Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2022, 1:39 pm

https://www.mlb.com/news/rule-5-draft-prospects-protected-on-40-man-rosters

 

Kind of a weird list for Padres.. Howell #9 can be a more versatile Azocar with SS and 2B as well as CF/OF experience and +++ speed..more pop than Sugar BUT a much worse hit tool

Ornelas I like too and maybe Lugo

While we don't have a 40 crunch protecting more than 4 of our guys maybe too much as the MLB club will need reinforcements..

Alfaro/Sullivan could be easy cuts ..currently at 33/40 .. 7 spots open to sign/trade for players and/or protect these dudes.. Only Lugo is ready to help the MLB club in 23 from the pitchers..and only Howell and Ornelas are close enough AA heading to AAA to help in 23 if need be..

Another possibility is perhaps a trade of 2 or 3 of these guys (or others not on the top 30) for pieces further out ..or maybe closer to (mlb) depth pieces not as highly ranked but perhaps already at AAA...

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2022, 1:52 pm

I like ALL 4 of the OFers from Dbacks.. they have too many OFers as is .. so all 4 can definetely be left unprotected for Rule V and all 4 have AAA ABs ..so they are basically ready to contribute at the MLB level or at least near ready.. I can see the SDP drafting one of these guys if AJP can afford to add to our 40 by then (Dec 7th I think is Rule V draft).. could also make one of those trades I was talking about ..like Iriarte + Vela for one of these dudes if we think position players are more lacking for the MLB club to supplement from..

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 12, 2022, 3:08 pm

Maybe Clev. leaves Joey Cantillo exposed?

I doubt it but he’s been great in AA….would love to have him back.

Can always dream.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2022, 3:27 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 12, 2022, 3:08 pm

Maybe Clev. leaves Joey Cantillo exposed?

I doubt it but he’s been great in AA….would love to have him back.

Can always dream.

 

They could because of injuries.. BUT I don't think he gets by 25+ teams or so..

Quote from fenn68 on November 12, 2022, 4:42 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2022, 1:39 pm

https://www.mlb.com/news/rule-5-draft-prospects-protected-on-40-man-rosters

 

Kind of a weird list for Padres.. Howell #9 can be a more versatile Azocar with SS and 2B as well as CF/OF experience and +++ speed..more pop than Sugar BUT a much worse hit tool

Ornelas I like too and maybe Lugo

While we don't have a 40 crunch protecting more than 4 of our guys maybe too much as the MLB club will need reinforcements..

Alfaro/Sullivan could be easy cuts ..currently at 33/40 .. 7 spots open to sign/trade for players and/or protect these dudes.. Only Lugo is ready to help the MLB club in 23 from the pitchers..and only Howell and Ornelas are close enough AA heading to AAA to help in 23 if need be..

Another possibility is perhaps a trade of 2 or 3 of these guys (or others not on the top 30) for pieces further out ..or maybe closer to (mlb) depth pieces not as highly ranked but perhaps already at AAA...

Not expecting anyone left exposed by other teams to be selected by the Padres … really hard to lock a 26 man roster slot on a contender … clearly not a pitcher and a long shot on a speed merchant given the new rules.

Now on the Padres side for protection … expect some “surprises” not ranked in the Top 30 added and some on the Top 30 left off. Lot of roster space … but guessing plus 5 max.

Remember the Padres have to strategize who another team may select and keep for all of 2023 … so just because they have talent not necessarily enough in 2023 for a team to keep. A lot of A vs B decisions and we really don’t know how the Padres evaluate each and not go by the Top 30 stuff.

Also, might bias toward the players that actually may help in 2023.

Padres need more position player back-up than pitching so maybe an advantage for Ornelas and Howell then consider Kohlway, Hollis, Fernandez who all have some hitting skills (at least in the minors).

As for pitching would be surprised if Lugo and Vela were not protected but some non-Top 30 worth consideration would be Cosgrove and them some deep long-shots in Guerrero, Lincoln, Mundo, and Thwaits. Plus one real long shot … Justin Lopez the converted SS who was converted to a RP last year and was dominant in his first season. Being a RP … with talent … can get to the ML quickly and are generally the prime targets for Rule 5 selection.

