Quote from fenn68 on January 29, 2021, 9:20 am

Did a bit of landscaping the Rosenthal signing parameters ...

1. Excluding Hendricks, the RP signings have fallen into two zones:

$6-9MM per year / 2 years (Hand, Treinen, May, Baez)

$5-8MM / 1 year (Yates, Bradley, Holland)

2. Still unsigned (of the better options) are Rosenthal, Coloma, Melancon

So still a supply and demand issue and the various teams’ opinion of Rosenthal’s worth. Then whatever Rosenthal is holding out to get in a deal. Not sure how the short 2020 coming off prior injury shapes teams thinking / risk evaluation.

Given the AAV is not that dramatically different low to high ... the hang up may be Rosenthal holding for a 2 year deal and teams not wanting to risk beyond 1 year? Maybe team “hedges” of vesting options and incentives are not yet appealing to Rosenthal if he now sees himself as the best remaining option and still a robust demand for RP/closers.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 29, 2021, 3:02 pm

Did a bit of landscaping the Rosenthal signing parameters ...

1. Excluding Hendricks, the RP signings have fallen into two zones:

$6-9MM per year / 2 years (Hand, Treinen, May, Baez)

$5-8MM / 1 year (Yates, Bradley, Holland)

2. Still unsigned (of the better options) are Rosenthal, Coloma, Melancon

Guessing Rosenthal trying to get 3 years actually; as in "better than all the other guys"... which he arguably is.

But really hard to see him getting above the 2/20 or 3/30 ( 7.5 / 10 / 2.5 buyout vs 12.5) threshold I proposed.

A big part of the reason I feel they should get him if they can hold the 2021 AAV to 7.5 (or less) is that due to the large # of out of options RP's Padres have, they really have no choice but to get rid of SOMEone further in the pecking order.  I have proposed Stammen, but no team will take his entire 4 MM + 1 MM buyout obligation.  Either have to eat some of that $, entice a team to take it all by adding a prospect/s to the deal, but increasingly tough to ID one "worth" enough to do so; Michel Baez the obvious guy, but subtracting him & Stammen simultaneously is a lot of IP AND (Baez) SP depth.  Maybe Marcano?  But doubt he + Stammen "worth" 5 MM total?

So a different trade option would be Pierce Johnson.  Trading him to primarily unload the $ & apply it towards Rosenthal.

Here's what these options would look like "net" $ wise...

Pitcher                2020                   2021               2022                            Other

Rosenthal          +7.5M                   +10M           +2.5 OR 12.5 M         Club option

Stammen         -4M -500K           -1M  (or 4M)            NA (FA)            500K incentives very likely '21

P. Johnson      -2 M -500K         -3M (or 1M)              NA (FA)            500K incentives extremely likely  '21

NET                   +3 M                 +9M (or 6 M)     +2.5 OR 12.5 M     If Stammen (& ??) @ 100% contract traded

                           +5 M                 + 7 M (or 9 M)     +2.5 OR 12.5 M       If P. Johnson @ 100% contract traded

So might be able to get Rosenthal for "Net" of 2 / < 15 MM; but have to trade P. Johnson or Stammen (or Matt Strahm) to do so.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 29, 2021, 3:52 pm

Quote from fenn68 on January 29, 2021, 9:20 am

Did a bit of landscaping the Rosenthal signing parameters ...

1. Excluding Hendricks, the RP signings have fallen into two zones:

$6-9MM per year / 2 years (Hand, Treinen, May, Baez)

$5-8MM / 1 year (Yates, Bradley, Holland)

2. Still unsigned (of the better options) are Rosenthal, Coloma, Melancon

So still a supply and demand issue and the various teams’ opinion of Rosenthal’s worth. Then whatever Rosenthal is holding out to get in a deal. Not sure how the short 2020 coming off prior injury shapes teams thinking / risk evaluation.

Given the AAV is not that dramatically different low to high ... the hang up may be Rosenthal holding for a 2 year deal and teams not wanting to risk beyond 1 year? Maybe team “hedges” of vesting options and incentives are not yet appealing to Rosenthal if he now sees himself as the best remaining option and still a robust demand for RP/closers.

Saw an article on The Athletic where Bowden was ranking the top 15 remaining FAs, and his projected contracts and most likely places they will land. Rosenthal was 7, Colome was 11; both getting 2 for $16M. And Melacon was predicted at 2 for $14. So all three really in that 7-8 per year deal. Funny, he doesnt list SD as likely spot for any of the 3.

So, does that mean that Bowden thinks that SD is out of money? Or, does he think that SD's bullpen is good enough without them?

IMO, if SD doesnt get Rosenthal and he signs somewhere for $8M per, then I really believe that Preller misplayed the Profar signing, as I think that Rosenthal is a more dire need for SD over Profar.

Quote from fenn68 on January 29, 2021, 4:57 pm

Guessing that even now Preller “could” sign Rosenthal (convince Siedler for the money) IF Rosenthal was willing to sign for whatever Preller has pegged as the maximum Preller would go.

We may not see it this way but Preller has been consistent this winter in downplaying the need for a closer be it Rosenthal, Yates, or any of the others .... maybe add RP depth but not a closer type.

Not sure whether Preller’s position is a result of his valuation of the current pen or something more about the price / value (to the Padres) of the various candidates. Clearly Yates and Rosenthal had voice no objection to returning to SD.

Last I heard the Padres may still be looking for another SP option for the #5/#6 roles and bench depth. Both cases probably a “decent” veteran who has fallen through the cracks of FA and ends up a value signing.

=====

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 29, 2021, 5:07 pm

Doubt if there is any market at this point for Stammen and his contract. Would not attach a prospect just to move the $4MM ... save the prospects to trade for more critical adds when needed (e.g. trade deadline / next winter).

