Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 30, 2023, 8:35 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2023, 7:50 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 30, 2023, 7:17 am

Apparently, Wacha is really proud of himself. Looking for a 2 year deal for $30M. No wonder he hasnt signed yet. A little out of perspective if you ask me for a guy who is barely a #4 SP, and cant be counted on for more than 120 innings this season.

Come down to reality, and sign a two year deal around $8-10M, and maybe you can land in SD and get yourself a ring.

More likely he ends up with a 1 year deal (maybe some 2nd year option) close to $8-10MM. He is really rolling the dice on some team getting blinded by a very good 2022 and ignoring the not so good 2019-21 (3 years).

Odds are he returns to a mid-4 ERA type ... lower end of the rotation ... given the Padres' options for that role and the fact they are on the cusp of the next threshold which if they signed Wacha for $8MM it would be really around $15MM ... not where I would put my money.

PS: a 30 year old pitcher who wants to secure his future is all about the contract ... making a decision based on "a chance" of a ring is a not factor.

Pretty much Teheran (but Julio has the better/much better past, if he can find 80% of his former self he would still be > Wacha

Quote from BoosterSD on January 30, 2023, 8:37 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2023, 7:50 am

Odds are he returns to a mid-4 ERA type ... lower end of the rotation ... given the Padres' options for that role and the fact they are on the cusp of the next threshold which if they signed Wacha for $8MM it would be really around $15MM ... not where I would put my money.

PS: a 30 year old pitcher who wants to secure his future is all about the contract ... making a decision based on "a chance" of a ring is a not factor.

Would still trust Wacha as the #4 in SD over Martinez and Lugo. Both Martinez and Lugo make me nervous, and I think we are going to be in a bad spot come June SP wise.

As far as the money is concerned, gotta bite the bullet, pay the taxes, and get that ring. Too many variables in 2024 to worry about the money this season. And even with Wacha, Martinez, and Lugo SD will still have to make a big SP move at the deadline.

Wacha has made $29M in his career, so another chance at a ring could factor into his decision. Money is great, but a ring is the goal!

Quote from BoosterSD on January 30, 2023, 8:40 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 30, 2023, 8:35 am

Pretty much Teheran (but Julio has the better/much better past, if he can find 80% of his former self he would still be > Wacha

Wacha is probably better than Martinez SP wise, and definitely a better option than Lugo.

A rotation of Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, Teheran, and Wacha is better than Darvish, Snell, Musgrove, Teheran, and Martinez/Lugo.

Dont forget about Wachas experience in pennant chases and playoffs and WS.

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2023, 9:09 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 30, 2023, 8:37 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2023, 7:50 am

Odds are he returns to a mid-4 ERA type ... lower end of the rotation ... given the Padres' options for that role and the fact they are on the cusp of the next threshold which if they signed Wacha for $8MM it would be really around $15MM ... not where I would put my money.

PS: a 30 year old pitcher who wants to secure his future is all about the contract ... making a decision based on "a chance" of a ring is a not factor.

Would still trust Wacha as the #4 in SD over Martinez and Lugo. Both Martinez and Lugo make me nervous, and I think we are going to be in a bad spot come June SP wise.

As far as the money is concerned, gotta bite the bullet, pay the taxes, and get that ring. Too many variables in 2024 to worry about the money this season. And even with Wacha, Martinez, and Lugo SD will still have to make a big SP move at the deadline.

Wacha has made $29M in his career, so another chance at a ring could factor into his decision. Money is great, but a ring is the goal!

I still focus on Wacha’s 2019-21 which were not that impressive and not worth the level of money he wants on this team. He has been in the playoffs  seven times (a World Series in the mix) … did not win a World Series so probably knows that being on a contender does not guarantee a ring. Take the money an run.

Since I believe the Padres are currently built to make the playoffs with the existing roster … I would hold off breaking into the next threshold until the trade deadline when a good chance a better SP option is available as a rental (and at 1/3 AAV). Also, might need to save some money to pick-up a catcher mid-season or an OF when Tatis/Soto/Grisham go down with a season ending injury.

Easy to say just keep spending on every presumed minor upgrade … just not going to happen. Bide time … act when the need is the clear highest need.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 30, 2023, 9:29 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 30, 2023, 8:37 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2023, 7:50 am

Odds are he returns to a mid-4 ERA type ... lower end of the rotation ... given the Padres' options for that role and the fact they are on the cusp of the next threshold which if they signed Wacha for $8MM it would be really around $15MM ... not where I would put my money.

PS: a 30 year old pitcher who wants to secure his future is all about the contract ... making a decision based on "a chance" of a ring is a not factor.

Would still trust Wacha as the #4 in SD over Martinez and Lugo. Both Martinez and Lugo make me nervous, and I think we are going to be in a bad spot come June SP wise.

As far as the money is concerned, gotta bite the bullet, pay the taxes, and get that ring. Too many variables in 2024 to worry about the money this season. And even with Wacha, Martinez, and Lugo SD will still have to make a big SP move at the deadline.