Clearly not everyone can be protected but the Padres’ rationale likely is a lot different than ours.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 12, 2022, 8:05 pm

Pretty slow start to the offseason .. hardly anything happening on F and Ssturday.. but with GM Meetings M to Thursday probably a case of most GMs just getting back home and dealing with some internal options like Mets and Padres did..before tackling the rest..at least that's what I am thinking..even the hot stove baseball writers not posting much of anything

Quote from Randy Manese on November 12, 2022, 8:56 pm

Here are the players currently listed on rosters who are/were FA eligible & also Rule 5 eligible prior to Nov 15 Roster Freeze:

Catchers (9):  Valenzuela, Seagle, Homza, Zabala, Vizcarra, Quintero, Duarte, Cantu, Polanco

1b (4): Fernandez(c), Rodriguez(c), Luis, Diaz

2b/ss/3b (6): Hollis, Cedeno, Dale, Reyes, Basabe, Aquino

OF (9): Howell, Kohlwey, Ornelas, Fabian, Ona, Ruiz, Liberato, Malone, Rojas

SP (10): Iriarte, Vela, Waldron, Komar, Watson, Blanchard, Espada, Mosser, J Gonzalez, Rondon

RP (27): Cosgrove, M Lugo, Mundo, J Lopez, Bencomo, Geraldo, Bachar, Guerrero, Mayberry, Collett, Lincoln, O Hernandez, RPerez, Belen, Leasher, Schlicholtz, Fox, Minarez, Quijada, Quezada, G Morales, J Garcia, Thwaits, Vega, Landinez, Camarena, Burdi

I'm guessing Howell, Valenzuela, Hollis, Cosgrove, and M Lugo  have the greatest chance to be added to the 40-man; Iriarte, Vela, J Lopez and Kohlwey have an outside chance.  Padres have 37 slots filled, but could non-tender Alfaro and possibly do something with Batten or Sullivan to make some room for several of these prospects.  They could even do a minor trade to clear some roster space.

Quote from fenn68 on November 13, 2022, 2:45 am

Actually I have 34 on the 40 man (that includes the suspended Tatis who technically is not on the 40 man … but don’t think they can use his 40 man slot).

Then I would think the following would be on the bubble: Sullivan, Batten, Dixon, Kerr … getting them down to 30. Non-tender Alfaro and down to 29. So, a lot of flexibility for Preller on FA signings, waiver claims, Rule 5 protects, net plus trades.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 13, 2022, 3:49 am

OF Dominic Fletcher Dbacks ETA 2022.. #13 spec.. has the profile of a pesky 4th OF who plays CF very well despite not having elite speed.. is 25 yr old lhb and Rule V possible loss for AZ

With no depth at AAA ready and definetely not with Fletcher's overall game I can see Padres sending a AA or AAA arm or 2 they could easily project to loose in Rule V to Dbacks for Fletcher...

Dbacks have another 3 OFs who are between 13th and 25th ranked top 30 specs and Rule V decisions .. They also have EIGHT OF'ers on their 40 man roster so unlikely to protect ANY on the 4..

I can see an AJP move here where he sends 2 or 3 would be expose Rule V or borderline decision dude/s for Fletcher who could be (Mazara/Thompson 22) useful in SD over a 162 game season...

.346 .408 .591 .999 AA/AAA combined

.301 .368 .452 .820... at AAA

 

The other guy in AZ who could help is OF/1B Dominic Canzone.. he has a pretty good bat with pop.. also 25 and also likely exposed to Rule V

BTW AZ is at 39/40 so besides the large # of OF on the 40. They are up against it as well

On a related note perhaps Kohlwey will be 28 come 2023.. hasn't been below OBP of .381 (and often higher) 2019 - 2022.. and can play all 3 OF spots as well..  so maybe we ride with our own..