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2023 offseason
#3551 · February 8, 2023, 11:03 am
Quote from Jeremy Hill on February 8, 2023, 9:42 amIf they were willing to take minor league deals with a minimal major league salary I think guys like Peralta, Grossman, Naquin, Gamel, and Solano could be useful. I don't think we're going to commit to any more than that financially for anyone left on the market.
Same goes on the pitching side. There are guys left I think they would bring in on a low cost deal, but getting them to take it is a different story. I think most of those guys would want to go somewhere with a clearer opportunity. Both Martinez and Lugo want to be starters and signed deals that reward them for succeeding as starters. They are going to get their chance to seize a rotation spot. I would think the guys that are left on the market would want to go somewhere where they'll have an easier path than they would joining a healthy mix competing to be a 6th starter or depth option.
Peralta had back surgery in the offseason so I don't know where he is physically at this moment, but perhaps why he hasn't signed yet..some if not all of these guys are going to have to check their egos and go Milb deals (like Drury did last season) and earned or luck (Drury only got a chance cause an injury in Cinci) themselves into a 26 spot
#3552 · February 8, 2023, 11:56 am
I can’t see … on the Padres … any of the FA position players deserving a ML contract. Plus can”t see a position player wanting to sign a MiL deal and “hope” for injuries to get called up. IF one of these position players is willing to sign a minor league deal … he (and his agent) will opt for a team that has a real weakness in their position giving them a better chance in ST to bump the competition and actually play in the ML. Not going to get a lot of playing time with the Padres’ everyday line-up and the player needs a lot of playing time to earn his 2024 FA deal.
Not sure there is much room in AAA for a comeback candidate … once the Padres option off the 26 man roster and considering all the non-roster options they already have probably double the candidates for the 13 slots.
Baring a trade … think the Padres are done.
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#3553 · February 9, 2023, 9:47 am
Well, part of our SP situation for 2024 and beyond just became more clear. SD and Darvish according to MLBTR have agreed on a 5 year $90M extension for Darvish to remain in SD through 2028, his age 41 season.
Seems a little long, and will have to see how Darvish ages over the years. But an AAV of $18M for the extension seems about the going rate for pitching this off season.
Up next.....Machado or Snell???
#3554 · February 9, 2023, 9:54 am
Quote from BoosterSD on February 9, 2023, 9:47 amWell, part of our SP situation for 2024 and beyond just became more clear. SD and Darvish according to MLBTR have agreed on a 5 year $90M extension for Darvish to remain in SD through 2028, his age 41 season.
Seems a little long, and will have to see how Darvish ages over the years. But an AAV of $18M for the extension seems about the going rate for pitching this off season.
Up next.....Machado or Snell???
Hopefully Machado. Wouldn’t mind bringing Snell back, but where do we get the money?
#3555 · February 9, 2023, 10:01 am
Quote from Notmyopic on February 9, 2023, 9:54 amHopefully Machado. Wouldn’t mind bringing Snell back, but where do we get the money?
Old Dodger family money! Nice to think about the old O'Malley money fueling our sleepy SD baseball team. 😜
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#3556 · February 9, 2023, 10:02 am
Although he is 36, 18M for a pitcher the quality of Darvish is a team-friendly contract just like Musgrove's 20M per season. It seems he's found a way to keep healthy through an entire season, after his 2021 season injuries, so he has the frame and the mechanics to make it work for another few years even if not at peak levels in the latter part of this contract. In 3-4 years, 18M per year will be what good (not great) RP are getting with starters, not even top starters, over 25M.
#3557 · February 9, 2023, 10:16 am
Quote from Jeremy Hill on January 15, 2023, 1:00 pmThere were talks of trying to extend Darvish and replace his current deal to lower his luxury tax hit early in the off-season. I think they'll probably try to revisit that concept. If they can get something done under a 21.5m AAV they could save some CBT money that way.
Nailed it.
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#3558 · February 9, 2023, 10:19 am
Well, the Darvish extension is longer than I would have expected BUT the AAV at $18MM is lower ... if he went on the FA market on a shorter deal the AAV given his performance would be in the low 20s. So (beyond his being good) the length is paid for by a lower AAV.
Also, Darvish's reputation as a guy who stays totally focused and in shape might have made the Padres think of Verlander and Scherzer still pitching with TOR quality.
Does address the big 2024 issue of Musgrove and ?????? as SP ... makes it easier to fill #3-5 (more flexibility) depending on 2023 performances.
Note that the new contract at $18MM AAV reduces the 2023 Luxury Tax Calculation (Darvish was carrying about $4MM more prior to this deal) ... so the Padres are now about $4.8MM under the next threshold. So some flexibility if they need to add to the 26 man active due to injury IL and beginning paying the call-up league minimum (or more if someone like Severino).
On the other hand, the lower AAV could be used to cover an expected higher AAV for Machado and still skirt the next threshold level.
#3559 · February 9, 2023, 10:28 am
Was just coming to say the same.If Yu has a good 23' and hit free agency another team would have signed him for a 4/$100 type deal and everyone would have thought it a good deal.....it's the 6 years that has some freaking out.But we're tip toeing the LT threshold,so the $18 per is the important part.
#3560 · February 9, 2023, 10:46 am
Quote from fenn68 on February 9, 2023, 10:19 amWell, the Darvish extension is longer than I would have expected BUT the AAV at $18MM is lower ... if he went on the FA market on a shorter deal the AAV given his performance would be in the low 20s. So (beyond his being good) the length is paid for by a lower AAV.
Also, Darvish's reputation as a guy who stays totally focused and in shape might have made the Padres think of Verlander and Scherzer still pitching with TOR quality.
Does address the big 2024 issue of Musgrove and ?????? as SP ... makes it easier to fill #3-5 (more flexibility) depending on 2023 performances.
Note that the new contract at $18MM AAV reduces the 2023 Luxury Tax Calculation (Darvish was carrying about $4MM more prior to this deal) ... so the Padres are now about $4.8MM under the next threshold. So some flexibility if they need to add to the 26 man active due to injury IL and beginning paying the call-up league minimum (or more if someone like Severino).
On the other hand, the lower AAV could be used to cover an expected higher AAV for Machado and still skirt the next threshold level.
Noted on the MLBTR write-up they have a different AAV recalculation than does Roster Resource ... a little higher but still room for adds. Might have to do with how 2023 is handled in conjunction with the extension.