Quote from WindsorUK on October 29, 2022, 11:09 am

Quote from fenn68 on October 29, 2022, 7:52 am

For reference Soto was moved to RF by WASH after the 2020 season … need to ask them why!

Right...looks like Soto manned LF for the Nationals in 2020 whilst Adam Eaton played RF.

Now 2021, Soto did go to RF for the reason I assumed....they had to hide a worse fielder( Kyle Scwarber).

Obviously Grisham is our best glove in the OF, let's see if someone can prove a worthy RF....to push Soto back to LF.

 

Quote from fenn68 on October 29, 2022, 12:39 pm

If we take the assumption (seemingly getting more likely) that Martinez, Suarez, and Profar will opt out, then the Padres fall about $20MM under the tax threshold and if we incorporate the other thought that they will go over by about $20MM (not counting the penalties) ... $40MM to deploy on salaries BUT:

Gone Clevinger, Manaea, Martinez, Suarez, Johnson, Stammen ... Profar, Bell, Myers, Drury. Back is Tatis ... let us say LF.

Offense: Nola - Cronenworth - Kim - Machado - Tatis - Grisham - Soto ,,, need two more for the starting 9 bats and 4 bats for the bench out of Alfaro - Campusano - Sullivan - Dixon - Batten - Rosario - Azocar ... basically no spare parts on the roster.

Pitching has the Snell - Darvish - Musgrove SP and Hader - Hill - Morejon - Garcia - Wilson - Crismatt probably the first 9 while seeking 2 (minimum) SP and 2 RP. Contenders being Groome - Weathers - Knehr - Contreras - Kerr - Castillo - Baez - Pomeranz (maybe but not betting on his full recovery) - Adams ( another more injured than available) and some non-roster arms who could be "close".

$40MM does not get all that much at the "quality" level. If you can sign them a major bat and a major SP will take out around $30MM of the $40MM ... leaving only $10MM to cover to starting roles ... solidify the pen and bench ... if they don't there is no coverage for injuries.

Since I am bias toward that 4th SP and one significant bat (low risk quality not gambles for either) ... that puts me in the position of trying to deal with all the rest for about $10MM ... going to need some "luck" signing the right pieces.

As a contender in 2023 ... and with all the major holes in the roster ... do you go for two big signings and fill around those adds with fringe adds OR do you go with a broader array of adds (maybe in the $8MM range) to cover more deficiencies? It is a 162 games season and the current core are not going to cover every inning of every game. Depth over a couple of stars? Either way they spend $40MM ... which route gets them to the playoffs?

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 29, 2022, 12:48 pm

Quote from fenn68 on October 29, 2022, 12:39 pm

If we take the assumption (seemingly getting more likely) that Martinez, Suarez, and Profar will opt out, then the Padres fall about $20MM under the tax threshold and if we incorporate the other thought that they will go over by about $20MM (not counting the penalties) ... $40MM to deploy on salaries BUT:

Gone Clevinger, Manaea, Martinez, Suarez, Johnson, Stammen ... Profar, Bell, Myers, Drury. Back is Tatis ... let us say LF.

Offense: Nola - Cronenworth - Kim - Machado - Tatis - Grisham - Soto ,,, need two more for the starting 9 bats and 4 bats for the bench out of Alfaro - Campusano - Sullivan - Dixon - Batten - Rosario - Azocar ... basically no spare parts on the roster.

Pitching has the Snell - Darvish - Musgrove SP and Hader - Hill - Morejon - Garcia - Wilson - Crismatt probably the first 9 while seeking 2 (minimum) SP and 2 RP. Contenders being Groome - Weathers - Knehr - Contreras - Kerr - Castillo - Baez - Pomeranz (maybe but not betting on his full recovery) - Adams ( another more injured than available) and some non-roster arms who could be "close".

$40MM does not get all that much at the "quality" level. If you can sign them a major bat and a major SP will take out around $30MM of the $40MM ... leaving only $10MM to cover to starting roles ... solidify the pen and bench ... if they don't there is no coverage for injuries.

