Quote from fenn68 on August 12, 2022, 8:11 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 12, 2022, 7:38 am

Nick Martinez is at $6.5 mil right?

I just don't think he will leave if he has that guaranteed and would still hold that player option for 2 more seasons after 23'.

So put me in the "Martinez opts in" Camp

 

On the surface I would agree he opts in ... don't think he has pitched well enough as a long RP to get better than $6.5MM from another team in 2023 but his contract does set up a longer term decision for him:

• 4 years/$25.5M (2022-25)
  • signed by San Diego as a free agent 3/16/22
  • $2M signing bonus
  • 22:$4M, 23:$6.5M player option ($1.5M buyout), 24:$6.5M player option ($1.5M buyout), 25:$6.5M player option ($1.5M buyout)
  • future salaries increase by $1M after any season with 20 starts

Basically he has to rely every year on the Padres not buying him out at $1.5MM ... which if he has a poor season or gets injured is possible. So, not really guaranteed $6.5MM going forward. Plus he is already 32 and maybe more guaranteed money is important.

The calculus for Martinez and his agent is can he get more guaranteed money from someone and how much "potential" does he give up for the guarantee? Basically right now he has $1.5MM guaranteed (the buyout) vs $19.5MM "potential" over 3 years.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 12, 2022, 8:17 am

Quote from fenn68 on August 12, 2022, 8:11 am

Quote from MrPadre19 on August 12, 2022, 7:38 am

Nick Martinez is at $6.5 mil right?

I just don't think he will leave if he has that guaranteed and would still hold that player option for 2 more seasons after 23'.

So put me in the "Martinez opts in" Camp

 

On the surface I would agree he opts in ... don't think he has pitched well enough as a long RP to get better than $6.5MM from another team in 2023 but his contract does set up a longer term decision for him:

• 4 years/$25.5M (2022-25)
  • signed by San Diego as a free agent 3/16/22
  • $2M signing bonus
  • 22:$4M, 23:$6.5M player option ($1.5M buyout), 24:$6.5M player option ($1.5M buyout), 25:$6.5M player option ($1.5M buyout)
  • future salaries increase by $1M after any season with 20 starts

Basically he has to rely every year on the Padres not buying him out at $1.5MM ... which if he has a poor season or gets injured is possible. So, not really guaranteed $6.5MM going forward. Plus he is already 32 and maybe more guaranteed money is important.

The calculus for Martinez and his agent is can he get more guaranteed money from someone and how much "potential" does he give up for the guarantee? Basically right now he has $1.5MM guaranteed (the buyout) vs $19.5MM "potential" over 3 years.

Padres can remove any provisions and make good on the entirety of the deal..and call it a day.

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 12, 2022, 8:20 am

I think Martinez can probably do better on the open market from a team that believes in him as a starter. Decent backend starters seem to be able to find 3 year deals in the high 20s to low 30s pretty reliably. He also has incentives tied to making 20 starts a year in his current contract. He might not be happy about being moved to the bullpen and may want a deal with more guaranteed.

I wouldn't be surprised if he's brought back, but I would be somewhat surprised if he exercises his option.

Quote from WindsorUK on August 12, 2022, 8:21 am

Is there a better LF in the NL than Profar, defensively? If this guy wins a GG, I'm thinking Preller figures out a way to keep the 2 GG's in the OF with Soto.

That said, what kind of return could we get if we packaged Cronenworth and Hader?  Certainly a decent prospect( preferably P or OF) or 2 in the mid levels? Kim would suit 2B and how many closers have we found on the scrap heap? Save ourselves $$$$$$ by shipping out Hader- dollars that could be spent on Bell?

Obviously we save even more money if we can move Kim. Does he bring back more or less than Jake?

Or hell, do we move both and give Rosario the chance to win the spot, opening up a lot of money and some 40 man spots?

