Quote from fenn68 on February 13, 2020, 5:31 pm

Listened to one of the MiLB writers as she was asked about who she like as an under the radar Padre prospects. She identified Owen Miller.

I like that since Miller is a prospect that has a chance to be much better than his limited hype. SS/2B ... in AA in his 1st full season out of college ... hit an impressive 290/355/430 ... good defense ... and by all accounts one of those 100% baseball commitment guys.

Should be in AAA and keep an eye out for him being a leading candidate for the Padres' 2B slot in 2021.

Quote from Commie on February 13, 2020, 5:41 pm

Quote from fenn68 on February 13, 2020, 5:31 pm

Listened to one of the MiLB writers as she was asked about who she like as an under the radar Padre prospects. She identified Owen Miller.

I like that since Miller is a prospect that has a chance to be much better than his limited hype. SS/2B ... in AA in his 1st full season out of college ... hit an impressive 290/355/430 ... good defense ... and by all accounts one of those 100% baseball commitment guys.

Should be in AAA and keep an eye out for him being a leading candidate for the Padres' 2B slot in 2021.

Marty Barrett comp for me. Which is just fine.

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 14, 2020, 10:59 am

Just got Baseball America's Prospect Handbook!   FWIW:

Top 10 Systems in order:  Rays, Padres, LAD, Braves, Mariners (?!), Blue Jays, Twins, White Sox, Marlins, D-backs

Pagan trade tilts Rays slightly even more #1 now with +/- Logan Driscoll (#27 Padres prospect).

Unfortunately "on the rise" are D-backs (projected top 3-5 next year), Orioles #12, and Giants #13.

Frustrating to see the Giants closing the Farm system talent gap this fast after being bottom 5-6 last 3 years in a row.  At least the Rockies #28 are a dumpster fire.

One other thing jumped out at me:  BA breaks down the Source of top 30 Talent.  Pads had only 3 College draftees in their top 30: (#12 Owen Miller, #30 Lake Bachar... and Logan Driscoll).  So by many top 30 lists that don't include Bachar, Pads have as little as ONE of their top 30 from their college draftees!  13 International & 10 High School both a result of the 2016 Intl signing frenzy & the following 2017 Draft where first 6 picks were H.S.  College P's Q, Joey, Lauer have graduated.

Most other teams had double digit collegians:  10-13.  A few teams over half.  Only 4 teams similar to Padres composition:  Miami - 4 (10 prospects via trade from selling off / dumping payroll last few years), NYY & Texas - 3 (Overweighted International focus/success with 17 & 14 International respectively).   Team most like Padres composition/philosophy was Indians:  3 College, 12 International, 11 High School.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 14, 2020, 11:16 am

With 6 of BA's Top 8 in Padres' system:  #1 Gore, #2 Patino, #4 Trammell, #6 Morejon, #7(!) Munoz, #8 Baez   PLUS

another 4 in the next tier of #12-17:   #12 O. Miller, #13 Bolanos, #15 Cronenworth, & #17 Olivares

anywhere from Highly to Somewhat likely to graduate as prospects, it's hard to see Padres (still very "deep") Farm as a top 10 system next year even with: Abrams, Campusano, and a top 10 draft pick leading that class.  Only if:  widely better than expected performances system-wide (some depth "risers"), 2 of top 3 names NOT graduating, or unexpectedly becoming Sellers @ deadline.  But still likely top 15?

Ridiculous to really even look that far ahead, but what do you guys think?

 

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on February 14, 2020, 11:36 am

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 14, 2020, 11:16 am

With 6 of BA's Top 8 in Padres' system:  #1 Gore, #2 Patino, #4 Trammell, #6 Morejon, #7(!) Munoz, #8 Baez   PLUS

another 4 in the next tier of #12-17:   #12 O. Miller, #13 Bolanos, #15 Cronenworth, & #17 Olivares

anywhere from Highly to Somewhat likely to graduate as prospects, it's hard to see Padres (still very "deep") Farm as a top 10 system next year even with: Abrams, Campusano, and a top 10 draft pick leading that class.  Only if:  widely better than expected performances system-wide (some depth "risers"), 2 of top 3 names NOT graduating, or unexpectedly becoming Sellers @ deadline.  But still likely top 15?

Ridiculous to really even look that far ahead, but what do you guys think?

 

 

Guys like Head/Mears/Ona/Ornelas/Arias/Hunt/Lawson/Cantillo/Weathers/etc... all can take quantum leaps -- not to mention J2 2019 signings, and as you mention upcoming draft--- I think we will still be top 8 or so

Quote from fenn68 on February 14, 2020, 11:46 am

Not too worried the system will fall to pieces ... dropping the middle of the pack may be fine if there are still some “elite’ prospects leading the pack.

Keep in mind that IF the graduating top prospects actually deliver in the ML ... they will be around for 6 control years and Tatis, Paddack, Lamet have 5 more. That is a lot of time to build the next wave with prospects not even in the system. That also gives some logic to keep picking HS and spending on J2 high ceiling types allowing them the extra time to be ML ready.

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 15, 2020, 9:43 am

Pads have the #8, 34 (Comp A) & 45 (2nd rd) picks in 2020.   So should be one more strong draft year.

But one would hope from 2021 on we are drafting 15th or higher 1st round.   So WAY too early projection for 2021:

#"15", #"32" (Comp pick for losing Qualifying Offer FA G. Richards? --would have to sign 50 MM+ deal), #"52" (2nd), #"65" (Comp B).

Are Pads in any jeopardy with rising payroll, and presumably attendance, as they improve, of losing their Comp Balance draft picks?  Or are they "locked in" based on market size?  Anyone know?

With a level playing field/hard cap for International signings, the value of the Comp picks goes up as an advantage in total draft pool $ (matters "more" than it used to).  One of the last ways to "get ahead" if you're not LAD, NYY payroll...

 

Quote from Brian Connelly on February 15, 2020, 9:51 am

Where the top 30 come from is interesting, b/c right now still factoring in the "old" 'no Intl spending cap' system.  In a few years that will have played out, and the "where from" #'s will reflect a more level playing field International player wise, at least, and likely be more uniform across all the teams, but with differences showing real philosophical differences that are already clear (Baltimore: ONE Intl prospect, some teams: > 15 College prospects)

Pads High Intl &  IMO HS really a direct result of the big 2016 Intl spending spree & GM decision to go HEAVY HS in 2017 draft.

Other teams with high Intl #'s MAY have had a year like this still filtering through their Farm, or may have just focused on Intl philosophically like NYY & TEX seem to.

Quote from David Jay on February 19, 2020, 7:52 am

Quote from fenn68 on February 14, 2020, 11:46 am

Not too worried the system will fall to pieces ... dropping the middle of the pack may be fine if there are still some “elite’ prospects leading the pack.

Keep in mind that IF the graduating top prospects actually deliver in the ML ... they will be around for 6 control years and Tatis, Paddack, Lamet have 5 more. That is a lot of time to build the next wave with prospects not even in the system. That also gives some logic to keep picking HS and spending on J2 high ceiling types allowing them the extra time to be ML ready.

 

Just to clarify, Lamet is a FA after 2023.