Since I am bias toward that 4th SP and one significant bat (low risk quality not gambles for either) ... that puts me in the position of trying to deal with all the rest for about $10MM ... going to need some "luck" signing the right pieces.

As a contender in 2023 ... and with all the major holes in the roster ... do you go for two big signings and fill around those adds with fringe adds OR do you go with a broader array of adds (maybe in the $8MM range) to cover more deficiencies? It is a 162 games season and the current core are not going to cover every inning of every game. Depth over a couple of stars? Either way they spend $40MM ... which route gets them to the playoffs?

I dont know.. $40 mil = SP Senga (5/75 $15)..  JOC (2/16 $8).. Drury (3/18 $6).. Martinez (3/21 $7)... Suarez (3/21 $7).. still have $500k to Play..How? ALFARO non tendered $3.5 proj savings

But yeah Dixon/Campy and Co.. would have to step up to cover 4 bench spots..and Groome/Felipe/Lugo/Wethers and Co..to cover #6 and some of the BP departures and depth

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 29, 2022, 12:54 pm

1. Geoome/Wethers and Knher (maybe Waldon) ONE of them needs to step up or collectively they must = Sean's IP and at least = or > production

As of right now maybe a key to the early success of 2023 for our Padres.. Avila could be part of this formula as well if he is back and with the way he finished 2022...he should be..

Quote from JasonE135 on October 29, 2022, 4:11 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 29, 2022, 12:54 pm

1. Geoome/Wethers and Knher (maybe Waldon) ONE of them needs to step up or collectively they must = Sean's IP and at least = or > production

As of right now maybe a key to the early success of 2023 for our Padres.. Avila could be part of this formula as well if he is back and with the way he finished 2022...he should be..

I think the the Padres can hope (more likely pray) that one of Groome, Weathers, Knehr or Avila can step up, but none of them can or should be counted on by a playoff hopeful team. They are the typical 7 thru 10 starters on a good team, only to be used in case of emergency. Let us not forget 2021 and having to start Jake Arrieta and Vince Velasquez. I'm sure that the Padres haven't forgotten. Those 4 low ceiling, low floor seeming career minor leaguers fall into that kind of category: you can hope, but you are basically already f*cked. We need 2 starters minimum, 3 would be much better.

I am praying for Senga, a reliable #5 starter like Davies or something, and possibly a random and cheapML proven body looking for a bounce back to compete with them.

I can see us maybe signing 1 cheap replacement RP to replace Martinez, Suarez and Johnson but I expect the rest of the replacements to come from in-house. Some combination of Pomeranz, Adams, Baez, Lugo, Knehr, Kopps and Kerr, in that order.

I think the Padres may sign a 1B if they can find one cheap. They will likely be shopping in the shallow end of the pool there. I really don't expect them to sign a DH bat, not with Campusano and Dixon laying around and the possibility of using the DH to rest players. If you are at or over the cap, you don't spend money on a dedicated DH.

Quote from JasonE135 on October 29, 2022, 5:44 pm

Can someone please explain the Padres Lux Tax # next year to me?

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/payroll/&ved=2ahUKEwjCnMnF14b7AhXaZTABHcopDvwQFnoECBQQBQ&usg=AOvVaw0cts7DX3I0wC3sWFnD5hOY

According to Spotrac we have a projected Lux Tax number of roughly $207 million next year. That number includes all current payroll salaries and projected arb salaries of everyone on the current roster, but it also includes Myers, Profar, Suarez and Martinez. We all know that Myers will not be staying at $20 million, which will put us at $187 mil. If Profar, Suarez and Martinez opt out we will be at roughly $167 million next year. Even adding Eric Hosmer's $18 million Lux Tax number back in we will still be at $185 million. That is WELL below the base Lux Tax number of $233 million for 2023. So it looks like we have $48 million to spend if Profar, Suarez and Martinez opt out and $28 million if they opt in. Am I wrong?