Wacha has made $29M in his career, so another chance at a ring could factor into his decision. Money is great, but a ring is the goal!

I think Martinez is going to be pretty good ..maybe not a 6 IP per outing guy.. more like 5.1 type for 30 starts.. 150ish IP.. and probably around 3.95 ERA...

I dont expect Lugo to start more than 10x's a la Martinez 2022 (similar role)...

I do expect 1 or 2 of Groome/Teheran/Honeywell/Avila/Weathers and Font to claim #6 and take over for Lugo circa June 15th.. I can see Groome going 10-7 (20ish starts) 4.50 and giving us the same body of work Gore (better record because offense is a lot better) gave us BUT without the peaks and valleys.. more of a 6 IP 3 runs allow on a consistent baisis.. with about 8k/9ip 3bb/9.. type metrics

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 30, 2023, 9:31 am

I dont know why but I think (got a feeling) Morejon/Crismatt and one of Pomz/Garcia  gets dealt.. for an arm we do not yet have that gives us a solid 25 starts

Quote from BoosterSD on January 30, 2023, 9:33 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2023, 9:09 am

Since I believe the Padres are currently built to make the playoffs with the existing roster … I would hold off breaking into the next threshold until the trade deadline when a good chance a better SP option is available as a rental (and at 1/3 AAV). Also, might need to save some money to pick-up a catcher mid-season or an OF when Tatis/Soto/Grisham go down with a season ending injury.

Easy to say just keep spending on every presumed minor upgrade … just not going to happen. Bide time … act when the need is the clear highest need.

You are more worried about a position player injury than a SP injury. SD has double the offense it had last season. I am more concerned with SP. One of Darvish, Snell, or Musgrove go down early in the season with an injury, this team could be sunk by the Allstar break.

The need is now IMO when it comes to SP. SD has 3 #2 SPs, and a bunch of #6s that all have question marks. IMO AJ has missed the mark when it comes to SP this season, reminding me way too much of 2021. I guess we will see, Catchers and Pitchers report in 18 days.

You cant win the pennant in May, but you sure can lose it!

Quote from BoosterSD on January 30, 2023, 9:38 am

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 30, 2023, 9:29 am

 

I think Martinez is going to be pretty good ..maybe not a 6 IP per outing guy.. more like 5.1 type for 30 starts.. 150ish IP.. and probably around 3.95 ERA...

I dont expect Lugo to start more than 10x's a la Martinez 2022 (similar role)...

I do expect 1 or 2 of Groome/Teheran/Honeywell/Avila/Weathers and Font to claim #6 and take over for Lugo circa June 15th.. I can see Groome going 10-7 (20ish starts) 4.50 and giving us the same body of work Gore (better record because offense is a lot better) gave us BUT without the peaks and valleys.. more of a 6 IP 3 runs allow on a consistent baisis.. with about 8k/9ip 3bb/9.. type metrics

These are all way too big of IFs and HOPEs for a team with WS aspirations. I have no doubt that we can out slug many teams when it comes to the regular season. Playoffs are different, and I hope I am wrong.

Maybe Darvish, and more so Snell perform out of their arses in their walk years, and SD reaps the benefits in winning the WS.

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 30, 2023, 9:39 am

Quote from BoosterSD on January 30, 2023, 9:33 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2023, 9:09 am

Since I believe the Padres are currently built to make the playoffs with the existing roster … I would hold off breaking into the next threshold until the trade deadline when a good chance a better SP option is available as a rental (and at 1/3 AAV). Also, might need to save some money to pick-up a catcher mid-season or an OF when Tatis/Soto/Grisham go down with a season ending injury.

Easy to say just keep spending on every presumed minor upgrade … just not going to happen. Bide time … act when the need is the clear highest need.

You are more worried about a position player injury than a SP injury. SD has double the offense it had last season. I am more concerned with SP. One of Darvish, Snell, or Musgrove go down early in the season with an injury, this team could be sunk by the Allstar break.

The need is now IMO when it comes to SP. SD has 3 #2 SPs, and a bunch of #6s that all have question marks. IMO AJ has missed the mark when it comes to SP this season, reminding me way too much of 2021. I guess we will see, Catchers and Pitchers report in 18 days.

You cant win the pennant in May, but you sure can lose it!

Yeah I am not really worried about the position players as much..we have some folks that can at least hold serve if someone gets hurt.. and the idea of multiple position players down at the same time for a long period of time is pretty rare although I wouldn't temp the baseball Gods... we managed to do well with only Manny going when both Soto and Drury missed sometime in early Sept/... and we didn't have the depth we have now..

P is always scary part.. I think we have the depth ..but not sure we have a HORSE in the bottom of the rotation or in that Depth.. Still think we can do well to the deadline and then re-load.. but still think AJP will pull a decent rabbit out of his hat before opening day.. who and when remains to be seen