Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2021, 12:52 pm

Given 2020 was so short and that makes any evaluation of RP even more tricky ... took a look at the main Padre candidates results as RP for the 2019-20 period .... innings pitched and WHIP since ERA and WAR stats can even be more misleading in that period:

1.  Pagan ... 92 innings ... 0.88 WHIP

2.  Pomeranz (L) ... 47 innings ... 0.91 WHIP

3.  Strahm (L) ... 54 innings ... 1.01 WHIP

4.  Adams ... 34 innings ... 1.05 WHIP (out of options)

5.  Hill (L) ... 57 innings ... 1.16 WHIP

6.  Stammen ... 106 innings ... 1.19 WHIP (out of options)

7.  Johnson ... 20 innings ... 1.20 WHIP (out of options)

8.  Altavilla ... 35 innings ... 1.46 WHIP (out of options)

9.  Williams ... 29 innings ... 1.70 WHIP (out of options)

10.  Guerra ... 22 innings ... 1.82 WHIP (out of options)

A lot of "small sample size" of ML work ... so ST will be critical to find who survives. However, on paper with 8 RP ... #1 - #7 are clearly ahead with #8 on the bubble. Actually #1 - #4 look to be very strong options.

Stammen ends up in the middle of the pack based on WHIP but does pitch innings as needed which may elevate his value over the course of a full season given can't really option the other players for a "rest" or to get a fresh arm. Basically we may see Stammen used a lot when the better RP options need a day or two off to keep sharp ... mop up?

For perspective:

Rosenthal ... 39 innings ... 1.46 WHIP

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 30, 2021, 1:48 pm

Quote from jcp2400 on January 30, 2021, 12:47 pm

Rosenthal is the most overrated reliever I have ever seen. People have short memories (or selective memories)

Sure his 10 IP was fantastic for the regular season, but he was horrid in the playoffs (4 IP, 6 ER).

He also had a terrible 2019 and a history of volatile seasons.

One year deal, fine. Multiple year deal??? Hell no

Short memories?

You’re saying 2020 shouldn’t count cause it was a shortened season then you cite 2019 as s “horrible season”  when he only pitched 18 innings -plus he was coming back from injury after not pitching at all in 2018.

So,let’s discount 18’-20’ altogether.

If we do that he only had one subpar season in his career and that was 2016 in Stl.

What are these “volatile seasons” you mention?

I feel fairly certain Rosenthal is now healthy and what we saw in 2020 is a better representation of what we will see in 2021 than 5 years ago for one season is.

But it could just be me.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 30, 2021, 3:08 pm

Chris Archer rumors.

Am I the only one who would rather have Tijuan Walker over Chris Archer?

 

Quote from hoffy51 on January 30, 2021, 3:44 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 30, 2021, 1:48 pm

Quote from jcp2400 on January 30, 2021, 12:47 pm

Rosenthal is the most overrated reliever I have ever seen. People have short memories (or selective memories)

Sure his 10 IP was fantastic for the regular season, but he was horrid in the playoffs (4 IP, 6 ER).

He also had a terrible 2019 and a history of volatile seasons.

One year deal, fine. Multiple year deal??? Hell no

Short memories?

You’re saying 2020 shouldn’t count cause it was a shortened season then you cite 2019 as s “horrible season”  when he only pitched 18 innings -plus he was coming back from injury after not pitching at all in 2018.

So,let’s discount 18’-20’ altogether.

If we do that he only had one subpar season in his career and that was 2016 in Stl.

What are these “volatile seasons” you mention?

I feel fairly certain Rosenthal is now healthy and what we saw in 2020 is a better representation of what we will see in 2021 than 5 years ago for one season is.

But it could just be me.

 

I think the Padres believe they have a window to go for it. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they signed Rosenthal to a three year deal.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2021, 3:45 pm

Think Rosenthal is the classic cost / risk / alternatives debate by teams and a number of teams are "interested".

Yes, he showed a flash of his old self in 10 games in 2020 and would love to believe he returned to his 2015 form. That was 6 years ago. 2016 was not great (14 saves / 4.46 ERA) and 2017 was good but not to his peak (only 11 saves / 3.40 ERA) then 2018 was the injury extending through 2019.

Does 10 games erase the past? Maybe ... maybe not. Can a team reasonable extend that 10 game performance over a full season for a pitcher who has not pitched that much since 2017? Then how does a team price that?

Sounds as though both TOR (lots of money) and KC are in the mix ... others? In this market could get $8MM on a one year deal but if he is holding out for a multi-year deal ... might take a while.

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2021, 3:56 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 30, 2021, 3:08 pm

Chris Archer rumors.

Am I the only one who would rather have Tijuan Walker over Chris Archer?

 

How about neither and save the money? Or Hamels (if healthy) on a one year deal.

The walking wounded. At least Hamels before 2020 stayed relatively healthy and productive. Don't know what to make of Archer .... been bad for awhile and Walker prior to 2020 was either injured or bad for the most part.

Probably would not spend any real money on any of them ... unless a 6 man rotation is a coming. Plus only on a one year deal incentive based.