Actually, if the DH is approved, prospects may be needed for an add via trade to keep the player contracts cost down.

Quote from Randy Manese on January 29, 2021, 5:37 pm

Going into 2020, we had Yates as the closer with Pomeranz (and his huge contract) and Pagan as the back-up closers.  Pomeranz obviously was the "closer-in-waiting" because of Yates' impending FA.  However, Yates got hurt, Pagan got hurt and then Pomeranz got hurt so all our experienced closer options evaporated.  We got Rosenthal to help us get into the playoffs and he gave us 10 IP with no runs given up but in the playoffs he gave up 6 ER in 4 innings.  I want to feel good about the possibility of re-signing Rosenthal but if he was such a hot commodity, why haven't other teams jumped at the chance to sign him.

Solidifying the rotation and improving the bench were going to be keys to 2021 and were prioritized.  We still have Pomeranz and Pagan and have the possibility of Johnson, Adams and Castillo as back-up closers so why not wait until the season unfolds and see what we actually have vice spending millions on a 16 IP who, despite that clutch effort against St. Louis, did not do that well in the playoffs?  As usual, there will be plenty of opportunities to add RPs because that happens year after year - maybe we'll trade for Hader or Diaz.  Like Milwaukee's Devin Williams last year, there always seems to be someone that pops out of nowhere and dominates.  Sometimes that person finally overcomes injuries or discovers a "new" pitch.  This is why bullpens are so volatile, so give credit to Preller for being extremely patient and striking when the need arises - this is San Diego not billion-dollar LA after all.

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 30, 2021, 10:48 am

IMO, if SD doesnt get Rosenthal and he signs somewhere for $8M per, then I really believe that Preller misplayed the Profar signing, as I think that Rosenthal is a more dire need for SD over Profar.

Can argue that Profar is overpaid on new deal, but really can't argue that Rosenthal is "a more dire need"... Pads just signed Pomeranz to 4 / 34 last year, then traded for Pagan & later Austin Adams.  I get none of those guys is Rosenthal, but the Padres right now have 11 true RP's on 40-man not including Baez, Morejon, Weathers.  If we add ANY RP, someone else by definition has to go.  This is why I do think it's Rosenthal or bust & talk of adding fringy middle relievers is a smoke screen.  I definitely wouldn't pay that $ to Melancon or Colome on this Padres team.

In OF, after the starting 3 it falls off a cliff, with Jorge Ona who has hardly played last 2 years (remember, he was injured in Summer ST & missed start of season even at the alt site) really the only near term prospect.   MLB OF depth was definitely a more "dire need" than RP.  Can argue there were other OF options, but really not a player with Profar's versatility out there as a FA.

 

 

 

 

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on January 30, 2021, 11:50 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 29, 2021, 5:07 pm

Doubt if there is any market at this point for Stammen and his contract. Would not attach a prospect just to move the $4MM ... save the prospects to trade for more critical adds when needed (e.g. trade deadline / next winter).

Actually, if the DH is approved, prospects may be needed for an add via trade to keep the player contracts cost down.

Another option is to trade just Stammen & eat some of his deal (as opposed to trading P. Johnson and all of his contract)

I think he's a player nearing the end of his career, but one where 2020 REALLY skewed his #'s:

Here are Stammen's 3 full season Padres (2017-19) AVERAGES:

70 G   80 IP  9+ HR   78 K  20 BB  1.13 WHIP  3.05 ERA ...  pretty damn good.  Has to be top 10 in MLB in RP IP?

He has in 2019 & 2020 gotten more hittable than 2017-18, and except for 2018 he does give up HR with his marginal FB velo.    But his value as an experienced RP in a season teams really need IP is higher to Pads & other teams than we think just glancing at his bad ERA last year (blown up by a few outings).  It's also how you use him.  Last year was to cover early innings for 5th SP's who couldn't get into the 4th inning.  This year more likely low leverage; already winning or losing big; just trying to eat the IP, "doesn't matter" if he gives up the 2 run HR.

Find it hard to believe a team wouldn't take his track record for half his contract (2 + maybe 0.5 of his buyout).  As Preller I wouldn't trade him for any less than that even with Rosenthal.

But if we do sign Trevor 🙂  it's him, Pom, Pagan 9/8/7.  Leaving:  Strahm, Austin Adams, Johnson, Stammen ALL for middle RP?

Too many cooks in the kitchen.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2021, 11:56 am

Most pundits seem to think the current Padre roster puts them as one of the best teams in MLB .... making for the next upgrade the Padres may be looking at not only 2021 but that move’s impact on 2022.

In 2022, with Pham gone to FA and “potentially” Profar opting out ... need to be positioned to fill LF and the likely DH. That moves me to payroll .... did a quick look at the roster and if Pham - Profar are gone and Stammen’s option is declined ... the current payroll still goes up from increases built into current deals and a LOT of arbitration decisions including Tatis, Lamet, Musgrove, Pagan, Paddack.

So, maybe an add focuses on a 1 year deal (and a reason Rosenthal is not on the horizon).

Have to hope Ona / Campusano develops to at least acceptable ML quality to supplement Kim for those LF/DH roles in 2022. Need some low cost quality in the line-up. Both should get the reps in AAA this year to be sure what they may bring before making any moves next winter.

Also, hopefully Gore, Morejon, and Weathers make the case for starting rules in the ML in 2022 ... making the trade of some the 2021 starters feasible to add that low cost bat while taking pressure off the payroll.

Worry about 2022 next winter and after the reality of 2021 develops ... but minimal urgent upgrade needs ... an eye on 2022 is fair.