doesn’t seem like the way Preller works ... and also unlikely a strategy embraced by any notable FA with other offers ... but something to consider.

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 3, 2021, 1:45 pm

The flip side is every team's roster is already full or close.  Are now seeing those "team x just claimed him from team y a month ago, now DFA again" guys shuffling teams or sometimes outrighted every time a FA signs since many teams are at 40 like us.

Rosenthal for Wingenter on roster is a no brainer.   15+ teams categorically will not claim a TJ surgery RP with 2+ yrs MLB service time & pay him 575K for being on IL all year.  15- teams like new high payroll Pads CAN afford to, but would they?  No way would any team take a healthy player - even the 40th guy - off roster now to add an injured player.  I still feel like Trey's upside is a highly unlikely waiver claim.  But Rosenthal or maybe Kevin Pillar the only FA I see out there worthy of risking his spot for...

... seems like you can wait into early ST for Greg Garcia?

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 3, 2021, 2:06 pm

Love all the debate on Rosenthal.  That's what these boards are for!

• Everyone keeps talking about his "10 IP with us".  He was excellent “all” 2020:

23 G  23.2 IP  11/12 Saves  12 H  5 ER  2 HR  8 BB  38 K  0.85 WHIP  .148 BAA   1.90 ERA

There’s also this I mentioned elsewhere:

• Rosenthal: 132 Career Saves   Entire rest of Pads Bullpen:  46 Career Saves

Those 2 things taken together to me lead to this:

• Our SP rotation by any measure is Top 5 in MLB.
• Our starting lineup offensively by any measure is Top 5 in MLB. Huge upgrade @ C + better @ 2B.
• Our Bullpen is deep & has a lot of upside, but is inflexible & not by any measure top 5 in MLB; addition of Rosenthal would make it dominant/ Top 5.  Even if a RP like P. Johnson or Strahm were subtracted for roster / $ room.
• Bench versatility is improved from Opening Day 2020. Kim replaces Ty France as much better defensive & possibly offensive middle INF.   Brian O’Grady (for now) replaces Josh Naylor as much better defensive corner OF & 1B.  Jorge Mateo (for now) replaces Edward Olivares as probably inferior defensive & offensive RH CF complement to Grisham.