 

Quote from jcp2400 on January 30, 2021, 7:30 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 30, 2021, 1:48 pm

Quote from jcp2400 on January 30, 2021, 12:47 pm

Rosenthal is the most overrated reliever I have ever seen. People have short memories (or selective memories)

Sure his 10 IP was fantastic for the regular season, but he was horrid in the playoffs (4 IP, 6 ER).

He also had a terrible 2019 and a history of volatile seasons.

One year deal, fine. Multiple year deal??? Hell no

Short memories?

You’re saying 2020 shouldn’t count cause it was a shortened season then you cite 2019 as s “horrible season”  when he only pitched 18 innings -plus he was coming back from injury after not pitching at all in 2018.

So,let’s discount 18’-20’ altogether.

If we do that he only had one subpar season in his career and that was 2016 in Stl.

What are these “volatile seasons” you mention?

I feel fairly certain Rosenthal is now healthy and what we saw in 2020 is a better representation of what we will see in 2021 than 5 years ago for one season is.

But it could just be me.

 

No one, and I mean no one  goes off how someone performed 5 seasons ago to predict how a player would perform now. At most, teams go back 3 seasons and heavily weight the previous one.

Discounting all of 18-20 is an exercise in futility. And Rosenthal was not particularly good in the playoffs. Everyone remembers 10ip 0 ER. I remember 2 IP 6ER when it mattered the most.

A three year deal for an oft injured, volatile player is not a good use of resources.

Quote from lafnboy13 on January 30, 2021, 8:52 pm

From MLB.com

Austin Adams looks like a bullpen sleeper
San Diego’s starting rotation has added Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove and now features five of the top 50 projected pitchers (Mike Clevinger would make it six, but he’s out for the year after having Tommy John surgery). A.J. Preller has not been nearly as active in the bullpen, with Kirby Yates leaving for Toronto and Trevor Rosenthal still a free agent. But maybe that’s for a good reason.

Not only does San Diego still have Drew Pomeranz and Emilio Pagán, but Adams looks like a potentially dominant arm. (To be clear, this is Austin L. Adams, the 29-year-old right-handed pitcher who has appeared for the Nationals, Mariners and Padres since 2017, and not Austin D. Adams, the 34-year-old righty who has appeared for Cleveland, the Twins and the Tigers since ‘14). Acquired by San Diego from Seattle in last August’s Austin Nola trade, this Adams barely pitched in the shortened 2020 season, after tearing his ACL in September ‘19. But he flashed big-time promise before that, riding a devastating slider to one of MLB’s top whiff rates and strikeout rates.

ZiPS is quite bullish on Adams for 2021. Although it conservatively projects him for 41 1/3 innings, Adams ranks fifth in K/9 rate (14.4) and 11th in ERA (3.05), despite a lofty BB/9 rate (5.7). Given that he has thrown just 42 big league innings in his career, Adams has a lot to prove, but if healthy he could prove to be a key bullpen piece for one of MLB’s most talented teams.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 30, 2021, 10:49 pm

Quote from jcp2400 on January 30, 2021, 7:30 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 30, 2021, 1:48 pm

Quote from jcp2400 on January 30, 2021, 12:47 pm

Rosenthal is the most overrated reliever I have ever seen. People have short memories (or selective memories)

Sure his 10 IP was fantastic for the regular season, but he was horrid in the playoffs (4 IP, 6 ER).

He also had a terrible 2019 and a history of volatile seasons.

One year deal, fine. Multiple year deal??? Hell no

Short memories?

You’re saying 2020 shouldn’t count cause it was a shortened season then you cite 2019 as s “horrible season”  when he only pitched 18 innings -plus he was coming back from injury after not pitching at all in 2018.

So,let’s discount 18’-20’ altogether.

If we do that he only had one subpar season in his career and that was 2016 in Stl.

What are these “volatile seasons” you mention?

I feel fairly certain Rosenthal is now healthy and what we saw in 2020 is a better representation of what we will see in 2021 than 5 years ago for one season is.

But it could just be me.

 

No one, and I mean no one  goes off how someone performed 5 seasons ago to predict how a player would perform now. At most, teams go back 3 seasons and heavily weight the previous one.

Discounting all of 18-20 is an exercise in futility. And Rosenthal was not particularly good in the playoffs. Everyone remembers 10ip 0 ER. I remember 2 IP 6ER when it mattered the most.

A three year deal for an oft injured, volatile player is not a good use of resources.

When a guy who missed a full season to injury and struggled upon his return from that injury has a bounce back year I guarantee teams consider his pre-injury performance in their evaluation process. Lots of guys struggle in the short-term after returning from Tommy John. He looked like he was back last year. It also wasn't just 10ip he wouldn't have gotten to us if he hadn't been good in KC. Still a small sample size, but he looked great and his track record suggests that last season was closer to the norm for him than 2019. His playoff performance was disappointing, but he also gave up 4 of those runs in a game that was all but over when he came in and he hadn't pitched in 5 days. It was also 4 innings not 2 though that doesn't make it much better. To judge him solely on that performance seems incredibly reactionary though.

In all likelihood none of this really matters though. I think he will end up costing more than the team wants to spend. I think AJ will be looking for a value play if he decides to add to the bullpen mix at all and I don't see Rosenthal ending up having to take that kind of a deal.