Quote from fenn68 on June 30, 2021, 2:14 pm

Arizona Rookie Complex has started ... Padres (only 1 team) are now 1-0.

Looks as thought they added a number of better 1 year prospects that in the past may have debuted in the DSL.

Maybe a situation were the DSL does to start for another 3 weeks so they want see some players in action in the states until the draft in 2 weeks starts delivering a new crop of prospects.

Not sure on the current draft rules but think 20 rounds should deliver most as signees plus a more robust non-drafted FA group of signees. Then not sure if all will actually go to AZ (on the roster) in 2021 given we could be talking about 30ish new bodies .. maybe just show up for evaluation / orientation and get ticketed for a 2022 debut.

We will see.

Quote from MrPadre19 on June 30, 2021, 4:32 pm

I’m hoping we are able to target some high end College arms early in this draft.

 

Quote from fenn68 on June 30, 2021, 5:49 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on June 30, 2021, 4:32 pm

I’m hoping we are able to target some high end College arms early in this draft.

 

Not sure any “high end” college arms will be around when the Padres select. Probably will take some and see if they can be developed.

In the first round (about #28) guessing a high upside HS type (Preller’s favorites) but could go arm or bat. Padres need some more hitters in the system unless some of those Latin signings become the real thing.

Quote from fenn68 on July 6, 2021, 4:54 pm

Draft starts on Sunday and goes through Tuesday … 20 rounds.

Therefore the Padres should have 20 - 30 (with non-drafted signees) new players showing up in Arizona in the ensuing couple of weeks with another 2 months of games.

Not sure not he size limit on AZ rosters (there is one) but should we expect some:

1. Some of the current AZ roster players returned to the DSL?

2. Some released?

3. Some moved up to LE starting a sequence of player promotions in full season ball? They will have a half season in.

Hassell and Angeles are making a strong case for moving from LE to FW … Waldron and Elliott from FW to SA. Others too.

Quote from Randy Manese on July 6, 2021, 8:47 pm

From what I've read, there is no limit on the number of players on an ACL roster however there is a limitation on the number of players on that roster with 4 or more years of minor league experience.  One caveat is the 150 total minor league players that can be in a major league team's minor league system.  The DSL does not count toward the 150 man limit but the ACL does.

Padres system definitely not as strong as in the past with so many trades having culled the AA and Hi A levels, in particular.  With a lost season last year, it's hard to get a good reading on how players are really developing...I'm going to give most players at least another month for a better evaluation.  I watch all the Padres minor league teams on MiLB and you can see the struggles for consistency from AA on down.  I think this draft and the next international signing period will help rebuild the prospects lost in trade.  There are still a lot of international signees from 2019-2020 that have not made it to any roster yet - maybe the DSL this year.

 

 

Quote from fenn68 on July 7, 2021, 5:52 am

I remember the reporting of the 150 player limit but MLB must have delayed the start of that (or have some unreported exceptions) since doing a quick look at the Padres’ minor league ACTIVE rosters are around 157 (excluding DSL) then add another 35ish on IL or other classifications.

Add another 30 or so players this month … something has to give.

======

This is always a tough part of player development … telling some kids their baseball dream is over but reality is that most of the system players are not really ML level prospects … but the evaluation people have to make that call every year.

On the flip side (and philosophy differs by organization) … might not want to have the better prospects who are performing to sit at a level that does not give them a challenge slowing their development. Not normally a lot players in this category but developing the best prospects is the primary objective … should promote the deserving.

At LE, Angeles and Hassell are making the case … and not much blocking them in FW. Not much with other bats. Could see some arms shuffle … especially with the “older” for their league types.

 

Quote from Randy Manese on July 7, 2021, 9:36 am

As a group, it seems our minor league catchers have made very good progress up and down the organization.  Campusano had a slow start but he made the jump from Hi A to AAA with no minor league season in-between.  Moreover his physical and personal problems probably hindered him in establishing a good mental approach to the game.  I think his ranking as the number two catching prospect behind Rutschman will prove out during the remainder of the summer.  On the other hand, our pitching (both starters and relievers) has been disappointing.  A lot of work ahead for the those coming back from injury and huge steps backward from Gore.   The latter looks decent in the when going from a wind-up but seems to lose it with runners on base.

For those whose dream is about to end, I look first at the age of position players compared to the league competition as one of the indicators.  For example, at Lake Elsinore you have Jack Stronach who already is almost 24 and can't get regular playing time since the addition of Guilbe, Solarte and now Luis.  Some other guys like Batten and Kohlwey are doing all they can to hang on but others like Basabe and Harris may soon see the end of the line.

I think the Padres will draft a pitcher in the first round and, in fact, concentrate on pitching throughout the draft.  Even though we traded away more position players than pitchers, the mounting injuries throughout the system on our pitchers makes this an area of need.

Quote from MrPadre19 on July 7, 2021, 11:55 am

I feel the same way about concentrating on pitching.Everyone likes to say "best available player" regardless of position but this isn't like the NFL draft.The difference between the 103rd player on your board and the 140th player on the board is so small in most cases and even harder to quantify.Then theres the difference between 18 yr old high schoolers and 22 yr old college Seniors.

I too think we will concentrate on arms given there isn't a huge difference in rankings at our picks.

We need arms that may contribute sooner rather than later.

I'm hoping one of the 1st round College arms are there when we pick (Bednar/Cusick/Gavin Williams) but I also know AJ has been to see the HS kid Mozzicato(he of the 4 consecutive no hitters)  so maybe he likes him enough to pass on the older pitchers...at least in round 1 ?

Quote from fenn68 on July 7, 2021, 1:18 pm

Preller seems to really like the high upside HS picks early plus the “better” college types are usually scooped up by the time the 28th pick (Padres this year I think) since they are “safer”, often more easily to sign at on or below slot, and closer to making the ML. Looking at the Padres minor league system the Padres’ … looks as though the surviving picks reflect high picks going to HS and later picks going to College types. I think there is only one Padres’ college draft pick on the 40 man … actually the 60 day IL in Wingenter (15th round). All that makes me think Preller will go HS in round #1.

I would not be surprised that part of the PADRES’ system of evaluating and ranking the draft prospects includes a factor for development and projection that tips the scale towards HS types.

Probably difficult not to follow their internal ranking system (based on their own scouting / criteria) to get to the final debate on “close” choices. Over the past drafts, the Padres seeming have ranked “higher” players than some of the services (like MLB or BA). Plus then they have to follow the flow of the draft. So really “best player available” really is the “best player available on the Padres board based on their internal criteria”. Maybe the exception is gambling that the next player they like will still be available in with their following pick and select another they don’t believe will fall to the next round.

Having said all that … after the first three rounds expect a major focus on College pitchers.