Quote from fenn68 on November 8, 2022, 6:47 am

Fangraphs has just dropped its Top 50 FA with some ranges of contract results. Generally lower than some of the other earlier projections.

Looking a exiting Padres:

#28 Manaea (31) 2 years / $10-12MM AAV … surprised they see him has the highest rated departing Padres AND 28th best!

#36 Profar (30) 2-3 years / $9-10MM AAV

#37 Drury (30) 2-3 years / $9-10MM AAV

#38 Bell (30) 2-3 years / $9-13MM AAV

#42 Clevinger (31) 1 year / $8-9MM AAV

—— Suarez not ranked

Quote from BoosterSD on November 8, 2022, 6:47 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 8, 2022, 6:43 am

I think AJ and Melvin are happy with Nola and his handling of the staff.

I just think we are barking up the wrong tree expecting an upgrade at C.

We need SP/OF/1B before worrying about C.

 

 

Might be, but there were rumors that SD was chasing Murphy at the deadline, so they may choose to upgrade C, and I think d'Arnaud would be a good get that costs less in prospect "cash".

Quote from fenn68 on November 8, 2022, 6:48 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 8, 2022, 6:43 am

I think AJ and Melvin are happy with Nola and his handling of the staff.

I just think we are barking up the wrong tree expecting an upgrade at C.

We need SP/OF/1B before worrying about C.

 

 

Totally agree … effectively a waste of payroll space / trade chips for marginal upgrade.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 8, 2022, 6:49 am

Quote from fenn68 on November 8, 2022, 6:47 am

#28 Manaea (31) 2 years / $10-12MM AAV … surprised they see him has the highest rated departing Padres AND 28th best!

#36 Profar (30) 2-3 years / $9-10MM AAV

#37 Drury (30) 2-3 years / $9-10MM AAV

#38 Bell (30) 2-3 years / $9-13MM AAV

#42 Clevinger (31) 1 year / $8-9MM AAV

—— Suarez not ranked

Of these predictions, Bell is the only one that I would be really interested in bringing back. And even then, there could be better options to spend that money. Although, Bell is probably the best 1B option.

Quote from fenn68 on November 8, 2022, 6:49 am

Quote from BoosterSD on November 8, 2022, 6:47 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on November 8, 2022, 6:43 am

I think AJ and Melvin are happy with Nola and his handling of the staff.

I just think we are barking up the wrong tree expecting an upgrade at C.

We need SP/OF/1B before worrying about C.

 

 

Might be, but there were rumors that SD was chasing Murphy at the deadline, so they may choose to upgrade C, and I think d'Arnaud would be a good get that costs less in prospect "cash".

That was then this is now … and the “base” roster is very different.

Quote from BoosterSD on November 8, 2022, 6:53 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 8, 2022, 6:27 am

BTW I did some math and might be shocked if we don't go above $260 in payroll..before going down to $235 (in 2024 to reset lux tax ($237))

The max of the 1st threshold for the CBT is $40M over the CBT, and that would be $273M. I fully expect that SD pushes right up against that number. Of course, that doesnt mean we can spend to that amount, since SD will incur penalties on all dollars spent above $233M with being a third time CBT offender (who would have ever thought this in SD by the way). I think the penalties if SD went all the way to $273M, would be close to $13M, so $260M in payroll with the $13M in penalties sounds about right.

Quote from fenn68 on November 8, 2022, 7:05 am

A random selections we have be tossing around on Fangraph’s list:

#9. Nimmo (30) 5 years / $20-21MM AAV

#13 Rizzo (33) 2-3 years / $16-18MM AAV (some comments in injury concern)

#14 Bassett (34) 3 years / $16-27MM AAV

#15 Eovoldi (33) 3 years / $14-17MM AAV

#17 Benintendi (28) 4 years / $14MM AAV

#18 Senga (30) 4 years / $14-15MM AAV

#21 Tallion (31) 3 years / 12-14MM AAV

#30 Conforto (30) 1 year / $12MM AAV (big injury risk)

#48 Pederson (30) 2 years / $9-10MM

—— Gallo (29) 1 year / $10MM

Those number looks workable for the Padres on SP … Senga at $15MM and/or Bassett (a Melvin favorite) at $17MM and/or Taillon at $14MM. One leaves a good bit for other adds. If go for two (Senga / Taillon) should have a slam dunk 5 man rotation and still have over $10MM to augment the offense … betting the return of Tatis and a full season of Soto can carry the offense with Manny.

Less excited about the price / value (for the Padres) of the hitters if it is at the cost of a lesser pitching staff. If they plunk Tatis in LF … looking for a two hitters (1B/DH) with a little over $10MM to deploy … could be workable given not looking for a premium position to fill.

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on November 8, 2022, 7:12 am

I like Drury at 3/21..Joc at 3/24..Senga 5/65-70.. Taillon on 3/33...

Saw a stat that Manea QS % was like #3 in the MLB .. but I don't like his drop in velo and his high change up was getting crushed from August on.. give me someone with better stuff ie Senga and Taillon

Quote from fenn68 on November 8, 2022, 7:36 am

Sort of seeing a combo of Senga / Tallion coming in at about $29MM AAV leaving maybe $10MM +/- for hitters. Based on Fangraphs … one of Drury / Pederson would take out the rest.

So, maybe should count on lower profile bats and get a $5MM type and fill the 2nd and bench wild card gambles (as was Drury in CINN last year). With a base of Soto-Tatis-Machad0-Cronenworth et al combined with a SP loaded #1-5 … might just work.

Since pitching seems to be more in demand … signing two SP MIGHT open the door to dealing someone like Morejon (only 3 control years and not yet a SP factor) for a ML hitter. Note good chance they move to extend Darvish so 2024 will still have four SP even if Snell is let go and replace him with Groome.

Personally just obsessed with depth in quality SP in 2023 since I have no faith in the depth of internal options to cover a 162 game schedule.