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2023 offseason
#491 · October 30, 2022, 4:06 am
Quote from JasonE135 on October 29, 2022, 8:05 pmI think that you have to admit that the Astros got lucky with Valdez if he was ranked that low. If the Padres get lucky yes, one of those guys can have a year like that for us but no, none of them can be counted on.
Groome has been in the minors since 2017. He has had 6 seasons in the minors, has gained weight and hasn't broken out despite being a high 1st round pick. Counting on him to break out after 6 years of disappointment and the Padres getting him essentially for free does not bode well for his future. Knehr started pitching for us in 2021, Avila in 2019. Neither one has earned a regular starting spot in that time. Neither has earned more that spot start duty, and that despite the Padres having a MASSIVE NEED for starters late last year. The Padres chose Jake Arrieta over both of them last year. That kills any faith I have in them becoming quality starters in MLB. Weathers had promise a few years ago but pitched terribly for us in the minors this year. No, I don't have real faith in any of them and I don't think that the Padres do either. I hope one of them can surprise us but it would be just that, a surprise.
Well rookies in general can't be counted on...and i am not saying we need to count on any one of them..way I look at it ..we need to find 300 IP (roughly Sean + Clev) this offseason...if we sign a SP like Senga..that takes care of 160 or so of those.. Martinez(stays/resigns) gets 20 starts in 2023.. +10 × 5 inning (50 innings).. so we are left with 90 (+ Gores and others 100) so 190.. we need Groome and Co.. to give us that.
1. Yu
2. Snell
3. Musgrove
4. SENGA ?? FA?
5. Martinez
6. The Groome and Co. Bunch.. not relying on them to be anything more than Inning eaters combined or IF Groome (or other) emergece then great
* wouldn't mind a 2nd FA guy like Zach Davies or Eflin added for depth.. pushing perhaps Martinez to #6 and the young guns to the taxi squad.. But with payroll and all..probably going to ride with the kiddos to fill that role... I think Groome will surprise in 23....I mean we paid $39mil for him.. AJP must see something.. not like we needed to pay that $$ or get rid of Hosmer at all cause it wasn't a salary dump...Pads are still taking on all of the $$ cap money.. so like Shields for Tatis (another dude Preller $$$ paid for) AJP and staff (had before and does now) brought in a kid they've been after pre surgery..and obviously he sees something in him
#492 · October 30, 2022, 4:18 am
BTW Groome's scouting report.. if you look at his tool grades and overall grade..tools scream 50 spec.. yet make up lowers him to a 45.. watching the dude pitch for Astros yesterday..Curve + Slider + fastball ok.. makes me a bit hopeful on Groome becoming at least a solid #5/swing a la Nick SP/BP dude.. for one ill be rooting for the young man
Scouting grades: Fastball: 50 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45
MLB Pipeline's No. 1-rated prospect in the 2016 Draft, Groome fell the to the Red Sox at No. 12 because of signability and makeup issues and signed for $3.65 million, still a franchise record for a drafted pitcher. He has avoid any off-field trouble but totaled just 66 innings in his first five years as a pro while dealing with lat and forearm injuries, Tommy John surgery and the pandemic shutdown. He stayed healthy, pitched a career high 97 1/3 innings and led the system with 134 strikeouts in 2021, overcoming a slow beginning to the year in High-A to finish with a strong three-start stint in Double-A. He reached Triple-A Worcester in mid-2022 before he was moved to the Padres at the Trade Deadline as the lone prospect return for Eric Hosmer.
Groome's fastball velocity isn't what it once was, as he now operates in the low 90s and usually touches 94-95 mph only for an inning or two at a time. His best pitch is a mid-80s slider that he refined at Boston's alternate site in 2020, as it now shows flashes of becoming a plus offering and has surpassed his upper-70s curveball, which scouts considered the best bender in the 2016 Draft. He has developed a low-80s changeup with tumble that helps him handle right-handers, who fared far worse against him (.619 OPS) than same-side hitters (.890) in 2021.
Evaluators aren't sure exactly what to make of Groome, who has puffed up to a listed 262 pounds and is less athletic than he was as an amateur. He throws strikes but might find more velocity and consistency if he got into better shape. He’ll try to show San Diego that he can still be a potential No. 5 starter in his second organization, but it might not be long before the Padres give him a look in the bullpen.
#493 · October 30, 2022, 4:42 am
Quick glance at 40 man roster..if u add Adams and Pomz (both 60IL) and subtract soon to be FA.. we sit at 35/40 (+Tatis won't count til 4/20/23 activation day)
So from that perspective and rule V (our own) protection + Potential FA adds..my thoughts
Sullivan gets cut +1
Assuming all 3 opt outs are exercised ..Suarez and Martinez back (Profar let go) +1 net
So 33/40.. other borderline calls Alfaro non tender/Adams non tendered/Batten? Dixon? Felipe?... so anywhere from 5 to 12 spots (baring trades) to play with this offseason..anyone have a list of potential rule V guys for Padres...?
Current 35/40...range to 28/40
#494 · October 30, 2022, 5:32 am
In 2022 we saw a lot of rookies come up (many for the 1st time and contribute to various degrees)
Gore/CJ/Suarez(unconventional rookie)/Wilson/Rosario/Batten/Khner/Campusano/Azocar/Ruiz..