I like both Jake and Kim but if we're going to create enough space to re-sign guys like Bell, Clevinger, Profar( if he opts out), Martinez( ditto), we have to think outside the box. Moving major league talent to stock up on some minor league prospects might be the way.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 12, 2022, 8:23 am

Manaea I would not offer at all... now

Clevinger gets QO if we can't resign (2 +1 /@$13each??)

Martinez and Clev back.. gives us a solid if not great 5.. if we want Martinez flexibility (and removing the 20 starts in favor of 100ip or just a $1 mil increase would be a good way to have him "buy in" to his unique role-- SP/piggy back SP/BP/part time CL)... then bring in a cheap 5th type (Davies?) And use Khner/Groome/Wethers in support...

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 12, 2022, 8:31 am

Quote from WindsorUK on August 12, 2022, 8:21 am

Is there a better LF in the NL than Profar, defensively? If this guys wins a GG, I'm thinking Preller figures out a way to keep the 2 GG's in the OF with Soto.

That said, what kind of return could we get if we packaged Cronenworth and Hader?  Certainly a decent prospect( preferably P or OF) or 2 in the mid levels? Kim would suit 2B and how many closers have we found on the scrap heap? Save ourselves $$$$$$ by shipping out Hader- dollars that could be spent on Bell?

Obviously we save even more money if we can move Kim. Does he bring back more or less than Jake?

Or hell, do we move both and give Rosario the chance to win the spot, opening up a lot of money and some 40 man spots?

I like both Jake and Kim but if we're going to create enough space to re-sign guys like Bell, Clevinger, Profar( if he opts out), Martinez( ditto), we have to think outside the box. Moving major league talent to stock up on some minor league prospects might be the way.

We are a WS type team ..we are not trading All Stars to start rookies or get prospects at anytime in the near future.. if we extend Soto.. then and only then we can perhaps move Jake (as Merrill should be ready..and Rosario should be in SD's bench gaining experience)...IF we do move Jake/Kim and/or Hader ot will be for MLB talent at other positions of need... aka C..1B.. CF.. I can see a case for going after Nimmo in FA (vs Profar) and LF being Tatis Jr (vs lhp at least) ..Nimrod and Profar probably worth the same $$ now . And Nimmo is an excellent CF..but he may get QO

Quote from Henry Silvestre on August 12, 2022, 8:42 am

I mean if we move Jake or Kim and Hadder to the Blue Jays for Alejandro Kirk sure..lets go

Even Kim + Hadder to Boston for 1B/DH Casas (top 20 all mlb spec) + Verdugo ..Lets go..

Otherwise we should have enough upper level AA/AAA bats and arms to reinforce if not supply the mlb club with some bench help

Quote from lafnboy13 on August 12, 2022, 8:42 am

Everyone seems to want to resign Bell. I am not in that camp. He is having a great year but what are the real chances he keep up it over 3?

Quote from fenn68 on August 12, 2022, 8:56 am

Quote from Jeremy Hill on August 12, 2022, 8:20 am

I think Martinez can probably do better on the open market from a team that believes in him as a starter. Decent backend starters seem to be able to find 3 year deals in the high 20s to low 30s pretty reliably. He also has incentives tied to making 20 starts a year in his current contract. He might not be happy about being moved to the bullpen and may want a deal with more guaranteed.

I wouldn't be surprised if he's brought back, but I would be somewhat surprised if he exercises his option.

Plus Martinez is healthy ... we have seen some pitchers getting signed to bigger guaranteed deals when injured and clearly with poor performance.

At $6.5MM Martinez is probably someone the Padres want given the status of the #4-5 SP going into the winter (remember the opt in / buyout decision happens right after the season before FA deals are made).

---

In the same vein ... the idea that re-signing Clevinger could be done on the cheap is very unlikely. Maybe do one will give him a long term deal with his injury history BUT given how he has performed a shorter / higher AAV deal seems probable for some team.

With the Padres concern about the CBT going forward ... high AAV for Martinez, Clevinger, et. al starts to build up if they are also looking at Profar and Bell.