Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2023, 11:36 am

Buyer’s choice but could make the argument that spending the money on Bogaerts (a very good player) was the the best strategy and should have been focused on an upper rotation arm (controlled beyond 2023).

Bogaerts ($25.5MM) and Lugo ($7.5MM) cost the Padres $33MM. IF they put that money on Bassitt (signed for $21MM) would have still had about $12MM for another hitter for 1B or … or … or.

Even without Bogaerts the full season of Soto and Tatis and the addition of Carpenter / Cruz will yield a very potent offense not counting who they could add with that other $12MM. Adding Bassitt to Darvish, Musgrove, Snell would solidify starting rotation depth that falls off quickly. Would the Padres be better contenders / playoff team if that took that route?

At this point the only way to get the needed upper rotation SP is likely a deal at the trade deadline …

Quote from BoosterSD on January 30, 2023, 11:51 am

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2023, 11:36 am

Buyer’s choice but could make the argument that spending the money on Bogaerts (a very good player) was the the best strategy and should have been focused on an upper rotation arm (controlled beyond 2023).

Im sure you meant to say, not the best strategy. And if that is the case, I would probably agree with that statement. I can understand the argument that Bogaerts is insurance against possible missed time for Tatis who has yet to show he can make a full season and/or the possible departure of Machado. However, the Bogaerts move by itself displaces two Allstar level players in Kim and Crone, plus puts Tatis in a different defensive position as well, which was probably going to happen with keeping Kim at SS.

I agree that the money probably could/should have been spent on different players, such as Benintendi and Bassitt and probably made SD even better than the add of Bogaerts. However, when it comes to FA, you may never know how/why a player chose a certain spot. The Bogaerts/SP will probably be a discussion that will possibly come up many times this year, based on what happens with performances and injuries as the season progresses.

So as Mr. P. says, it may boil down to beating many teams 7-5 until/IF SD makes a SP deal around the trade deadline. Hopefully this is all moot, and SD sparks at the right time, and finally delivers a WS trophy to SD faithful.

Either way, this could be one of the most fun seasons in Padres history to watch.

 

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 30, 2023, 12:08 pm

I think we(and most Padre fans) all agree it seemed odd to sign Xander with our SP needs now....and going forward.

But,it's not like Preller doesn't know what's going on better than we do....despite what some of us may think....lol

He must have really wanted X or because he was able to lock him up for his career he preferred that over another SP.

He either has faith in the "fringe" guys we have or potential trades still in mind or a plan for 24' and beyond we aren't aware of.

None of us see a way to keep Manny and Soto AND sign SP's to replace Yu and Snell.Even if we just extend Yu and Snell there just isn't enough $ for all.

Maybe his "plan" involves Ohtani covering 2 positions SP and DH?

Still....it's hard to grasp the $$ it's going to take to build the rotation back while keeping all these bats.

Quote from BoosterSD on January 30, 2023, 12:24 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 30, 2023, 12:08 pm

I think we(and most Padre fans) all agree it seemed odd to sign Xander with our SP needs now....and going forward.

But,it's not like Preller doesn't know what's going on better than we do....despite what some of us may think....lol

He must have really wanted X or because he was able to lock him up for his career he preferred that over another SP.

Very true statements Mr. P. Preller never ceases to shock us with something out of left field.

After all the lay-a-way owners in the past of SD, we are lucky to have ownership that is willing to spend and invest in this team.

I still cant believe that SD has the 3rd highest payroll in MLB this season, only behind both NY teams.

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2023, 12:45 pm

Both Preller and Siedler want to win in 2023 AND remain playoff team going forward ... that is a real challenge given this team (actually a challenge for any team).

A lot of FA to be who will want more to re-sign plus a number of bigger ARB players ... Soto, Cronenworth, Grisham, Nola ... will be a challenge to even keep this team together (or replace the departures with equivalent player ... or better). Plus Machado is a wild card.

Padres really need to have several league minimum players to break through this year and next to help fund the "stars". Would seem to me that breakthrough has to come from the pitching ... #4/5 SP and RP ... not an upper rotation arm near (unless a major surprise development).

Wonder how Preller approaches phasing some of these league minimum options into the ML during 2023 to get a better evaluation of them going forward (while not costing the team wins in 2023).

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 30, 2023, 1:51 pm

Preller obviously thinks locking Tatis and Bogaerts up long term will be the base for the offense.

With rising salaries both(if remain healthy & productive) will be bargains in 5 years and beyond.

It's his plan for the "other" position players and the rotation that we all will have to have faith that he has a workable plan for.

I pray for health for our players and ALSO for our "savior" Pedro Seidler.