Who could we possibly see in 2023?
Rosario in a more prominent role
A slew of BP arms like Lugo/Cosgrove/Felipe
SP like Groome and Waldon
But I have a Dark Horse.. #18 spec Tirso Ornelas. The lefty Mexican born player seems on the cusp of a breakout year and his sweet left hitting stroke and plate discipline can be just the type of bat that plays himself into a roster spot in ST or serious mid season consideration (a la Estury Ruiz 2022)...for 2023.. I been wrong before.. but also right.. stay tuned!
#495 · October 30, 2022, 6:39 am
Not going to be a 40 man issue in my mind. With the FA to be, non-tender candidates (Alfaro, Adams), DFA candidates (Batten, Sullivan, Dixon) ... and very limited Rule 5 protect candidates who are "slam dunk" choices ... probably more than enough room to cover all the FA they will sign.
As for Rule 5 ... a very long list of "eligible," but most are really non-prospects who the team will not even consider. Then there is the second tier who are maybe "on the bubble" as maybe being useful ML at some point but also unlikely to get selected in Rule 5 (and kept on the ML roster) ... a small gamble not to protect.
Given the Padres want to contend may opt to protect more near ML ready options than some lower level with a better ceiling. Don't really see a position player (unless they see something in Hollis or Ornelas) protected ... more likely they add some non-roster AAA insurance. The focus may be on RP with Lugo, Guerrero, and a few others they see as upside maybe without the results. Maybe a SP such as Vega.
Might get some surprises giventhe potential room on the 40 man ... and knowing a marginal add now could be cleared by a DFA later.
#496 · October 30, 2022, 6:47 am
I am not confident in any of the prospects in the system to make a meaningful contribution to the Padres in 2023 ... maybe see them in "as needed" fill-in roles ... but nothing to make me want to RELY on their contributions.
That leaves me with pressure to fill the "holes" externally ... and that is challenge give the number and payroll. RP is the one area where they can gamble on some internals.
Side ... bit worried about Rosario's upside readiness ... look at this EP vs Road splits and as I recall he was great in EP and bad on the ROAD. Can debate why but that difference is to cause concern since PETCO is not EP.
#497 · October 30, 2022, 7:27 am
Quote from fenn68 on October 30, 2022, 6:47 amI am not confident in any of the prospects in the system to make a meaningful contribution to the Padres in 2023 ... maybe see them in "as needed" fill-in roles ... but nothing to make me want to RELY on their contributions.
That leaves me with pressure to fill the "holes" externally ... and that is challenge give the number and payroll. RP is the one area where they can gamble on some internals.
Side ... bit worried about Rosario's upside readiness ... look at this EP vs Road splits and as I recall he was great in EP and bad on the ROAD. Can debate why but that difference is to cause concern since PETCO is not EP.
I think Ornelas being in the AFL is a clear sign that the Pads like him a lot..he is also doing quite well .296 BA and had a HR yesterday.. is it a mere ploy to build up value in an offseason move? Or is he part of the bigger picture along some of the other guys Pads sent to the AFL..Lugo/Merrill/Ornelas
#498 · October 30, 2022, 7:28 am
Yes I dont see the 40 as a major issue this offseason..
#499 · October 30, 2022, 9:26 am
Rule 5 players are usually grabbed by teams that are in rebuild mode and not teams in a contending window like the Padres. They also are players that their teams either don't really see helping anytime soon or are willing to lose.....to tie up a roster spot for a rule 5 player for the whole season at this point would be folly....a Rule 5 player is NOT going to put the Padres over the top.
#500 · October 30, 2022, 10:07 am
Quote from 3fingersplit on October 30, 2022, 9:26 amRule 5 players are usually grabbed by teams that are in rebuild mode and not teams in a contending window like the Padres. They also are players that their teams either don't really see helping anytime soon or are willing to lose.....to tie up a roster spot for a rule 5 player for the whole season at this point would be folly....a Rule 5 player is NOT going to put the Padres over the top.
Virtually no chance the Padres will select anyone in Rule 5 ... just a question of who they protect to avoid others taking them.
Since RP seem to be the coveted players selected in most years ... while at the same time the Padres may need to be better covered in RP ... good chance the players protected from Rule 5 may lean towards ML ready (or near ready) RP. The likes of Lugo, Cosgrove, Guerrero, and whomever the Padres see as real potential.
Other than Vega ... and he is a bit of a bubble type since he is not near ML ready ... not sure any SP will be protectied.
As for position players ... normally not the targets in Rule 5 (but some are taken and kept) ... Padres don't have much that need to be protected but given their real lack of position players on the 40 man (virtually no depth and a weak projected set for the 26 man) ... might sneek one or two in ... maybe if space is open (should be) and a secondary decision on DFA/non-tender moves if there a FA signings later or trades than net a plus 40 man player.
On Ornelas ... they probably like him but given his up and down performances ... may not fall into the "a lot" category. Since bats are not big Rule 5 targets they might not add him if they fill the roster with higher probability candidates and just risk him being selected AND KEPT.