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 29, 2022, 6:39 pm

I heard on the News that there is talk of possibly putting Tatis at first base

Someone just posted this on the SDUT Forum..

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 29, 2022, 7:14 pm

Quote from JasonE135 on October 29, 2022, 4:11 pm

Quote from Henry Silvestre on October 29, 2022, 12:54 pm

1. Geoome/Wethers and Knher (maybe Waldon) ONE of them needs to step up or collectively they must = Sean's IP and at least = or > production

As of right now maybe a key to the early success of 2023 for our Padres.. Avila could be part of this formula as well if he is back and with the way he finished 2022...he should be..

I think the the Padres can hope (more likely pray) that one of Groome, Weathers, Knehr or Avila can step up, but none of them can or should be counted on by a playoff hopeful team. They are the typical 7 thru 10 starters on a good team, only to be used in case of emergency. Let us not forget 2021 and having to start Jake Arrieta and Vince Velasquez. I'm sure that the Padres haven't forgotten. Those 4 low ceiling, low floor seeming career minor leaguers fall into that kind of category: you can hope, but you are basically already f*cked. We need 2 starters minimum, 3 would be much better.

I am praying for Senga, a reliable #5 starter like Davies or something, and possibly a random and cheapML proven body looking for a bounce back to compete with them.

I can see us maybe signing 1 cheap replacement RP to replace Martinez, Suarez and Johnson but I expect the rest of the replacements to come from in-house. Some combination of Pomeranz, Adams, Baez, Lugo, Knehr, Kopps and Kerr, in that order.

I think the Padres may sign a 1B if they can find one cheap. They will likely be shopping in the shallow end of the pool there. I really don't expect them to sign a DH bat, not with Campusano and Dixon laying around and the possibility of using the DH to rest players. If you are at or over the cap, you don't spend money on a dedicated DH.

So by your definition VALDEZ pitching tonight for Astros could never be counted on to give us 8-8 4.25 ERA type of year as a rookie or even 8-10 4.75.. which in essence would be what Manea gaves us...Because everyone of Wethers/Khner/Groome/Contreras/and Waldon are higher ranked specs (top 30) than Valdez was in 2017 ..nowhere near top 30 for Astros ..the year before he came in as a rookie... hell Groome will be one more yr removed from TJ ..if he gets his ass in shape many think he can add +2 mph and >endurance to his pitching and at one point this dude was a potential 1.1 draft spec (like a Gore).. yes we can't expect a Rookie to come in and be Joe Musgrove or Yu Darvish... but 100% I believe one of these dudes can be Sean Manea 2022. Don't you?

8-9 4.91 is what Sean gave us in 2022

 

I mean Pedro Avila

G	W-L	ERA	IP	SO	WHIP
4	0-1	2.70	13.1	15	1.28

In his 4 appearances at the MLB level has been good

Quote from JasonE135 on October 29, 2022, 8:05 pm

I think that you have to admit that the Astros got lucky with Valdez if he was ranked that low. If the Padres get lucky yes, one of those guys can have a year like that for us but no, none of them can be counted on.

Groome has been in the minors since 2017. He has had 6 seasons in the minors, has gained weight and hasn't broken out despite being a high 1st round pick. Counting on him to break out after 6 years of disappointment and the Padres getting him essentially for free does not bode well for his future. Knehr started pitching for us in 2021, Avila in 2019. Neither one has earned a regular starting spot in that time. Neither has earned more that spot start duty, and that despite the Padres having a MASSIVE NEED for starters late last year. The Padres chose Jake Arrieta over both of them last year. That kills any faith I have in them becoming quality starters in MLB. Weathers had promise a few years ago but pitched terribly for us in the minors this year. No, I don't have real faith in any of them and I don't think that the Padres do either. I hope one of them can surprise us but it would be just that, a surprise.