 

 

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 30, 2023, 2:49 pm

Quote from MrPadre19 on January 30, 2023, 1:51 pm

Preller obviously thinks locking Tatis and Bogaerts up long term will be the base for the offense.

With rising salaries both(if remain healthy & productive) will be bargains in 5 years and beyond.

It's his plan for the "other" position players and the rotation that we all will have to have faith that he has a workable plan for.

I pray for health for our players and ALSO for our "savior" Pedro Seidler.

 

 

In 10 yrs tier ONE tax (currently $237) is going to be close to $300 mil.. so there is a path to sustainability..

I think AJP and Siedler have made it clear they will spend BIG for All Stars.. for us that was Turner/Judge/Abreu or Xander.. not necessarily in that order... Perhaps the SP that we all saw as great Verlander/Rodon/Bassitt/Senga etc.. was not at that level vs the position players ..and not necessarily a fit for us be it too old/too many ?? Health wise or other factors (asking for too many yrs or too much $$)..or simply not a unanimous thumbs up (Senga) by everyone in the know..

If we are indeed all in for 2023.. I can see a SP 1 2 3 type at the deadline..such arms are just not available in trade atm.. Lopez is more of a 4-5.. and why AJP didn't go there.. Obviously we know AJP will "outbid" anyone for a specific player at any time in trades so not worry about "adding" to our SP down the line.. maybe even a Manea type close to the season opener too..

FENN asks a good ? In $$ spent.. so with an eye on next offseason

Do we sign Othani 10/500 SP/DH

Or Julio Urias 7/210 + KBO CF 5/62 + extend One of Jake/Kim or Grish long term

Quote from Henry Silvestre on January 30, 2023, 3:13 pm

The other thing with having 3 elite SP like we do ..it seems that AJP finds #4/#5 type SP rather easily.. be it from within or by acquiring them via trade (as minor leaguers or like Sean last minute deals)

Gore/Paddack/Quantrill/Lauer etc.. if not for Colin Rea (Luis Castillo)..  so in 6yrs as GM (2023 will be his 7) he has ID'd or promoted/developed an entire rotation ..some #1's some #5's and all SP in MLB rotations.. He needs to do 1/3 of that .. 3 SP in the next 3 yrs.. to keep us on the same path we are currently..and he has assembled a deep deep Pitching lifeline in our system.. who makes it, who doesn't will determine on many factors.. and as we know he is not afraid to deal (Wilcox/Patillo/Castillo hell Fried back in the day) for presumptive improvements..

If we keep the Big 4 together (or even add Othani to the mix) we can pretty much ignore position players and DH for a decade from a $$ obligation the other 5 or 4 positions + 4 bench spots would be covered from within or with lesser $$ FA like Carp and Cruz this yr.. perhaps with 1 other guy making $10-$15mil per..

From a P perspective

The Padres would be able to concentrate their $$ on Joe/OTHANI (or other) and one more top 3 type.. with 4 5 and 6 being young controllable arms which can be recycled for improvements aka Lesko/Snelling types down the road while improving any holes we may have at that time..

 

Quote from fenn68 on January 30, 2023, 3:52 pm

My mind was wandering around constructing a roster vs the current cost of just average players … let alone the big money stars.

(not considering players on the IL or in the minors) … a 26 man roster and what appears to be around $10MM for an average FA player (see Drury, Clevinger, et al) … that is $260MM for a “average” team.

Then consider Soto, Tatis, Bogaerts, Machado, Musgrove, Darvish (if re-signed) … six over $20MM now and the cost of adding a couple impact SP will be over $20MM each with no near term prospects at that level. Not unthinkable they could have invested between $190-200MM in eight players. Still have to fill 18 slots … if they were “average” via FA/re-signed that would get the team to near $370MM in the near term. That is the extreme case that will not happen as those 18 will be, in part, manned by low cost options (and maybe lesser quality). Even 1/2 “average” and 1/2 minimum still will push the total towards $300MM.

Setting up as a tale of two teams ….. a select group of high quality high paid “stars” supported by low/mid quality low paid fill. Still resulting in a very expensive roster. To make that work … need prospects to work out and fill those supporting roles at league minimum and maybe make low end FA signing such as Cruz or Engel. Probably need to avoid mediocre FA at “average” cost or even retaining some “average” players as they go FA. Beyond the needed SP adds … not sure much flexibility to add other high cost options.

Let’s enjoy (and win) in 2023 … Preller will have his hands full if Machado opts out, Soto gets a $30MM ARB decision (and likely to go FA after 24), Darvish/Snell/Hader go FA … it will take a lot of money to just get them back (or an equivalent replacement) let alone “improve” with high ticket FA.